11/12/24 - $smrt - Patiently planning into YE11/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: MYX:SMRT
Patiently planning into YE
- "IOT" name finding it's footing after a lot of accusations in the past that i think are behind, but it's not a world beater. tough to own these things, but it's too cheap to ignore doing some initial leg work on my screen this AM
- probably tied to housing still. a good "you'll own nothing and be happy" play... so it's overlord friendly
- think this thing finds lower lows into YE just given trends suck and mgmt is "fixing things"
- that said burn minimal cash, a lot of SBC, but w/e it's still minimal and tons of cash on balance sheet. is it worth 1x or 2x GP? (if 2x... we're there), but trends in 4Q still suck, rates still restrictive for customers, institutions don't need to own this (size is small) and we're in tax loss season where this could sink into the abyss on a risk off event in broader mkts and were you'd be better off being a toe in buyer than an owner wondering if to cut/ or add.
- so if i miss it, i miss it - but my eye is on the 1.5x GP level which implies $75 mm x 1.5 = $112 and take that off the EV today which is ~150 gets you $30 mm lower on the cap currently at $300 mm so that's about 10-15% lower. or sub $1.4.
- stock found a bit of a bounce at that level... i think i could go big in the $1.20's if we'd get there in the next month and a half context, but it's still a position i'd need to babysit so need to be cautious and do more work.
- for now sights set at $1.4 to toe in (50 bps no more), $1.3 or below i could feel comfortable at 1% and below $1.2 i'm probably adding another 50 bps or 100 bps. time will tell
V
