8/13/24 - $wrby - Still no thanks at $13. maybe 10.8/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:WRBY
Still no thanks at $13. maybe 10.
- good brand
- but moat is more brand related than product related (opine if you think differently)
- stock in a tough discretionary environment. if u don't need a new pair... you can wait. this isn't toilet paper.
- really dislike how much stock comp in this co's FCF calculation it's nearly 80-100 mm depending on the year. for a stock that's up and to the right, that's fine, but this one isn't. so therefore this isn't real "free cash flow", it's an expense to shareholders (dare i say bagholders)
- EVEN IF the above weren't an issue. what would i pay for something maybe coming from zero EPS to positive and growing from 2024 onward at 25-30%? at most in today's tape... 35x. that's what i can buy a cash machine growing at this level with better margins called $CELH. that's my denominator in all consumer stock considerations (divide $WRBY/ NASDAQ:CELH ) just like in all tech decision i divide by NASDAQ:NVDA and $BTCUSDT...
-... so at 35x on '25 EPS (let's assume it's right at 31c) that's round up $11/shr.
- so again. tough environment. stock weak in strong tape. financials don't entice me with respect to stock comp. i need a discount. i'm happy to let it go here if it just lingers in the low teens and eventually goes higher. i can always buy it going higher w more conviction. but i lack that conviction rn.
- will re assess closer to $10.
V
WRBY trade ideas
Watching $WRBY into earnings.First, let me say that earnings can be a gamble. I will be keen on watching what happens to $WRBY on their upcoming earnings. With upper and lower trendlines converging, as well as the fact that this low floater (88M) is also a high short(19.5%), I feel like this eyewear maker should be makking a pretty big move soon. Whether it is higher or lower is still to be determined
WRBY Sneaky Seller Showing Size at $54Since WRBY become public it has traded in a tight range given the popularity of the name
Recently we have started to see a seller holding $54 that is now starting to show his size on the offer looking to get taken
We will be looking to buy through that offer and add through the IPO high with a stop vs the IPO low