Progressive (PGR): Auto Insurance Tailwinds Support RallyProgressive Corporation (PGR) is one of the largest auto insurers in the U.S., known for its direct-to-consumer approach and popular advertising campaigns. The company also offers home, renters, and commercial insurance, serving both individuals and businesses. With a focus on digital tools, competitive pricing, and data-driven underwriting, Progressive continues to grow its market share, especially among cost-conscious and tech-savvy customers looking for fast and flexible insurance solutions.
The chart recently showed a confirmation bar with rising volume, pushing the stock into the momentum zone—where price breaks above the 0.236 Fibonacci level of the current trend. This move signals increased buying pressure and could suggest the start of a more sustained uptrend if momentum stays strong.
PGR trade ideas
PGR in Sell Zone (short insurance overall)My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when at three of these events happen:
* Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones
* Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands
* Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level
* Price at Fibonacci levels
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price in selling zone at top of channels
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
Money flow momentum is spiked positive and over top of Bollinger Band
Price at or near Fibonacci level
Entry at $280
Target is lower channel around $250
Progressive Corp Progressively Degrading. PGRThere is a confirmation of short enter with break of the most recent lows. Fibs are indicative of some of the goals. I've decided to bring this example forward, as it is evident how a pure indicator based approach would be detrimental. In this case, you would thing the position in building stochastically and volatility wise giving a false sense of a likely long. Always consider price action beyond the pure mechanical indicator based approach, which are almost always of the lagging variety.
PGR new long term addWith this market uncertainty I decided to sell some riskier positions in my main spot account and add this large cap insurance play. PGR has the best ROE vs. revenue growth of the 20 insurance stocks I studied recently. The past few years they have expanded to a nearly 30% return on equity. If this channel holds, this is a great buy zone for the company leading into earnings. They usually beat all metrics and with a local bottom here and a decent correction I expect a nice upside, the fib extension target is 313$, this matches up with my fundamental analysis of the company target between 295-310$. This is a much safer bet than low price to book value based insurance plays. Progressive also has less risk than many competitors that are overexposed to the California fires.
PGR (Long) (Weekly Income)Asset Class: Stocks
Income Type: Weekly
Symbol: PGR
Trade Type: Long
Trends:
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Up
Set-Up Parameters:
Entry: 246.66 (Confirmation Entry)
Stop: 234.70
TP 282.53 (3:1)
Trade idea:
A price pin into a daily demand zone , Buying the breakout on the 1H TF as the price pullback and the SL at the distal line of the DZ (Conservative) . The trade setup also use the Elliot wave analysis, where the price is likely to form wave 5 next. The setup has a 3:1 RRR with a potential for 4:1. The RSI is oversold on the 4H , showing divergence, and heading up.
!!Be aware of pending Economic Reports. If price is within 20 pips of proximal value at time of major impact report, then Confirmation entry.
Trade management:
-Split the TP to 3 orders at each TP
-when price hits 1:1 , consider moving stop to entry in case of pullback. So your trade is risk free.
-After TP2 hit, you might consider canceling the TP3 and trail the SL to maximize your profit.
**Disclaimer**:
The trading strategies, ideas, and information shared are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, currencies, or financial instruments. You should do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred from following these trading ideas.
Seems like its hit or miss the grey shade is crucialSideway shows for a while, but look at all those pivot points on either side. The question is mainly about the doji at the top as a reversal that is not quite ready to expand as market conditions are volatile. It is a good buy, but if it follows history, then we can see this go lower.
PGR The Progressive Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PGR The Progressive Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 220usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-16,
for a premium of approximately $10.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
PGR | InformativeNYSE:PGR
*I'm bearish on this, because it's overbought and also based on EW, we should expect the rejection. but here are the both scenarios.
If the stock price surpasses the bullish line at approximately $157.05, the immediate upside target could be:
Bullish Target Price 1: Drawing an inference based on the chart's pattern, considering the amplitude of prior upward moves (such as the move from point 2 to 3), a potential target could be around $165-167. However, this is an approximation, and exact figures may vary.
If the stock price falls below the bearish line at $154.82, there are a few potential downside retracement targets based on Fibonacci levels:
(a) 0.382 retracement at $140.31.
(a) 0.5 retracement at $134.79.
(a) 0.618 retracement at $129.27.
These levels are based on the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci retracement which predicts potential retracement levels after a significant move.
PGR The Progressive Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PGR The Progressive Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 140usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $2.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.