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New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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NZDUSD trade ideas

NZDUSD H1 | Bearish Drop Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.6015, which is a pullback resistance. Our take profit will be at 0.5973, a pullback support level close to 50% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be at 0.6040, above swing high resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
NZDUSD short on Thursday Nov 7, 2024A short on the NZDUSD currency pair based on interest rate differential between the NZD and the USD. Trading is based almost entirely on technical indicators that use past price action to forecast future price action. However, the trader who ignores fundamental forces that move markets is at a disadvantage to traders who factor fundamental data into their trading decisions. The fundamental data that have the most effect on exchange rates are interest rates, which affect the perceived value of currencies. While central bank rates are not volatile, the yields on government bonds, such as the U.S. 10-year treasury note, fluctuate on all time frames in global bond markets. Those yields reflect the expectation the market has as to where future central bank rates will go. Bond yields are often a leading indicator of interest rates and of exchange rates. In the forex market, the metric that applies to a currency pair is the interest rate differential, especially the delta, or change in the interest rate differential, on various time frames. This trade shows a case where movement of the interest rate differential, expressed in basis points, in the positive direction was a leading indicator of movement of the NZDUSD currency pair in the same direction.
Short
by Zee111666
Trading NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 05/11/2024Last week concluded with a 3% gain using the Judas Swing strategy, which yielded three trades in total: two on EURUSD and one on NZDUSD. The EURUSD trades resulted in one win and one loss, while the NZDUSD trade closed with a win. These results have set the stage for a thrilling week ahead in the markets, and we can't wait to see what unfolds! As usual, we arrived at the trading desk at 8:25 EST to delineate our trading zones. Once these zones have been marked we need to wait for the high or low of this zone to be swept, this step is essential to help us get a bias for the trading session. After 40 minutes, the liquidity at the high of the zone was swept, indicating that we should look for potential selling opportunities in this session. While we may lean toward a sell this session, we hold back from entering until we see a clear structure break on the sell side. During this shift, price should create a Fair Value Gap, giving us an optimal entry point to step into the trade. After an hour's wait, we finally got a Break of Structure on the sell side, which also resulted in a Fair Value Gap being created. To fulfill all the entry criteria on our checklist, we must wait for price to retrace into the Fair Value Gap that has formed, and we can only execute the trade once the candlestick has closed. After 10 minutes a candle entered the Fair Value Gap, indicating that upon its closure, we may proceed with executing the trade. By risking just 1% of our account for a potential 2% gain, we reduce emotional attachment, knowing the loss is manageable, while positioning ourselves for greater rewards. Shortly after entering, the trade went into a drawdown; however, since we had risked an amount we were comfortable with losing, the current state of the trade did not move us. Upon reviewing the position after some time, we noticed that the trade had started moving in our favor, although it hadn't moved much from the entry price. Given the average trade duration of around 11 hours for the strategy, there’s no rush, we simply need to wait for the setup to deliver as expected. While the trade didn't reach our desired outcome and we took a 1% loss after the stop loss was hit, we remained unaffected because we were fully prepared for this potential outcome.
by CleoFinance
NZD/USD Bearish Reversal from Order BlockAnalysis Summary Order Block Resistance: The price has reached an order block in the zone between 0.6016 and 0.6032. This area is likely to act as a strong resistance, where sellers might step in, potentially initiating a bearish reversal. Break of Structure (BOS) and Lower Low (LL): The recent BOS and LL formations reinforce a bearish structure, suggesting a continuation of downward momentum if the price fails to break above the order block. Support Levels: Key support levels are noted at 0.5959 and 0.5934. These areas are potential targets if the price reverses from the order block. They may attract buying interest but could also act as intermediate stops for a bearish move. Weak Low: The weak low around 0.5911 could serve as an ultimate target for the bearish move. If this level is reached and broken, it would confirm further downside potential and a continuation of the bearish trend. Potential Scenarios: Bearish Reversal from Order Block: If the price is rejected within the 0.6016–0.6032 order block, a bearish move could unfold, targeting the support levels at 0.5959, 0.5934, and eventually the weak low at 0.5911. Breakout Scenario: Should the price break above the order block and sustain itself, it would invalidate the bearish setup and could signal a potential bullish continuation. Conclusion NZD/USD is approaching significant resistance within the order block zone at 0.6016–0.6032, where a bearish reversal could initiate a move toward 0.5959, 0.5934, and possibly the weak low at 0.5911. Traders should monitor the reaction within the order block for potential short entries, keeping an eye on support levels for downside targets.
