U trade ideas
Pull Back FishingAppears to have formed a double bottom and a possible inverse head and shoulders.
Perhaps the bulls do not plan on letting this go much lower
Possible stop under right shoulder.
No recommendation.
Good idea to always look to your left.
IPOs right after their intro can be tough to trade as there is not support below and they can do a free fall on any and every pull back. Later on that important support appears.
Unity software - Reverse head and sholder view pointA strong bullish trend has begun on 6/17 with MA 20/60 Golden Cross.
The bearish trend was gone due to the bullish engulfing candles on 6/17.
MA 20/60 Golden Cross occurred and the chart movement is about to test break resistance line with MA 20 /100 Golden Cross.
Trading volume has been steadily supplied to the market. I believe the chart momentum will test the $130 resistance line.
Unity $U formming a "low cheat"I usually have a number of stocks that I like because of the fundamentals, and I just wait for the technicals to do what I like. This time NYSE:U is doing it in a very good way. The price is not yet above its MAs but it has a strong divergence with the MACD and the ADX is below 20 points, all this while formming a "low cheat" which is like a mini "cup & handle" (I learned this reading Mark Minervini).
Normally the "cup & handle" pattern is one of the best reversal patterns, adding this with the other technical signals I think this stock is close to a buy point. Still, for my strategy this setup is high risk. I always wait for confirmation with a second base. IBD has NYSE:U in rank 7 in its industry, and a realtive stength rating of 37; not my usual stock.
The thing adding to my optimism is that breakouts have been working better for the last 2 weeks. I even missed a few stocks because I was being cautious. With this one I would add just half my position size and if it goes my way I'll add my full postion.
U - Technical Analysis- Broke out of desc triangle (bullish)
- needs to hold over 100 on this current retest. Break above 110 confirms bullish pattern.
- price target is at rectangle, and blue lines are resistance levels and potential future support. Expect buying and selling at those blue lines and retracement to moving averages on the climb up.
- Criminally sold off and gave back most gains in the recent growth sell off
Unity's Squeeze-Price Inflection oscillation tied to EarningsPremise:
Convergence probably occurred before initial jump to ATH (not drawn)
2nd convergence noticeably begins around the time Momentum Squeeze kicks in for the buildup to Q4 earnings report.
Momentum at breakout was BEARISH, despite P/L changing in the positive direction (earnings much closer to estimate than in Q3)
If this performance holds up, Unity's stock should be competitive against established entities (see background: 700 and ATVI) in the gaming market which looks poised to resume an upward trend.
One Possible Scenario:
The last 2 weeks in March are showing the beginning of a 3rd convergence; will keep updating to see if this pattern holds up.
A new Squeeze indicator along with past experience suggests it will, crucially timed to the earnings release on May 6th.
The sine wave shown here in purple is not meant as a trendline projecting the stock's price level at some point in the future but is simply an extrapolation of past inflection points to identify at what point along the new growth curve the stock will be if and when Momentum breaks decisively in the positive direction.
My conclusion is that Unity will probably continue trading in its current range for some time, possibly even taking another downward turn this month as public sentiment on the stock has been increasingly bearish as its clear it isn't poised to rocket back to 150.
That would be the time to buy and hold, if the enthusiasm for Unity among developers is to be taken seriously, or at the very least, place your May-21 calls.