SPG trade ideas
$SPG Whopping drop since my short call in March 2019!The original thesis revolved round a complete paradigm shift in the way Americans shop. The brick and mortar retail industry is in the crosshairs of a complete disruption. It is now an online driven retail economy. As mall retailers falter left and right, rents per square feet will suffer drastically which strikes at the center of $SPG's revenue with share holders ultimately paying the price in losses. Anchor stores are dropping and the impact to REITs is undeniable. Much has been written about $SPG strong balance sheet, but it all boils down to revenue. I could care less how strong your balance sheet is, if money coming in is less than the year before... you're at a loss. If you invested 100 million developing a mall property in 2017, and in 2020 that properties valuation is worth less... you're at a loss on paper. You can try and ride it out if you paid cash, but it's a hell of a difference when your LTV's are in excess of 70%
The mall bubble has burst, rents are dropping, CAP rates will explode, CRE will collapse.
Waiting for earnings...As for right now, we're heading directly to last strong support near $130-135. The next support should be @ $100-110. So I'm planning to watch earnings and then decide if it's even worth to go long on this stock.
Simon Property Group Inc Reversal opportunity
Currently sitting on very important support , will be looking for a trade on a reversal.
Average analysts price target $167.83 | Overweight
P/E ratio 19.11
Company profile
Simon Property Group, Inc. operates as a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust. It owns, develops and manages retail real estate properties which primarily consist of regional malls, premium outlets and mills. Simon Property Group specializes in the ownership, development, management, leasing, acquisition and expansion of income-producing retail real estate assets. The company was founded by Fred Simon, Herbert Simon and Melvin Simon in December 1993 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, IN.
SPG - Earnings CallIf the earnings do not satisfy the investors I see potential to a drop until the 126$ - but there is only a very tiny supporting-line so it could also trop further!
The Question is also how investors see the bidding for "Forever 21"?
SPG - LONG TERM PLAYWe've been looking at SPG for a long term play. The company has been pumping big $$ into renovations around the country at it's mall sites. They also offer a nice dividend at 5.63%. We're waiting for a breakout out of the wedge that's been forming for a possible play to the upside.
Buy point $127.44 for earn at least +$8.75 +6.88% with conditionCondition : If monthly red candle closes below 145.48.
Interesting oversold at low of 2018 but hint is to buy below 128 to make a little safeness profit.
SPG BREAKS MAJOR SUPPORTSPG (Simon Property Group) has broken a major support level and it has now become a resistance level.
The moving averages are alined both on the daily and weekly chart (indicating a strong downtrend)
Also with market being a bit overbought in my opinion we could see a pullback, which would strengthen our position
Expect further downside to 136.00
SPG (Simon Property Group) long term share price analysisThis is one the possible bearish scenario (it also could make regular flat correction by hitting historic high and then plunge or an expanding flat by breaking historic top and then plunge). In expanding flat scenario the plunge would be the deepest.
Not even the hocus pocus stock buy back tricks can save SPG...This stock will be PUNISHED. There is no doubt about it!
In line with the commercial RE thesis...Amazon will continue to create headwinds for mall operators. Many large chain bankrupt stores and lower, much lower rent rates.
SPG: RIGHT SHOULDER is more likely1 HOUR ---- it has a higher low on 10/11 while IYR has its lowest
1 DAY ---- it has support on 168
SPG's price rises... Correction of the first wave of a triple wave structure. We expect only a few dollars to be cut. Then the second and third wave structures can be resumed. Target price 204 usd level.