Short
by SwiftSignalFX
2
NZDUSD -DXY will continue its upward trend?!The NZDUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of a downward correction, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Crossing the specified resistance range of this currency pair will provide the path for its ascent to higher price targets. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has stated that geopolitical tensions are considered a risk to financial stability. Concerns about these tensions have recently grown, and the potential impacts of these risks cannot be ignored. The RBNZ has also pointed out that the economic policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump would lead to increased inflationary pressures. Hawksby, an RBNZ official, noted that central banks have the capacity to manage the global ramifications of these policies. Orr, the head of the RBNZ, mentioned that the world may have reached a peak in global trade, and Trump’s return to the White House could pose additional challenges for central banks. Trump has discussed imposing global tariffs of 10-20%, higher tariffs with China, reductions in corporate and personal taxes, and the lifting of bureaucratic regulations. George Saravelos, a senior analyst at Deutsche Bank, has identified two key points regarding this situation: caution in making fundamental market changes and the way Trump’s and the Republicans’ policies are priced in. Saravelos believes these changes are not solely political but are also linked to the structure of financial markets. He notes that high-risk global assets are tracking the upward trend in U.S. equities, which has resulted in high-risk commodity currencies performing better. However, he stresses that this trend should not be easily projected into the future, and potential shifts in correlations should not be overlooked. According to him, the U.S. election results are historic and could lead to structural changes in the markets, potentially breaking previous correlations. This implies that the U.S. market could continue to grow, while other global markets may experience negative performance. Saravelos also observes that markets are currently evaluating a relatively balanced set of policies, which differ from the election promises, particularly regarding budget deficits and tariffs. He believes that if Trump’s plans are implemented, there is a possibility of further increases in the valuation of the dollar and other financial instruments.
Long
by Ali_PSND
1
NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Bullish Bias Expected Amid Key FundamentalNZDUSD Daily Outlook: Bullish Bias Expected Amid Key Fundamental Drivers (07/11/2024) Overview On 7th November 2024, NZDUSD is showing signs of a slight bullish bias, driven by key economic data releases and broader market sentiment. This article provides an in-depth look at the factors shaping NZDUSD today, including central bank commentary, global market trends, and recent shifts in risk sentiment. Keywords: NZDUSD forecast, New Zealand dollar, forex trading, USD, economic data, central bank policy, risk sentiment, technical analysis, forex market --- Key Factors Supporting NZDUSD Bullish Bias Today 1. Federal Reserve Dovish Outlook Recent Federal Reserve statements have taken a slightly dovish tone, with policymakers emphasizing a "wait-and-see" approach to further rate hikes. The possibility of a Fed pause on interest rates provides support to the New Zealand dollar, as market sentiment leans towards a softer USD. 2. RBNZ’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently signaled a focus on inflation control, reinforcing a hawkish stance relative to the Fed. This contrasts with other central banks, positioning NZD as an attractive currency in the current global environment. Markets are pricing in a limited chance of a rate hike from the RBNZ in the near term, which could further support NZD. 3. Improved Risk Sentiment Global markets have seen an increase in risk appetite, with equities rebounding and commodities trading higher. This shift often benefits the NZD due to its reputation as a commodity-linked and high-yield currency. As investors seek yield, demand for the New Zealand dollar may rise, enhancing NZDUSD. 