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MEDIFAST INCMEDIFAST INCMEDIFAST INC

MEDIFAST INC

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2/18/25 - $med - I'll call BS... super spec. long2/18/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:MED I'll call BS... super spec. long - it takes a lot for me to want to play EPS in this tape, but this is one i've looked at in the past, it's a multi-level-marketing company selling health/ weight loss food and selling GLP related stuffs under OPTAVIA - but when you look at the amt of cash and even stuff like inventory net of current liabilities... it's almost impossible to say... this company isn't basically at it's theoretical floor. - i will probs dig in a bit between here and the close but here's the thing - THEY ACTUALLY MAKE SMALL POSITIVE FCF - THE COMPANY BASICALLY TRADES AT ZERO - ITS SHORTED AF so. yeah. i'm going to buy some OTM c's for next month b/c ANY and i mean ANY thing incrementally positive sends this stock up 10-15% or more... and this tape is a TOTAL MEME... and regards will trade anything that moves. ironically a bigger move will force even more call buying and do the whole gamma reach around dance. whatcha think anon, worth a small punt? V
NYSE:MEDLong
by VROCKSTAR
MED | This Beaten Down Stock will Rise Again | LONGMedifast, Inc. engages in the provision of healthy living products and programs. It offers the OPTAVIA brand, a lifestyle solution centered on developing new healthy habits through smaller, foundational changes called micro-habits. The firm's product line includes bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serve, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups. The company was founded by William Vitale in 1981 and is headquartered in Baltimore, MD.
NYSE:MEDLong
by DivergenceSeeker
1
8/16/24 - $med - Is it worth a look at $18. weird8/16/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:MED Is it worth a look at $18. weird - this one showed up on my radar again, i couldn't bear to pull the trigger in May at $22 and change - still a melting ice cube but sales misses are narrowing Q by Q - what really draws my attention is this thing is PILED with cash. the enterprise value of the business is $50 mn bucks. OBVIOUSLY if they continue to sink into the abyss there's no price i'd pay for that - but it's also 12 days to cover (massively shorted). in theory they don't burn much cash. - so what gives. does anyone reading this have a clue that this thing is worth a closer look. i'd LOVE to buy calls in this ape market against this high number of shorts. not like it gets delisted or raises/ dilutes in the next 6 mo. i suppose i could always keep the eye on it for $15 where it's theoretically "free". weird one to bring up on a friday. anyone have a clue that can help solve this puzzle in comments? V
NYSE:MED
by VROCKSTAR
2
Medifast stock is undervalued Strong Fundamentals: Despite market fluctuations, Medifast has demonstrated a history of strong financial performance. This could indicate that the stock price doesn't fully reflect the company's underlying value. Growth Potential: The weight management industry is substantial, and Medifast's business model positions it for potential growth. If the market underestimates this growth potential, the stock could be undervalued. Dividend Yield: Medifast has a history of paying dividends. A consistent dividend yield can attract income-oriented investors and potentially support the stock price.
NYSE:MEDLong
by StockBlog
5/23/24 - $med - GLP still gotta eat, interesting swing; spec!5/23/24 - NYSE:MED - hit my greedy "take a look" target today. so here i am *taking a look*. let's be 100% clear - this company is facing some totally chit trends, comping down 50% growth and who know where the bottom is. i'm taking a small (and i mean small) swing here for a few reasons, however 1) macro tape seems to be driving risk away from the most spec/ "no need to own" names and this is a high beta reversal of that trend 2) the implied fcf yield even on super conservative estimates is like 22-25%. and why is that defensible? 3) the model they have setup adjusts with sales people. so they're still profitable even in this hyper low comp sales environment. 4) GLP stuff. hilarious. i'd not touch that poison but if you're fat and lazy - power to u chubster. anyway. fat ppl will still need to eat, and so this solution while defn dented by overlap in customer base, still is relevant. 5) will assess in real time on my books/ i think a good take profit is a retrace back toward $25. this is a HIGHLY shorted name, and for good reason, but any reversal in risk (look at the vix - still tame) will probably give us a nice pop here. i play this spec stuff for hunting sake and keeping my skills short. small position, reiterate. super spec. careful. but take a look - interesting. -V
NYSE:MEDLong
by VROCKSTAR
