POR - long Setup Small amounts of insider selling in 2024. Bull flag. We are looking for a breakout above 44.78, stop signal below 43.73, target 1: 47.43
POR trade ideas
Portland General Electric (POR) to Report a Decline in EarningsPortland General Electric (POR) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2023. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 27. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
This electric utility is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.45 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -30.8%.
Revenues are expected to be $770.34 million, up 3.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 43.48% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Earnings Whisper
Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Consensus Estimate for the quarter. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Portland General Electric?
For Portland General Electric, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Portland General Electric will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?
Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Portland General Electric would post earnings of $0.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.44, delivering a surprise of -6.38%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.
Bottom Line
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Portland General Electric doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
POR - PORTLAND ELECTRIC- US STOCK MARKETFinancials not bad but need more volume to go up..
I wish you good profit!
Thanks
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POR short on overextended buying Reasons to enter:
Weekly analysis:
- Overextended buying, 4 relatively large candles in a row
- Volume spike one the last green weekly candle (ending volume)
Daily analysis:
- Bearish spinning top followed by big bearish candle move down
- Big nice void for the price moving down. No resistance at all
- 2R target around the 50% retracement sweet spot.
Intraday analysis:
- Igniting bearish volume on the last 30 min candle
- Today's move (4th feb) took out 3 low pivot points
Reasons not to enter
- Counter trend trade on both weekly and daily
- Earning reports coming soon
Conclusion:
Still a good trade to enter. Though it is a counter trend trade, the price is very overextended after having 17 green bars in a row.
Since there wasn't any resistance to be found going down to the target price, it should go down relatively fast before the earning reports date on 15 Feb
Long on POR on PullbackPOR has been trending in the upwards direction for quite a while now. It appears to have some excellent volume support on the way up. Where as downward moves result in a reduction in volume. POR has been respecting the 20 EMA for quite sometime and formed a bullish candle today a with the lows at the 20 EMA. POR also has a zacks rank of 2 (buy) which is a good enough rank for a swing trade. It has beaten earnings estimates over the last 4 quarters. It also has a cool 3.14% dividend yield which isn't too bad for some our longer term holders. POR has an ATR of 0.67 at this time which means it wont be making any drastic moves unless something big happens. I will stay in for a couple days to a couple weeks.
Bullish technicals with support at $34.53$POR is holding structure support @ $34.53 after an earnings miss. The RSI is encroaching on oversold territory and the MACD is tightening in on the signal line suggesting a potential rebound is on the cards. Furthermore the candlesticks show several days of elongated wicks to the upside suggesting that bears are beginning to lose control of the sell down.
