PCG trade ideas
PCG | Long at demand zoneLong @ Demand zone
Entry: 9.45
SL: 8.5
TP1: 11.4
TP2: 13.25
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FIRST TRADING DAY AFTER BANKRUPTCY - WEEKLY CLOSING IMPORTANT.FIRST TRADING DAY AFTER BANKRUPTCY - WEEKLY CLOSING WILL CONFIRM THE BREAKOUT.
fill the gap then go longhopefully they get approved with their chapter 11 if not ca gets to write a check for 50 million+ or so and control its assets according to gavin newsoms legislation last week that just passed. In any case over sold way over sold!!
Constructive PatternThis company went through hell with the wildfires and subsequent lawsuits over the last year or two, but now seems to be coming out of that.
I like this price action and think this is a good value.
Note: We MUST hold above $7, otherwise it'll most likely roll over. We are going into high fire season which is a risk, but I don't think this company is going anywhere, and if we break above $15 it would signal a big move further.
oil6.26.20 oil There are challenges with transitions....but if you are aware that transitioning markets can have abrupt breakouts and retests...you know what to expect and/or you can use this information.
PCG at Generational LowsSeems like a good opportunity to add some PCG for the long haul here. These prices only come around every 20 years it seems. Not investment advice, just a perspective I wanted to share.
follow up6.24.20 follow up from a couple of hours earlier.....plus a possible way for traders with limited capital to trade.
TRADES6.24.20 I think there may be reversals in bitcoin and oil. Gold broke higher to a resistance level, and so far so over is not breaking higher, and for some traders the silver may be a 135 reversal pattern. Some of the brokerage firms/ clearing firms are making it difficult to trade oil. If there's an interest in trading future contracts, I think the currencies are a good place to look. There are also agricultural futures, but I have not treated those for many years, and just don't have any recommendations to make about that. There may be advisories that help you with that, but some of these contracts, including gold can be affected by time of the year, and it is well known that agricultural contracts are affected by the time OF YEAR... so you need to know something about which contract to trade, in which contracts to avoid on those markets... which means you don't necessarily choose the next contract with the current contract expires... SO BEWARE. There's a very famous trader, I believe his last name is Schwartz who said that it's much easier trading futures agricultural and other contracts and then trading index contracts. , if you're young enough, AND YOU'RE MOTIVATED, this might be something to look into. I started talking about PCG... and ran out the clock before I finished. Since is no urgency to PCG other than there may be a long trade to retest the top of the lower box, there is time to talk about whether or not there will be a much larger move to new highs, which doesn't need to be determined at this time. A week or two ago I talked about oversold markets and reversal patterns in the DXY and the USDCAD... which had moved higher, and then corrected, and may be forming ABCD patterns moving higher.
PCG thesisThis is not investment advice just the ramblings of an insane trader.
I call this a thesis because its been 3 years in the making.
Anyway, when it dipped below 4 the second time I became very interested because "utility monopoly", cant go tits up unless broken up by super gavin. So I bought in the red circle. Then sold in the green circle, the blue X is where I fucked up by not holding half my shares and playing with house money. But profit is profit and I'm happy until tomorrow. What happens tomorrow? Friday June 19th? Not only is it Juneteenth it is the day that PCG will likely finally emerge from a 3 year saga of almost bleeding to death in bankruptcy. Why is this important? Well there are a lot of factors at play here:
1. Victims of the fire that caused the bankruptcy:
This class is interesting not only did PCG trick them into partially taking stock as compensation for their damages/loved ones deaths the $13.5 billion fund plus stock only goes to victims who didn't already have an insurance claim that was fulfilled. The victims had a sub clause that in order for the stock to be a viable payout PCG had to plead guilty... I mean this is a total shit show.
2. Monopoly status of PCG:
PCG is a monopoly no way its not and california was not cool with that; Dear gavin was looking to break it up because of public outrage over what happened, then coronavirus happened and that poor man well he got to wipe the sweat off his brow and take a breather. Not only did he not have to care about PCG anymore he had a greater threat that would distract from the ineptitude present in their inability to do anything about PCGs size. Now this monopoly status and the combination of providing a service that literally everyone needs means that PCG rakes in tons of cash like fucking truck loads. Despite having some really bad quarters of the past 3 years because of wildfire payouts they still have managed to not only stay in business but hold onto a decent cash reserve that will allow them to coast out of bankruptcy with a smaller debt pile than expected.
