NE trade ideas
NE in Consolidation ModeThe sentiment for the drillers at this point is still slightly bearish overall. NE is also perceived as being a little weaker comparing to RIG etc in terms of backlog. That's why I think it has a good change to revisit $6.0 or even lower. The chart is just a reference and could be totally wrong.
The market also needs time to realize oil is going up permanently. Why do you think the Saudis organized the cut (regardless whether you think it could be implemented effectively)? Because they are desperate. Historically, when did this kind of desperation happen? At the bottom of the cycle of course. The Shale is just a financial scam. It works only if share holders keep pumping money into it.
Longs can wait. Bears couldn't. NE could see $20 sooner than you think. My guess is in late 2018.
NE Might Get Stuck in Consolidation for a WhileNE Might Get Stuck in Consolidation for a While, before heading up again.
Longs should hold and wait.
A More Plausible Shot Term Analysis of NEMy previous chart was rushed and while the setup may be possible, it looks strange (the time and scale don't feel right).
Here is a more plausible view.
NE Continues to Show Signs of LifeWindows Dressing sellers already sold. Now the buyers slowly but steadily come in.
Ne has become a safe bet now. Good for long term entry.
NE Held Up Pretty Well Against Bad EarningsI bought some NE and RIG calls today. You may not want to buy but you definitely don't want to sell. Worse thing that could ever happen to longs is to sell at the very bottom.
Today or Monday could be the bottom of NE. Probability? I say 70-80%. Why? Earnings is really bad but selling pressure was not that great amidst a down market, down oil day.
NE short term going to $6.9-$7.0NE short term is going to $6.9-$7.0, then fade till election.
Long term trend remain unchanged.
$NE breakout on watchNE is nearing that 6.50 resistance line, with nice volume accumulation. watching for the breakout soon!
NE - Long - Swing- Failed break-out about 2w ago
+ Prices retraced back and moved sideway since
+ Had a mini (almost hidden) break-out on 21st with higher than avg. volume
+ Prices has since moved sideway again painted multiple narrow range bars
+ Today's break-out bar closed strongly supported by very high volume
+ Fast EMA crossing upward, piercing through today's bar
: First Target at $7.45 range;
: 2nd Target at high $8
Down Trend is broken but it's being retestedNE's chart pattern is different from that of RIG's but the outlook is similar.
BOUGHT NE COVERED CALLBought shares at 6.07; sold the Sept 30th 6.5 call; filled entire package for a 5.78 db; max profit $72 (if called away at 6.5) (12.5% ROC).
NOBLE CORP (NE) very good shape technically and fundamentallyVery good discount price at these levels for Noble Corp.
Fundamentally the stock has a very good debt to equity ratio (less than 65%).
1.3 bn USD of current assets (30.06.2016).
Book Value per share is at 30 USD (30.06.2016), so a discount of X5.
The stock is trading at 5.90 usd.
With the price of oil at 50 - 60 for 2017, the stock could have a very good upside range.
NEXT WEEK'S COVERED CALL CANDIDATES: NE, CLF, AMD, WLL, OASHere are my candidates for covered calls next week. Right now, they're based solely on ROC metrics, the key being to get at least a 10% ROC if the shares are called away at the short call strike. Additionally, the focus is on sub 10.00 debit plays; underlyings of higher dollar value are generally more amenable to other strategies.
After looking at the charts, as well as doing some due diligence on the companies, I'll cull the herd ... .
$NE (O&G): Buy shares at 6.21; sell the Sept 30th 6.5 call; 5.85 db; $65 max profit (11% ROC).
$CLF (Mining): Buy shares at 6.09; sell the Sept 30th 6.5 call; 5.75 db; $75 max profit (13% ROC).
$AMD (Semiconductor): Buy shares at 7.62; sell the Sept 30th 8 call; 7.21 db; $79 max profit (11% ROC).
$WLL (O&G): Buy shares at 8.04; sell the Sept 30th 8.5 call; 7.36 db; $114 max profit (15.5% ROC).
$OAS (O&G): Buy shares at 10.27; sell the Sept 30th 11 call; 9.84 db; $116 max profit (11.8% ROC).
NE Hold a small tail @ Buy 1378 TO 1550 A Carb + Wave mark Some slow, still have a small tail.
SL1320 (-58 pips)
TP 1550 (+172pips)
#NE: Not nowLoss more than 35% after breaking down the main trend at 27, and still the knife is falling..i think 15.70--17 is area target.
NE- Overlooked Drilling Company with Huge UpsideI love stocks with low risk and high reward. Who doesn't? NE is just that. After consolidating at its' 4 year support line, and breaking out of what can be looked at as a diamond bottom, I believe this company can easily rise 30% from its' current price. NE is a fundamentally sound company with Net income and Revenue rising YoY since 2011. Its' first quarter net income came in over 60% higher then 2013's 1st quarter which indicates the company will continue growing its operations in 2014. The company has also seen its' debt levels rise since 2011, but with a Debt/Equity ratio of just .67 and a quick ratio at a healthy 1.53 I see this as no concern. With the energy sector being so strong, it is just a matter of time before everyone catches on to this company.
NE Finally Breaks Above Downtrend and ConsolidatingNE has been in a long-term downtrend, recently it finally broke above this trendline on high vol after recently trigger a vol stop buy, with the 50 dma above to recross the 200 dma and 8 ema well above the 21 ema, MACD and RSI are already pretty high, still really like this for long term and even short term into year end, bullish catalysts in tax-advantaged spinoff also will push this higher
