Santander at the gates of the 100 billion markBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
Santander, the second largest listed company on the IBEX 35, is on the verge of reaching a new milestone: regaining €100 billion in market capitalization. This figure, not seen since 2015, marks a turning point in the trajectory of the bank, which consolidates its position as the largest in the euro zone, surpassing BNP Paribas. The Cantabrian entity has experienced sustained growth in recent months, driven by a favorable macroeconomic environment and by its strategy of geographic and business diversification. So far in 2025, its shares have risen by almost 55%, driven by a favorable context for the financial sector. Despite lagging behind other banks in 2024, this year it is demonstrating its resilience and operational strength. Santander has once again positioned itself among the elite of European banking, benefiting from rising interest rates and greater operational efficiency.
Key drivers of its growth
The banking sector has benefited from the new economic outlook in Europe, characterized by a rebound in inflation and an increase in defense spending, driven by Germany and the European Union. This environment has strengthened banking profitability, allowing Santander to improve its financial performance. In addition, the elimination of fiscal restrictions in some key countries has facilitated access to credit and boosted economic activity, resulting in greater demand for banking products and services. A clear indicator of its evolution is the comparison with its situation in 2015. Back then, its net profit was less than €6 billion. Today, according to FactSet estimates, it is expected to close 2025 with earnings of 12.69 billion, more than twice as much as a decade ago. This increase is largely due to improved financial margins due to positive interest rates, cost containment and the digitization of its services. Among these costs and in spite of everything, the UK market has turned out to be one of the markets in which it has encountered the greatest direct difficulties and its exit was even considered at the end of last year and the beginning of this one.
Differences with the past
Despite the growth in capitalization and profits, its share price is still far from the historical highs reached in 2007, when it exceeded 13 euros per share. The capital increase and the issuance of convertible debt have transformed its financial structure, so that the bank's total stock market value is not directly reflected in its share price. Since the 2008 crisis, the sector has changed radically with new regulations, mergers and recapitalizations. Santander has been able to adapt, consolidating its position and betting on a diversified strategy that has allowed it to withstand market swings. Unlike in 2015, the entity now has a more solid capital structure, with less dependence on capital increases and a greater capacity to generate recurring profits. In the past, much of the banks' growth was based on credit expansion, which generated a risk bubble that burst with the financial crisis. Today, Santander has learned from those mistakes and has diversified its revenues, betting on the wealth management business, investment banking and digitalization. This transformation has allowed it to remain competitive against new players in the financial sector, such as fintechs and neobanks.
Outlook for the future
With a solid financial situation and an economic environment that continues to offer opportunities, the bank is well positioned to continue its growth. Its performance will depend to a large extent on the ECB's monetary policy and its ability to maintain profitability in a changing market. One of the key challenges for the bank will be managing the interest rate cycle. While rates have boosted banking profitability in recent years, any downturn could squeeze margins. In this regard, Santander will need to focus on operational efficiency strategies and revenue diversification to maintain its profitability. Another aspect to consider is growth in emerging markets. Santander's global presence in Latin America remains a key pillar for its growth, contributing a significant portion of its profits. However, political and economic volatility in the region represents a risk that the bank will have to manage carefully.
Lastly, digitalization and innovation will continue to be differentiating factors in the banking sector. Santander has invested significantly in technology to improve the customer experience and optimize its operations. Competition with fintechs and tech giants will be intense, and the bank will need to continue to innovate to stay ahead of the curve.
Technical Outlook.
At the moment we can see how the stock has soared from January 2 to March 19, currently being an area of possible perforation of the price of 2015 highs after having generated an accumulation zone in the area of 2017 highs. Seeing the current value of the RSI at 65.8% a little more volatility in that direction is predictable, although it is overbought. The average crossover indicates a continuation of the price extension, so it is quite affordable points to a price of 2014 highs around 7.475. If we look at the control point (POC) this is located in the area of the previous range around 4.50 euros per share. If we look at the shape of the bell, it seems to be forming a small double bell in the part of the current highs price around €6 per share.
Conclusion
Santander is on the verge of regaining the 100 billion euros mark in capitalization, consolidating its position as the leader of the banking sector in the euro zone. Its performance in recent years demonstrates the bank's ability to adapt to a changing environment and take advantage of market opportunities. With a strategy based on diversification, digitalization and operational efficiency, Santander is positioned as a key player in the future of the financial sector.
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