3. Pensions:
California has great pension plans for state and county workers, one of the best features of those pension plans is having PCG stock in them both common stock and preferred stock none of which have been printing dividends for 3 years. This is where the sweat in Gavin's brow comes into play not only did he dodge the monopoly bullet he dodged the retirement float debt bullet. PCG will most likely reinstate their dividend on the preferred stock before the year is out and it will probably come back on the common stock soon there after in 2021. This means that the pensions will have better float than the past three years. And the pensions will likely be buying this stock in gurney to make sure they don't miss the boat on the increase and potential to leverage the positions.
4. Dividends:
PCG dividends were only cut because the bankruptcy judge wanted them to be used instead to payout victims, once they leave bankruptcy the wildfire account is established and populated with cash and stock handouts. They will be looking to reissue dividends to the public again to gain a more favorable valuation.
5. Employees:
In response to the bankruptcy/wildfire demands PCG had to ramp up hirings so they could go out and identify poles and equipment that was theirs and so they could trim trees across the state. That's right PCG didn't even know what poles and equipment they owned across the pacific northwest, its beyond irresponsible but who cares necessity monopoly. These employees will likely be removed from the on going operations of the company once they emerge from bankruptcy since they will no longer be held to excessively stringent standard practices. They are coming into a situation where utilities are being held to more safety guidelines but SCE was not being held to the same standard PCG was while in bankruptcy so expect them to get a little more lax and have some layoffs in the near future to increase profits a little bit.
Lastly not only does this create a favorable position and potential growth situation for the stock lets not forget that the fed is printing free money right now. Any debt that PCG takes on will have minimal impact on its operating business and Hedge funds and other institutional holders will be looking to capitalize on this forward looking idea. I personally feel like rockets will result from this but I cant be sure. Is this going to be shopify? Fuck no, but at 10.80 a share this shit is way way way under valued.
We are talking about a multi state power monopoly that issues an essential service to people and gets paid for that service regardless of whether or not the actual homeowner can afford it. The only real reason why the price is depressed is because of the potential and literal gavin threat of it being broken up into multiple pieces and sold off. But now that the bankruptcy is going to end the antitrust situation will be harder to pursue, and corona virus made people all but forget this whole situation.
That's my two cents take it or leave it.
PCG6.18.20 I think this is a more clear description of the the market dynamics of PCG than the previous video that had value, but focused on different points. I had to give it some thought for why I was uncomfortable with my student's long trade even though it was a perfect chart and welll thought out....through the lines on the chart. This was an important video for me because I had to struggle through looking at the chart and the lines a little differently to justify my discomfort with this trade...as opposed to other trades which are much easier for me. TradingView is moving me to towards the bottom of the most listened to "education" in the past week despite "the numbers" which continue and the positive response that I have gotten from nearly 1,000 followers since I have started posting from October of last year. If they move me off the lists, I believe traders will not find my videos...which none of the people above me do not offer... to the best of my knowledge even though they are listed above me. This may be an oversight or other motivations...which I accept>>>but if you like the videos...please push the thumbs up button. If I get a sense that interest is falling off...I will spend my time in more productive ways. Many Thanks, Scott.
PG&E (PCG) is under Bankruptcy Protection - HOLDThe wisest option is to hold, but based on the below Fundamental analysis the idea is to go long.
PG&E (PCG) – The utility plans to raise $5.75 billion through public offerings of stock and equity units to help fund its emergency from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection . That’s in addition to about $3.25 billion in private stock sales.
Utility giant PG&E Corp. is readying an $11-billion debt-financing package that may be sold to investors as soon as next week as the company prepares to exit bankruptcy, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
PCG: short term - long. Long term - short sell!Got some thoughts disclosed on this chart.
I myself am going to sell as soon as we are testing 2nd price level and would rather not come back to this company for now.
Will keep my eyes on the Earnings tho
PCG 1D ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUTAscending Triangle is a repeatable trading chart pattern.
Ascending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
Whatever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