Cheap compounder unduly punished after dividend cutHot take: there's alpha in buying dividend cuts Here's a contrarian belief I hold: dividend cuts are almost always good, because they extend the life and increase the terminal value of the company. However, the market almost always punishes companies that cut dividends. There are two reasons for that: 1) A lot of investors don't read financial reports and don't know the financial situation of the company until the dividend cut acts as an information signal. 2) Income/dividend investing tends to be very rules-based, with the main rule being that you should only own "dividend aristocrats" that have steadily increased dividends without a cut. Thus, there tends to be more sellers than buyers for a while after a dividend cut, because the income investors jump ship faster than the value investors catch on. A dividend cut can therefore present a good buying opportunity for value investors who can time it right. And there's another factor to consider, too, which is that not every dividend cut is a sign of financial distress. There are two kinds of companies that cut dividends: those that couldn't sustain the payout, and those that see a market opportunity and want to pivot to growth. Uninformed investors often punish both types of dividend cuts identically, even though the meaning of the information signal is quite different in the two cases. Medifast: an unduly punished compounder And that brings me to the case of Medifast, a small-cap nutrition and weight-loss company that discontinued its $6.60/share dividend last month. Was this because of financial distress? Actually, no. Medifast had $11.01/share of earnings and $15.57/share of free cash flow over the last 12 months, so it easily could have sustained the dividend. Medifast's explanation for the cut is that it wants to free up capital to pursue a growth strategy. With the recent popularity of GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Ozempic, Medifast wants to add GLP-1s as a core part of its health coaching business and quickly scale the business out. The dividend cut is a sign of distress only in the sense that Medifast earnings and revenue have declined since mid 2022, and the company is moving to arrest that slump and return its trajectory to growth. How cheap it it really? Let's look at Medifast's multiples. According to its last financial report, Medifast has zero debt and just $17 million in lease obligations. With a $578 million market cap and $113 million in cash and cash equivalents, that puts Medifast's enterprise value at $482 million. Over the last twelve months, Medifast generated about $1.2 billion in sales, $119 million in earnings, and $170 million in free cash flow, which gives it the following multiples: EV/earnings: 4.1 EV/sales: 0.4 EV/FCF: 2.8 That's a 35% trailing twelve months free cash flow yield. Now, Medifast is definitely more expensive on a price-to-book basis, about 3.0 P/B. But that's not necessarily a bad thing, as it indicates that Medifast is a capital-light business with a high return on invested capital. If it can get anywhere near the same return on its savings from the dividend cut, then there's a lot of growth potential here. We do have to be a little cautious about the TTM multiples, because Medifast may have been over-earning during this period. But if we use linear-modeled rather than real numbers, the results aren't dramatically different. The EV/earnings and EV/sales multiples change only negligibly, though EV/FCF rises to 4.0 (free cash flow yield of 25%). To be sure, analysts' forward estimates paint a more subdued picture, with a forward EV/earnings multiple of about 8.9 and forward EV/sales of about 0.6. But those are still good multiples, and it's important to note that Medifast has a long history of crushing analyst estimates. In the last fours quarters, it beat earnings forecasts by 99%, 92%, 53%, and 67%, with revenue beats ranging from about 1% to 10%. So the analysts may be underrating Medifast's prospects here, and I am looking for earnings at least 40% better than forecast. Even if they fail to monetize GLP-1s, they can buy back stock Even if I'm wrong, 8.9 and 0.6 are still really good multiples, making this an attractive value stock. And Medifast's dividend cut should free up capital not only for its growth strategy, but also for opportunistic buybacks while the stock is cheap. Medifast is my largest single name, at about 5% of my portfolio. There is support at the March 2018 low of $50.11 and the March 2020 low of $41.53. I'm looking for a double, to about $107.
NYSE:MEDLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
15
MED Stock Hasn't Looked This Cheap In A Long TimeMedifast's stock has slid over 80% from its 2021 high, putting its major valuation metrics at levels comparable to 2008, 2011, and 2020. Despite the massive decline, the company's financial position still seems to be quite sound - big cash position, healthy current ratio, massive profit margin and return on capital. On top of that, any long-term investor is prepared to collect a 10% dividend. For those more technically inclined, there is no clear support except for the 2020 level, which admittedly is still 35% below its current level. However, a higher than average accumulation of volume the last few weeks, combined with a divergence between the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and price may be indicative of a reversal.