4. Strong New Zealand Economic Data New Zealand’s recent economic data, including employment figures and business confidence, indicate resilience in the economy. Solid domestic growth and low unemployment rates suggest underlying strength, which could further boost NZD demand against USD. 5. Technical Analysis Indicators From a technical standpoint, NZDUSD is approaching key support levels around 0.5900, showing upward momentum and signaling a potential reversal. RSI (Relative Strength Index) levels indicate that the pair may have room to move higher before hitting overbought territory, aligning with a bullish outlook. NZDUSD Today: What to Watch For - US Initial Jobless Claims – Scheduled later today, these figures may influence USD if they show a labor market slowdown, potentially adding to the Fed’s dovish stance and supporting NZDUSD. - NZDUSD’s Resistance Levels – Key resistance near 0.6050 could be tested if bullish momentum continues, while support at 0.5900 could offer a base. Conclusion Given the softer stance from the Federal Reserve and favorable economic data from New Zealand, NZDUSD shows signs of a slight bullish bias. As always, forex traders should monitor any significant data releases closely, as these could prompt volatility in NZDUSD. SEO Tags: #NZDUSDforecast #ForexTrading #NewZealandDollar #USD #NZDUSDtechnicalanalysis #ForexMarket #RiskSentiment #CentralBankPolicy #DailyForexAnalysis
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
Pullback resistance ahead?The kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which is a pullback support. Pivot: 0.6008 1st Support: 0.5939 1st Resistance: 0.6048 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
Kiwi H4 | Approaching resistance?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 0.6003 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 0.6041 which is a level that sits above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 0.5935 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
This is the liqidity Grab I was waiting for...Now I'm in the high-risk long trade with reduced risk. Price broke highs retail longed, now they are stopped out and retail shorted = perfect environment for taking price finally up after previous month sell-off. Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution - No liquidity raid = No trade - Never buy high and never sell low “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Long
by Dave-Hunter
3
NZDUSD to turnaround?NZDUSD - 24h expiry Price action has continued to trend strongly lower and has stalled at the previous support near 0.5925. We expect a reversal in this move. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 0.5975 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 0.6025. We look to Buy at 0.5925 (stop at 0.5893) Our profit targets will be 0.6005 and 0.6020 Resistance: 0.5975 / 0.6000 / 0.6025 Support: 0.5925 / 0.5900 / 0.5875 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
NZDUSD Analysis for November 6, 2024: Slight Bullish Bias Amid.As of November 6, 2024, NZDUSD shows a slight bullish bias amid a variety of fundamental factors influencing the currency pair. With recent market conditions shifting, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) gains some support against the US dollar (USD). Let's delve into the primary factors that could drive NZDUSD today. Key Drivers Supporting a Bullish Bias for NZDUSD 1. New Zealand Economic Resilience New Zealand’s economic fundamentals continue to show resilience, with recent data indicating stable inflation and a manageable interest rate environment. These conditions provide a supportive backdrop for the New Zealand dollar, encouraging modest gains against the US dollar. 2. US Dollar Weakness on Rate Expectations The USD has shown signs of weakness due to shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Recent statements from the Fed suggest a dovish approach may prevail, potentially signaling fewer rate hikes in the near term. This sentiment dampens the USD’s appeal, providing a tailwind for NZDUSD's bullish momentum. 3. Positive Risk Sentiment Risk sentiment remains moderately positive in global markets, which often benefits higher-yielding currencies like the NZD. Investors appear more optimistic, drawing them towards risk assets and risk-associated currencies. This trend is likely to support NZDUSD in the near term, especially if risk sentiment persists. 4. Commodity Prices Influence NZD is historically correlated with commodity prices, and recent stability in commodity markets has provided additional support for the currency. As New Zealand is a major exporter of dairy and other commodities, the steady prices bolster NZD, adding strength to the bullish case for NZDUSD. Technical Indicators Show Cautious Optimism Technically, NZDUSD is trading above key moving averages, further confirming a slight bullish trend. If the pair holds above the 0.5900 support level, we could see an attempt to test the 0.5980 resistance, driven by today’s bullish sentiment and the outlined fundamental factors. Conclusion In conclusion, today’s analysis suggests a slightly bullish bias for NZDUSD, driven by New Zealand’s economic stability, US dollar softness, favorable risk sentiment, and supportive commodity prices. Traders should monitor any changes in Fed policy or risk sentiment that could alter this outlook. Tags: - NZDUSD analysis - New Zealand dollar forecast - Forex market trends - US dollar outlook - Federal Reserve rate impact - NZDUSD November 6, 2024 - Risk sentiment currency trading - Forex bullish trends - Commodity currency
