Short term bearish diamond to $113 ppsShort term bearish diamond for scalp or day traders...May take us to $113 first followed by a bounce and continuation down towards $100 psych in the coming week(s).
Educational purposes only!
XOM trade ideas
XOM Likely to Face Resistance at $119.71 All-Time High
I have been tracking XOM since joining the group in May. I was hopeful that XOM would present a buy opportunity at the $94 green trendline, but XOM showed a lot of bullishness at $100.
In July I decided to adjust my buy target to a $101-104 buy zone, marked by the white circle and entered into a trade there.
XOM has experienced a bullish 8-week rally and is nearing its $119.71 all-time high price target.
XOM has already broken above the upper range of the Bollinger Band, which is sitting at $116.29. I believe that XOM is overbought and will drop back into the Bollinger Band range.
XOM is approaching a key price target, which is the red resistance line at XOM’s $119.71 all-time high.
I’m looking for XOM to climb shortly above this red resistance line before having a pullback (drawn with a white line and arrow).
XOM has shown a consolidation patternXOM has shown a consolidation pattern
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of ExxonMobil's stock in the past 4 years. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, ExxonMobil's stock has shown a consolidation pattern of high to strong overall after completing a small level double top at the beginning of this year! The small double top of ExxonMobil's stock at the beginning of this year was suppressed by the 3.618 level of the gold split at the bottom of the graph, and did not touch any strong support level for the low point of the pullback thereafter! So, in the future, the stock market of ExxonMobil is likely to weaken and continue to retreat towards the downside!
XOM Triple BottomSimple triple bottom pattern on XOM with macro momentum shifting back bullish after a period of consolidation before the next leg up. Profit target is the highs and runners after if you wish. 20% Stop loss 9/8 expo, after green level is broken. If stop is hit look for re-entry above green level according to 10m chart price action. Expect this play to go 50%+ but nothing in the market is ever 100%.
$XOM Parallel Uptrend The trajectory of NYSE:XOM reveals a parallel uptrend, mirroring the recent impressive performance of energy stocks. Currently, the energy sector exudes a distinctly bullish sentiment, underpinned by notable market trends. A bullish outlook prevails as long as NYSE:XOM maintains a position above the crucial threshold of 104, indicating a potentially promising trajectory for this energy giant.
$XOM with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NYSE:XOM after a negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C with an expected accuracy of 66.67%.
Exxon May Be Trying to Break OutEnergy is the only sector with a positive return so far in August. Today’s chart focuses on Exxon Mobil, the biggest and most liquid name in the group.
First consider the trendline along the highs of May 8 and July 3. XOM surged after breaking out and has now come down to hold the same line. Is old resistance becoming new support?
Second, last week’s lows represented a 50 percent retracement of the move from the July low to the August high.
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA. That potentially suggests its short-term trend is getting bullish. (Only 21 percent of S&P 500’s members could make make such a claim last Friday, according to TradeStation data.)
Last week’s bounce also occurred at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is additionally trying to turn higher.
These points could make traders look for more gains if XOM can break the falling trendline that’s appeared since mid-August.
Finally, fundamentals may support energy. Crude-oil inventories have been lower than expected the last two weeks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) recently hit the lowest level since late-1983.
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Finding support near 200MA looking bullish. XOM is looking bullish in this area near the 200MA and other moving averages consolidating. Being cyclical this trade could make modest gains going into the colder months. October 120 calls.
RectangleThis is at the top of the chart and the high of 119.92 is the ATH.
Neutral until broken.
There are rising wedges over 2 years old under price. The bottom line has not been broken on these wedges so they are not valid.
NO recommendation.
XOM to ATHObserving the one-day chart of Exxon Mobil, I’ve spotted an upward trend highlighted in yellow. Recent price action shows strength, with a bounce just before the support level. And, we’re seeing a breakout from a smaller downward channel, followed by a return to test it.
The stock closed a gap at 107.73, reinforcing its upward potential. With strong momentum and this backtest, I believe XOM could aim for new highs. My first profit target is 114.45, coinciding with gap fill.
XOM 4H (Update)As expected, Exxon's shares broke through the designated zone and experienced substantial growth. Currently, they are retracing back to the breached area. If this region ( 108$ ) holds, the possibility of further growth for these shares from this point will remain available
XOM, DailyIn our list, today, is Exxon's Mobil stock, as energy markets are on the move: Crude oil and natural gas are gaining momentum. That’s why the “Oil and Gas exploration” sector might be interesting right now, especially considering a rotation from tech stocks towards other sectors.
A trade location around 200-day moving average and a breakout of the chart formation, makes XOM a candidate for a rally.
Double top form of ExxonMobil's stock has been completedDouble top form of ExxonMobil's stock has been completed
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of ExxonMobil's stocks over the past 4 years. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, the small-scale double top form of ExxonMobil's stock has been completed. Now, there is a long short competition at the bottom of the figure against the 3.000 and 3.272 positions in the golden section, and it is likely to break down in the future! For a period of time to come, just use the long start level of ExxonMobil's stock in late March this year at $99.63 as the long short divide!
Weekly chart of $XOM is bullishNYSE:XOM
Weekly chart of NYSE:XOM is bullish. Can see new highs by end of year
XOM Exxon - Spring Coiled Or Hanging By A Thread?Every time the price of oil goes up, there's a group of bulls that are sure they're catching the train to $150. I mean, I do think oil will go to $150, and there has to be a bottom that comes first, so there's that.
But with fossil fuels and energy producers it seems the pumps are rare, the consolidations are frequent, and the dumps are more common.
