MTH – 30-Min Short Trade Setup!📉
🔹 Ticker: MTH (NYSE)
🔹 Setup: Bearish Wedge Rejection + Resistance Flip
🔸 Rejection Zone: ~$69.00 (yellow zone + wedge trendline)
📊 Trade Plan (Short Bias)
✅ Entry Range: $68.85–$69.10
✅ Stop Loss (SL): Above $72.03 (white resistance level)
✅ Profit Targets:
• TP1: $65.21 (green minor support)
• TP2: $62.05 (prior support base)
• TP3: $59.66 (orange key demand level)
📐 Risk-Reward Notes
• Price rejected wedge top with bearish confirmation
• Support flipped into resistance at yellow zone
• Volume fading on retest = potential breakdown setup
• Room for downside toward major supports
🔍 Technical Highlights
• Clean rejection at wedge resistance
• Failed breakout = bearish pressure
• Lower highs forming structure breakdown bias
⚙️ Trade Management
• Trail SL after TP1 hit
• Scale out partials at major supports
• Watch for increased bearish volume on move below $68
⚠️ Setup Invalidation
❌ Breakout and close above $72.03
❌ Strong bullish candle with volume
❌ Price consolidates above wedge and horizontal zone
MTH trade ideas
A Deep Dive into Meritage Homes Corporation’s (MTH) Meritage Homes currently trades around $183, navigating through pivotal support and resistance levels. The RSI, oscillating at 48.17, suggests a neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold, providing a stable ground for entry considerations. However, the MACD indicates a slight bearish undercurrent with a signal line residing above the MACD line, urging caution for immediate bullish plays.
The recent Ichimoku Cloud analysis reveals a thinning cloud, suggesting a potential breakout scenario in the near term. Coupled with a fluctuating but supportive Average Directional Index (ADX) at around 30.39, the stock displays moderate trend strength, which could pivot to stronger directional movements with upcoming market catalysts.
Meritage Homes has demonstrated resilience, rebounding from a support level near $178. The current setup suggests an initial resistance approach at $192, closely aligned with the 20-day EMA. A breach above this level could set the stage for a test of the $200 psychological mark, a critical zone watched by many institutional players.
Investors should consider a long position if the price sustains a breakout above $192, with a stop-loss strategically placed around $176 to mitigate downside risk. On the speculative front, should the price action convincingly clear the $200 mark, a further rally towards $207 is plausible within Q4 2024, presenting a 13% potential upside from current levels.
For those inclined towards a bearish stance, considering a short position may be warranted if the price fails to sustain above the $180 pivot, with downward pressures potentially driving the stock towards the lower support at $166. This short setup should be protected with a stop-loss not far above $185, ensuring controlled exposure against adverse price movements.
Recent developments within the housing market and broader economic indicators should be closely monitored. Meritage Homes’ upcoming earnings, sector-specific news, and changes in interest rate policies could drastically influence market sentiment and, subsequently, price action.
Meritage Homes Corporation stands at a strategic juncture, where technical alignments and market fundamentals converge to present a nuanced investment landscape. Whether opting for a bullish or bearish entry, investors are advised to stay abreast of upcoming financial disclosures and market trends, which will be pivotal in defining the trajectory for MTH in the ensuing months.
MTH Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: when price clears 130.69
Volume: with daily volume greater than 594k
Target: 140 area
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 127.59 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward.
This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
$MTH, waiting for Price correctionMeritage Homes Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs and builds single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Homebuilding and Financial Services
Positive:
Yields high return on invested capital
Consistently increasing earnings per share
9 analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period
Trading at a low P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth
Has maintained dividend payments for 9 consecutive years
Liquid assets exceed short term obligations
Profitable over the last twelve months
Large price uptick over the last six months
Negative:
Stock price movements are quite volatile
MTH Cup and Handle FormingFirst cup and handle pattern I have drawn out. Would love some feedback. The setup looks great plus MTH is a great value buy with a DCF fair value of $202. I think it can hit at least 140 in the coming weeks with a lower estimate of about 120 if the handle retraces 2/3 of its advancement.
MTH: Breakout Confirmed, 24.23% Potential Profit!Description: MTH is trending higher and in an uptrend meaning that highs are getting higher and lows are getting higher. The uptrend line on the chart and the Trending Band Indicator (which measures trend) supports the Long Position.
Stats:
1. Ideal buy range: $103.2 - $108.3
2. Take profit: $132.93
3. Stop Loss: $101.31
4. Risk To Reward: 1 / 5
5. Accuracy Rating: 93%
ABC BullishMTH has managed to get caught in a small rising wedge after a long fall from a larger rising wedge. Seems to have recovered and ready to move again.
I calculated the targets using the AB leg. This is the impulse wave and just seemed like a lot but it is 51.30 long! I will play it by ear and see how the market plays out. We have had a several up days in a row so I am thinking it may be haircut time soon (o: This one is not up a ton like some in the market, I see support at 85.45ish. Monthly and weekly candles are bullish. I will press long and hope this one does not get in to another rising wedge.
Large effective volume and a pocket pivot today. (Chartmill) I have noticed large players do not always buy at the best possible entry which is close to support. Entry level means a lot to me because I hate looking at red in my portfolio.(o:
Effective Volume analyses the intraday volume on the minute level to determine what small and large players are doing in terms of accumulation and distribution.
A pocket pivot is a price/volume pattern. We say todays price forms a pocket pivot, when:
The price goes up compared to yesterdays close.
The volume today is higher than the maximum down volume of the past 10 days.
To screen for this:
LEV: Above Rising 20 SMA: The red Large Effective Volume line should be above a rising 20 day average. This filters for a rising large player EV line.
Acc/Dist: 5DER > 3%: The daily average ratio in the last 5 days should be above 3%. This means that on average, during the last 5 days, the percentage of the volume accumulated by large players is at least 3%.
Pocket Pivot: At least 1 PP in last 5 days: there should be at least one pocket pivot in the last 5 days. This may be a bit confusing, because this will require at least one pocket pivot in the previous days, not counting the one today. Although, after the end of the day, the pocket pivot from today will count.
Signal: Pocket Pivot Today: there should be a pocket pivot on the last/current trading day.
Not a recommendation