NZDUSD trade ideas
NZD/USD Bullish Setup with EMA Cross & Strong SupportNZD/USD Bullish Trade Setup Analysis
Trade Parameters:
Entry: Buy at 0.56000
Stop Loss: 0.55500 (-50 pips)
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 0.56350 (+35 pips)
TP2: 0.56700 (+70 pips)
TP3: 0.57000 (+100 pips)
Technical Analysis:
EMA7 Crossover EMA21 & EMA50:
The short-term EMA (7-period) crossing above the medium-term EMA (21-period) and long-term EMA (50-period) signals a potential bullish trend formation.
EMA21 Approaching EMA50:
This suggests that the momentum is shifting towards an extended uptrend.
Support Level at 0.55850:
This key level serves as a safety net, meaning if price respects this support, the uptrend remains valid.
Risk Management & Considerations:
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
TP1: 0.7:1 (risking 50 pips to gain 35 pips – not ideal for RRR but useful for partial profit-taking).
TP2: 1.4:1 (better RRR, a reasonable target).
TP3: 2:1 (strong RRR, allowing for a more profitable trade).
Trade Management :
If the price reaches TP1 (0.56350), consider moving the SL to breakeven to protect your capital.
Be cautious of economic news that could impact NZD/USD (like RBNZ statements, U.S. inflation data, or employment reports).
Conclusion:
This trade is based on a developing bullish trend, confirmed by EMA crossovers and a strong support zone at 0.55700. Proper risk management is essential to protect capital, and adjusting the stop loss as price moves in favor can maximize gains. 🚀
NZDUSD capped by resistance at 0.5690The NZD/USD currency pair remains in a bearish trend, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. However, recent intraday price action suggests sideways consolidation, indicating a potential buildup before the next significant move.
Bearish Scenario:
The key level to watch is 0.5690, aligning with the previous consolidation zone.
A potential oversold rally toward 0.5690, followed by a bearish rejection, could reaffirm the downtrend.
If sellers regain control, downside targets include 0.5580, followed by 0.5560, with 0.5530 acting as a key longer-term support.
Bullish Scenario:
A confirmed breakout above 0.5690 on a daily close would challenge the bearish outlook.
This could trigger further upside momentum, leading to a test of 0.5716, followed by 0.5770 if bullish pressure strengthens.
A sustained move above 0.5770 could indicate a broader trend shift.
Conclusion:
The overall sentiment remains bearish, but short-term consolidation suggests a possible test of 0.5690 before the next directional move. A bearish rejection at this level would reinforce the downtrend, while a breakout above 0.5690 would open the door for further upside. Traders should monitor price action closely at this key resistance zone for confirmation.
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LONG ON NZD/USDNZD/USD is giving nice uptrend structure from the higher TF.
Currently it has pulled back to a key support area and is looking good for a rise.
Dollar (DXY) is overall bearish and currently falling. (This has a inverse correlation with XXX/USD pairs)
I will be buying NZD/USD to the next resistance level / previous high for about 150-200 pips.
Bearish drop?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.5686
1st Support: 0.5547
1st Resistance: 0.5761
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NZD/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis & Trade Setup
Timeframes Analyzed:
30-Minute (M30)
1-Hour (H1)
4-Hour (H4)
Daily (D1)
Market Structure Overview
✅ Bearish Trend: The overall structure remains bearish, with multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirming a downward momentum.
✅ Liquidity Sweeps: Weak lows were taken out, showing potential liquidity grabs before a possible reversal.
✅ Premium & Discount Zones:
Premium Zone (~0.5750 - 0.5800): Ideal for short positions.
Discount Zone (~0.5550 - 0.5580): Currently testing this area, a key decision point.
Trade Scenarios
📉 Scenario 1: Short Trade (Higher Probability - 70%)
Entry: 0.5620 - 0.5650 (If price retraces higher)
Stop Loss (SL): Above 0.5670
Take Profit (TP): 0.5550 (Discount Zone)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3+
Probability: 70%
📌 Confirmation: Look for bearish price action near 0.5620 - 0.5650 before entering a short.
📈 Scenario 2: Long Trade (Moderate Probability - 55%)
Entry: 0.5550 - 0.5580 (Current Discount Zone)
Stop Loss (SL): Below 0.5530
Take Profit (TP): 0.5650 (Previous Support Turned Resistance)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2
Probability: 55%
📌 Risk: The long trade is counter-trend but might work if a bullish CHoCH (Change of Character) appears.
Conclusion & Recommendations
Best Trade: Short from 0.5620 - 0.5650, targeting 0.5550.
Watch for a break of the weak low at 0.5580—if it holds, a reversal could be in play.
Confirmation Needed: Price action at key levels before executing trades.