In two recent calls, I suggest that oil may actually be on its way to a 3-handle
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins
This particular thesis is at something of its inflection point. All the way to $85 would not be surprising, nor would it invalidate the short trade. But here we chop in the $80s.
For Natgas, in a recent call, I suggest that price needs to raid $1.6~ before the rocket mission to $10 can commence
NatGas - No Moon Until Doom
Natty has rallied fairly meaningfully in the last few days, and it may even actually finally punch out $3. But if it can't continue from there, the idea may still be correct.
A big tell that something isn't right in the bull thesis for Exxon is that after the highs were swept in April at $119~, everyone long over $111 has remained trapped ever since, with price not following oil's recent $20 rally.
Now for Exxon, something that's really notable is that the CEO recently bought himself some 650,000 shares for $69 million. This makes many people believe that new highs simply have to be coming.
When we look at monthly candles, we can see we're "flagging" above the old All Time High, there's no indication that it's a reversal, and yet, for three months, there is no reversal.
On the weekly, last week's price action gave the appearance that it's finally time, but it may have just been a stop sweep over the range high.
It's notable oil is pumping, but Exxon is not, despite its stellar earnings report.
An important thing to note about Exxon is next dividends ex-date is August 15 and the payout is 91 cents a share. The CEO will pick up some $591,000+ in cold cash mitigating his position.
It's also worth noting that when it comes to insider buys, they aren't necessarily indicative that price is going to go up before it goes down.
The man may have understood he could make more than the 5% he can earn in the money market by buying Exxon and loaning the shares out to short sellers, combined with dividend payments, over the next year, for example.
The most rational place for Exxon to correct to, if it were to correct, is the $68 level.
There are a lot of geopolitical risks right now with China, the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, and the CCP and the Jiang Zemin faction's 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong.
This is really the biggest piece of the puzzle that you need to educate yourself with, but establishment media doesn't talk about it.
All of this directly impacts the oil market. And the War in Ukraine impacts the oil market, because if the War is called off then Russian oil is going to flow worldwide again and amount to a big time supply increase.
Things can change any time.
XOM Daily (Bullish Scenario)EXXON on the daily timeframe has been below a significant resistance level ( 108 ) for 81 days, and it's not showing signs of breaking out and growing yet. If it manages to break above this area and exhibits strong momentum, we can expect a good potential for growth.
XOM 108-110 second chance top comingXOM 108-110 second chance top coming, my previous analysis showed short term rallys to 108-110 should be viewed as short term sell rallys (second chance exit zones)
XOM Exxon Mobil Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XOM here:
Or when they made more money than God:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 105usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-8-18,
for a premium of approximately $2.16.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
XOM to see 91 after 100 psych breakXOM: Sell the bounces at $100, $91, and $63-75 levels levels (+/- a little as I prefer to use zones).
If you look at my longer-term analysis, my projection is $75.38 .618 fibonacci level, possibly seeing lower, somewhere between 63 (.786 fib level on weekly timeframe) and 75 (.618 weekly fib level) for a few days as a weekly pierce but closing out at that point in the future at .618 which may represent a buy once we hit 75, but i'm unyielding bearish, even if my abc count is invalidated, with my A wave ending at 101.59 instead of 91.57, any bounces from there would be viewed to me as short open opportunities, or opportunities to sell into cash, but this may take many months to over a year or more to occur.
The fibonacci levels of .382 and .618 will be very strong, so expect bounces here. However, these should be seen as sell-out bounces and not as bounces providing hope of a continued trend above $120.
This will likely be a buy opportunity at the mid-60s. I wouldn't touch anything beyond short-term call options on the long side here, regardless of their $4.9 billion venture, which is viewed as a hedge against the substitution effect from oil to electric grid-based resources.
I always start with Daily to Weekly timeframes when developing a trend bias, so I always know where the market structure is. Going back to October 2020, this stock was around $28 per share, topping around $117 per share in February of this year. A drop to around $91 represents a .382 Fib retracement, where I possibly see our Weekly A Wave of the higher-order ABC correction concluding, leading to a bounce towards 100-101 before a fall towards 75 zone.
For longer-term buyers adamant about buying this thing, I would at most start dollar cost averaging once we get into the 80s, more progressively as we break below 80. But again, remember that oil's relevance may be very high in the future but not as high as it was in the past and is diminishing over time, in my opinion.
Channel DownDiagonal trading channel.
Looks like an earnings miss.
The Channel Down pattern is identified when there are two parallel lines, both moving down to the right across respective peaks (upper line) and bottoms (lower line). The upper line is identified first, as running along the lows: it defines the trendline. The lower line (or, the channel line) is identified as parallel to the trendline, running across the first prominent bottom. When in the channel, prices are expected to bounce off both upper and lower boundaries until the channel is broken; the more such reversals occur, the more reliable the pattern.
No recommendation
throwover complete for XOM?My forcast of a top at high 105s is still in tact as we had a throw-over to 107 today. I mentioned previously a 20% chance we hit 108-111 zone temporarily but the fall is still imminent to 98 (within a week), then 85 (after a 98 bounce which could take weeks to months) intermediate term, then my longer term .681 (monthly ++ chart) forecast before XOM is a buy again on a value basis is $63-$65 zone.... we shall see.. Expect volatility through the end of the month and a drop after any trumped up month end rises. I see $108 to $111 as our hard ceiling and where we are now as our relatively hard ceiling with month closing rallies that will serve as fake-outs or bull traps.
triple top formationAs i mentioned in my other posts, 105.50 zone was our second chance sell, triple top intraday is confirming our soon to be drop towards 100
Calls ideaBought some calls here. I think is a little tight. I should have given them one more week. Hope it plays put.