NYSE:MEDLong
by thisbemax
1
$MED would show near x2 in shirt-term modeNYSE:MED is a company with a good perspectives on a long distance (1-2 years) with a stable metrics. On the short path (about 3 months) it can show more or less than 100% of price growth, which can be a good present for all who like to be prepared for the Christmas happy days. Goal for me is an are near 184. Does not constitute a recommendation. #investing #stocks #idea #forecast #furoreggs If you want to discuss, please subscribe and challenge my point of view )
NYSE:MEDLong
by furoreggs
MED - underrated stock?Hello my dear subscribers Finally I am back with new investing candidates. Today we will talk about Medifast Inc. It is personal services company, which made own product OPTAVIA for peoples, which want change their lifestyle and habbits on healthy and strong. Levels for entry are here: From 1-year profile we have 2 levels. First level is at 188.42 to 197 USD. That is lower part of market profile and price haven't fallen lower. And from that levels price jumped up. Here we can buy stocks with cheaper prices. Second level is at 223 to 235 USD. That was most popular price with biggest volumes and value for market. It is chance to breaking POC to grow up - it can be positive for both swing traders and long-term investors. Ok, now reasons - why I am thinking that MED will grow fine(source - Guru Focus service)? First: all 2018-2021 year company acts good with good financial result. Net margin is 11,18% and operating margin has meaning 14,67% ROE has meaning 91,53% Last 3 years EPS growth at 56% - which is unique for that industry. And here is no manipultion with financial results. Medifast Inc DO NOT provide activity, which is unusual for that industry. Second: really stable financial situation Low debts (10%), enough cash to pay for debts, high interest coverage and extremely high meaning ROIC (274%) cause strong financial stability for Medifast Inc. Third: well organized business Company works with clients directly, without any third parties. And allow work from home for couches and sellers. This new organization caused 92% of sellings. Company has good PEG ratio (0,44) and fast-circling product. Medifast Inc continue to buyback her stocks and makes strong investing in growth. In official statements Medifast Inc plans to move on Asia-Pacific markets. Strongest points are Hong Kong and Singapour. They are reasons, why at my opinion price and value of the company will grow after new year. So just expecting financial statement 10-K at 31 december.
NYSE:MEDLong
by ValueInvest_Pro
The moment to buy a potential 10+ bagger to hold for yearsFundamentally, this company meets most of the criteria for multiple baggers. Yes, it already is, in fact, a 100 bagger. But given the long term and current growth rates, it still has huge potential. P/E is much lower than the CAGR of earnings per share. It's a bargain at the current price. The quarter results, that came in yesterday: revenue growth 52% YoY. EPS growth 19.6% YoY. P/E - 16.2 (counted at the price of 217.88). And the projection numbers have just risen, too. Wait, what? I am buying! Now technically, you can see the macro 1-2-3-4-5 wave and the fibonacci correction that had past after that. Given the awesome financial report, I believe, it is time for another large rising trend.
NYSE:MEDLong
by Anya_Naf_Naf
2
Medifast bullish trend line crossA Bullish Trend Line Cross Medifast has just completed a bullish upward move across a resistance trend line. I've purchased a July 16 call option and also bought some shares. I'm hoping it will move up as decisively as it recently moved down, hitting $290 by early July. For confirmation, look for a candle close above the trend line today. If price closes the day below the trend line, this signal is invalidated. Fundamentals I estimate Medifast's forward P/E at about 17, forward P/S at about 2, and forward dividend yield at about 2.33%. P/FCF is about 18. These numbers are pretty middle of the road. But where Medifast really shines is its growth rate. Over a five-year period, it has averaged 7-8% sales and earnings growth and 11% free cash flow growth. Arguably the price multiples are low given that growth rate. S&P Global gives Medifast a 74/100 average fundamentals score. I give Medifast a 4/6 for its earnings outlook. It got a minor downward revision to its earnings forecast around June 1, which is why the price took a dive. But this massive downward move was a huge overreaction relative to the size of the forecast revision, and I expect MED to snap back to around the $300 level. Sentiment Medifast has a 9.9/10 analyst summary score, up 0.4 points over the last 30 days. The put/call ratio is somewhat bearish, at 1.6, but I expect that to improve after the bullish trend line cross. Technicals are net bullish, and I estimate about 23% risk/reward ratio here as long as it holds support at 261. There's 35% upside to the average analyst price target.
NYSE:MEDLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
13