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
1
NZDUSD → Speculators waiting for news.... FX:NZDUSD is moving into consolidation after a strong and progressive fall amid a halt in the dollar index. Markets are waiting for news related to the US presidential election.... The currency pair amid strong bullish DXY is not practicing attempts to update local highs with the aim of changing the trend to a bullish one. Buyers are not ready yet, and are waiting for November 5... If Trump is elected, the dollar, supported by a pro-inflationary president, may continue to recover, which, accordingly, will manifest itself in the form of negative dynamics in the currency pair. But, most likely, with the election of a politician from the Democratic Party, the regulators are likely to continue to hold the dovish rate, in which case the NZDUSD will have a chance to change the trend. Resistance levels: 0.6031, 0.6066 Support levels: 0.5953, 0.5915 Technically, bears continue to hold the dominant position. The area 0.5915, 0.585 is a zone of interest in terms of liquidity formation, thus, there is a high probability of reaching these areas... Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
If price makes a pullback above PWH I will..be looking for the short to 0.59 from wher it can bounce. But again as with my other predictions for this week. Its US elections week so... If we get the confirmation, I will be looking to position myself with my students and followers as highlighted on the chart. Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution - No liquidity raid = No trade - Never buy high and never sell low “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
by Dave-Hunter
Coming down to the wire | FX ResearchIt's going to be a bumpy ride over the next 24 hours, or perhaps even longer, as we finally find out who the next president of the United States will be. The race is neck and neck, and the outcome could very well impact financial markets, especially as we head into the U.S. open. Risk sentiment is looking up across the board: currencies are higher against the dollar, U.S. equity futures are pointing to a positive open, and commodities are up as well. Earlier today, the RBA left rates on hold as widely expected, while sounding a bit more hawkish than the market had anticipated. Meanwhile, the RBNZ warned that New Zealand is experiencing a pronounced economic downturn that could worsen. Looking ahead, we’ll get trade data from Canada and the U.S., the U.S. ISM Services report, the Bank of Canada summary of deliberations, ECB President Lagarde’s speech, and of course, updates on the U.S. election. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
1
New Zealand dollar higher despite pessimistic RBNZThe New Zealand dollar has moved higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5998, up 0.46% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report and the financial system received a favorable grade. That was it for the good news, as the report pointed to weak economic conditions that were hampering households and businesses. The report noted that rising unemployment was causing “acute” financial difficulties for some households and that businesses had been impacted by weak demand and high cost pressures. This had caused households to reduce spending and businesses to freeze investing. Although inflation and interest rates had fallen, “significant further weakening in the economy remains a risk.” The negative tone of the report could mean that the central bank will remain aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle. The RBNZ slashed rates by 50 basis points in October, lowering the cash rate to 4.75%. The final meeting of the year is on Nov. 27 and another 50-bp is likely, with a supersize 75-bp cut an outside possibility. The RBNZ will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s third-quarter employment report. Employment change is expected to decline by 0.4% after a 0.4% gain in the second quarter. As well, the unemployment rate is projected to jump to 5%, from 4.6% in the second quarter. With inflation easing, the RBNZ is keeping a closer eye on the labor market and if the deterioration in employment is worse than expected in Q3, the calls for a 75-bp cut at the next meeting will get louder. NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.5987 and is testing resistance at 0.6002 There is support at 0.5957 and 0.5942
by OANDA