Noble Corporation | NEEnergy stocks score biggest rise in a month as OPEC+ cuts begin
Energy stocks closed an otherwise mediocre week in strong fashion, as oil traders who have grappled with concerns over the global demand outlook may finally see signs of tightening in the oil market.
Saudi Arabia and Russia started the week announcing fresh production cuts that will bring total reductions by OPEC+ to 5M bbl/day, or ~5% of global oil demand.
Supporting prices this week, U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected and gasoline inventories posted a large draw, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported.
But gains were capped as the Federal Reserve appeared to be headed for further interest rate hikes, possibly at its policy meeting later this month.
And while Saudi Arabia limits its production, supply is gaining elsewhere; Iran, for example, is increasingly circumventing U.S. sanctions, with oil shipments of ~1.6M bbl/day on average in May and June, according to Kpler and Petro Logistics, more than double the level of about a year ago and the highest since 2018.
Separately, the Biden administration said late Friday it will purchase another 6M barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Front-month Nymex crude oil (CL1:COM) for August delivery gained more than $2.00/bbl Friday to push the U.S. benchmark +4.5% for the week to $73.86/bbl, its highest settlement since May 24, while September Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed the week +4% to $78.47/bbl, its best settlement since May 1.
U.S. natural gas futures (NG1:COM) closed -7.7% for the week, settling at $2.58/MMBtu, as volatile weather in much of the U.S. complicated the outlook for demand.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (DBO), (USL), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (NRGU), (UNG), (UGAZF), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG)
The top energy sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE) finished the week -0.5%, placing it in the middle of the pack among the S&P's 11 sectors, but closed +2.1% on Friday, its biggest single-day gain in a month.
Oilfield services companies (OIH) Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL) and Baker Hughes (BKR) ranked as three of Friday's top four gainers on the S&P 500, +8.6%, +7.8% and +4.8%, respectively.
Top 10 gainers in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (RIG) +20.4%, (WAVE) +19.2%, (OII) +18.3%, (NE) +18.1%, (DO) +17.1%, (TDW) +16.4%, (NRT) +16.3%, (NINE) +13.9%, (IPI) +13.2%, (LBRT) +12.4%.
Top 5 decliners in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (ORGN) -12.7%, (PPSI) -11.8%, (NPWR) -10.7%, (MARPS) -9.9%, (MTR) -9.3%.
Since June of 2020, Noble Corporation Plc has undergone a substantial transformation while drastically reducing its total liabilities and ongoing financing expenses.Since June 2020, NE has filed and exited bankruptcy, acquired its former competitor Pacific Drilling, regained NYSE listing, and completed a merger with Maersk drilling. Over the period, total liabilities and quarterly net interest expenses were reduced 65% and 74% respectively.
Over the last several quarters, some offshore drillers have reported growing revenue.Quarterly revenue is plotted from June 2020 forward for NE and its offshore drilling peers. Recently, revenues across the industry have rebounded from their early 2021 lows. NE quarterly revenue (plotted in dark blue) has increased from $220M in mid-2020 to $586M in FQ4 22 (+166%).
While quarterly revenue has more than doubled recently, NE has also become profitable. Normalized net income has increased from -19% in mid-2020 to its most recent value of 23%. FQ1 23 estimated revenues are expected to remain elevated at $540.5M while decreasing slightly from FQ4 22 revenues of $586M.
Based on the peer average EV/Sales and estimated FY 23 revenue, NE's fair value share price was estimated at $ 62
