TOL trade ideas
TOL Bearish inclined naked calls - 19 Feb expiryFebruary's Secondary Trade
This trade is slightly riskier and is the opposite of the general market movement (bullish).
Residential Construction as a category has done generally well through the pandemic, at this point most of the companies in this sector have a very similar chart movement (Downward range) which is great as it shows a level of predictability in price movement.
Toll brothers is US's leading builder of luxury home. They have done well in the pandemic with their Q4 earnings breaking past estimates.
For Q4 the company's home sales revenue was up 9% year over year with home building deliveries growing 10%. Despite the positive results price is currently ranging with no spikes.
I'm positioning a neutral to bearish outlook as I expect the vaccination and the world getting used to the pandemic to see trading cash flow towards larger growth opportunities in COVID-19 impact sectors that are super beaten down and will see price climbing up
Sold 40 CALLs @ 0.6, Strike 49
BP block: 17k
Max gain est: $2374
$TOL with a neutral outlook after earning release The PEAD projected a neutral outlook for $TOL after a negative under reaction following the earning release placing the stock in Drift D
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TOL - is December another consolidation?For FY 2021, TOL expects deliveries of 9,600-10,200 homes with an average sales price of $790K-$810K.
That compares with consensus of 9,935 and average sales price of $812.9K.
Home deliveries for the quarter ended Oct. 31, 2020 were 2,940 homes vs. consensus of 2,515; compares with fiscal Q3 deliveries of 2,022 and Q4 2019 deliveries of 2,672.
Fiscal Q4 EPS of $1.55 easily beats the consensus estimate of $1.23 and increased from $1.41 in Q4 2019 and 90 cents in fiscal Q3 2020.
Q4 total consolidated revenue of $2.55B vs. average analyst estimate of $2.07B and $2.38B in the year-ago quarter.
Backlog at quarter-end was $6.37B and 7,791 units vs. $6.09B and 7,239 units at Q3-end.
Q4 cancellation rate was 5.4% vs. 8.0% in Q3 2020 and 8.9% in Q4 2019.
Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) sees Q1 deliveries of 1,675 homes with an average sales price of $780K-$800K, less than the consensus estimates of 1,882 homes and $815K ASP.
TOL - December 5, 2020Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. With a surge in work from home, consumers are shifting towards investing in home improvements. Cautious as TOL has a poor leverage ratio, with 4B in debt and only 700M in cash.
Toll Brothers Short Here is an opportunity to short Toll Brothers, Toll Brothers is a luxury homebuilding company set to fall apart in our crumbling economy caused by the pandemic. This is an opportunity to short the company during these temporary choppy times. My strategy is to build my position $500 at a time. The put I will be buying has a strike price of $35 and expires 12/18.
Technicals also support the decline. You can see in the chart that the red cloud above the most recent candles is growing as this is an indicator of bears getting stronger. Theres also multiple sell signals on the Bollinger bands, while the MACD shows a history of bulls getting beat by the bears.
$TOL Toll Brothers Earnings beat Potential long on a break above long term downtrend resistance as a result of earnings beat
Earnings Details
Reports Q3 revenue $1.65B, consensus $1.55B. Home sales revenues were $1.63B, down 7%, home building deliveries were 2,022, up 1%. Net signed contract homes were 2,833, up 26% and contract value was $2.21B, up 18%. Backlog in homes at Q3 end was 7,239, up 6%. Backlog value was $6.09B, up 4%. Douglas Yearley, Jr., chairman and CEO, stated: "We are very pleased with our overall performance in our third quarter, including revenues of $1.63 billion, net income of $114.8 million and backlog of $6.09 billion. Our adjusted gross margin of 21.9% in the quarter improved sequentially compared to 21.0% in the fiscal 2020 second quarter due to a shift in mix of deliveries and solid execution by our teams in the field. SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenue improved to 9.9% in the quarter from 10.6% in the prior year period, reflecting cost efficiencies initiated in our second quarter."
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BIG Potential for TOLL BROS DailyHey people, TOLL BROS is in a bullish configuration with lower purchase volume on TIMEFRAME 15 5 Min. We can see a slowdown with a false refusal of sellers and large volumes of sales at the end of the session. A big possibility to go to the last previous high point.
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Toll Brothers Long OpportunityHi all once again looks like I actually got filled on a low mid line price I was waiting at for this option. Bought the 33 Strike Calls at 4.60, my resting limit price for a long shot. Daily and Hourly are my swing charts for Equity Options. I use filters to measure the Implied Volatility Premium to make sure I am paying low premium for this trade. This is just my own trade idea with my own capital, use the advice wisely.
$TOL is going to fall todayEarnings intraday trading strategy signal.
Toll Brothers occupied a big niche in the US luxury residential construction market.
The company has been beating sales and EPS estimates for 5 quarters (Q4 18, Q1 19, Q2 19, Q3 19, Q4 19). But yesterday the earnings report has a negative surprise — www.benzinga.com
I suppose many traders will close their long positions today due to bad earnings report and downside market trend.
So I hypothesize that $TOL price will be falling from the market open to market close.
Due to strategy, the short sell can be from the market open price,
stop-loss — $1,67 per share
take-profit — market close price.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
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$TOL .. Tol Brothers $39.65housing hotttt picked up buncha $40 oct11 calls around .30 should follow $DHI $LEN $KBH
Major Breakout in Toll Brothers.FED could help.Looking at the chart of Toll Brothers, recession talk seems to be forgotten. Come Wednesdays FED meeting we could see this rally really ignite.
COMPANY PROFILE
Toll Brothers, Inc. engages in the design, building, marketing, and arranging of financing for detached and attached homes in residential communities. It operates through the Traditional Home Building and City Living segments. The Traditional Home Building segment builds and sells homes for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in affluent suburban markets and and cater to move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, age-qualified, and second-home buyers. The City Living segment builds and sells homes in urban infill markets through Toll Brothers City Living. The company was founded by Robert I. Toll and Bruce E. Toll in May 1986 and is headquartered in Horsham, PA.
TOL long setupTOL price on weekly strong trendline. possibly buy. wait for 123 pattern. I also watching this one for trade .
$TOLL BROTHERS NOT WORTH THE RISKMixed feelings about the prospects for TOLL heading into earnings, optimism on recent rate cuts and the employment market, but got to put myself in the shoes of a new home buyer. If you are currently looking for a starter home do you want to be making the biggest investment fo your life at the top of a economic cycle.? NO, NO , NO.
Future rate cuts may be on the way but that may just be sticking a plaster on a broken economy. The WORLD could very well be entering a recession the likelihood that the USA could be immune to that is madness.
$TOL BULLISH SET UP INTO EARNINGS Despite the fact that analysts are less than bullish on the stock, we have confidence that a good report will follow on from the rising home sales figures released last month. Toll brothers stock has suffered a deep correction from 2018 highs, but is now in a well defined uptrend with out target in the $43 region. Within the chart there is a possibility of a inverse H&S forming, with the price sitting on support a volume spike could validate the setup.
Given the fact that analysts are skeptical, a good earnings report could result in upgrades and a short squeeze in the days and weeks to follow.
ANALYSTS AVERAGE RATING HOLD
ANALYSTS AVERAGE PRICE TARGET $38
TOLL BROTHERS INC.
Toll Brothers, Inc. engages in the design, building, marketing, and arranging of financing for detached and attached homes in residential communities. It operates through the Traditional Home Building and City Living segments. The Traditional Home Building segment builds and sells homes for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in affluent suburban markets and and cater to move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, age-qualified, and second-home buyers. The City Living segment builds and sells homes in urban infill markets through Toll Brothers City Living