NZDUSD Trade Idea - Bearish Bias### **📉 NZDUSD Trade Idea - Bearish Bias**
**🔍 Market Outlook:**
I am considering **NZDUSD bearish** based on the following analysis:
✅ **Bearish Trend Continuation:** The pair has shown consistent weakness and is aligned with a bearish trend. ⬇️
✅ **External Monthly Range Liquidity:** The price is likely heading towards the **monthly external range liquidity**, creating a good opportunity to short. 🏦💰
✅ **Break of Structure (BOS):** A recent **BOS** confirms downward momentum, suggesting further downside potential. 📉
✅ **SMC Alignment:** The trade aligns with **Smart Money Concepts**, supporting institutional-driven price movements. 💼
### **📌 Trade Plan:**
🔹 **Entry:** Wait for a minor retracement or liquidity sweep before entering short. ⏳
🔹 **Stop Loss:** Above the recent **swing high** or invalidation level. 🚨
🔹 **Take Profit:** Target **monthly external range liquidity** for a significant profit zone. 🎯💵
🔹 **Confluence:** Look for additional **bearish order flow** confirmation on lower timeframes (LTF). 🔄
Let me know if you'd like more details or a chart to visualize this! 📊
NZDUSD Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for NZDUSD.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.559.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.566.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
How I Secured 100+ Pips on NZDUSD Sell This WeekHey Rich Friends,
Happy Friday. Today, I will dive deep into the NZDUSD sell I took this week. Fortunately, my analysis was correct, and with patience, I was able to secure 100+ pips. Here is what I did:
First, I used session breaks on the 1HR time frame to help me identify the previous days' high and low. This is important because based on how the market reacts in these areas, it will help me determine what to do. For example:
- rejection at PDH = SELL, break out above PDH = BUY
- support at PDL = BUY, break out below PDL = SELL
In this case, there was a break below the PDL which was my first indicator to go short.
Next, I used horizontal lines to mark additional lows for potential TPs since I was selling and I used a previous high for my SL.
The only indicator that I used was the stochastic. You can find a very detailed breakdown of how I use the Stochastic in my previous Editors' Pick video here: www.tradingview.com
I hope this was helpful. If you made it this far, comment a "7" and let me know what you've learned.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
NZD/USD pair trend this weekNZD/USD news:
🔆The US House of Representatives has approved President Donald Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax cut plan, which aims to overhaul the tax system, stimulate economic growth, and ease regulations to foster a more business-friendly environment. This has contributed to a strong rebound in the US dollar.
🔆Additionally, investors anticipate that Trump’s tax policies could drive inflation higher, potentially compelling the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy stance.
🔆In Asia, US 10-year bond yields increased by 0.5%, further supporting the greenback.
🔆Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar has weakened since Friday, following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) February 19 policy decision to cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, as expected. This rate cut has made the NZD less appealing compared to the USD.
Personal opinion:
🔆The NZD/USD pair still maintains the current downtrend. The USD has more room to increase compared to the underperformance of the NZD.
Analysis:
🔆Based on fundamental information combined with important resistance - support levels and trend lines to come up with a suitable
plan
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy NZD/USD 0.5690 - 0.5700
❌SL: 0.5740 | ✅TP: 0.5660 – 0.5600 – 0.5550
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 27 February 2025
- NZDUSD under bearish pressure
- Likely to fall support level 0.5600
NZDUSD currency pair is under bearish pressure after the earlier breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from the start of February.
The breakout of this up channel continues the active impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the key resistance level 0.5760 (former support from December), intersecting with the aforementioned up channel.
NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.5600, a low of the previous minor correction b.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?NZD/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback that is slightly below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.5606
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 0.5567
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.5664
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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NZD/USD Analysis & Trade Setup **Market Structure Update:**
- **Overall Trend:** Bearish continuation.
- **Break of Structure (BOS):** Multiple BOS confirming downward momentum.
- **Change of Character (CHOCH):** Seen at minor pullbacks but failed to reverse trend.
- **Liquidity Zones:**
- **Weak Low (~0.5678 - 0.5680)**: Price just touched this area.
- **Discount Zone (~0.5650 - 0.5670)**: Potential area for reversal.
- **Premium Zone (~0.5750 - 0.5780)**: Potential selling zone.
**Trade Setup & Probability Assessment**
**Scenario 1: Short Trade (High Probability - 75%)**
- **Entry:** **0.5700 - 0.5720** (Potential pullback to PDL level)
- **Stop Loss (SL):** **Above 0.5730**
- **Take Profit (TP):** **0.5650 (Discount Zone)**
- **Risk-Reward (RR):** **1:3+**
- **Probability:** **75%** (Bearish trend continuation, liquidity grab above PDL)
**Scenario 2: Long Trade (Medium Probability - 55%)**
- **Entry:** **0.5675 - 0.5680** (Current weak low area)
- **Stop Loss (SL):** **Below 0.5660**
- **Take Profit (TP):** **0.5720 (Equilibrium Zone)**
- **Risk-Reward (RR):** **1:2**
- **Probability:** **55%** (Possible short-term bounce but against overall trend)
**Conclusion & Recommendation**
- **Best Trade Setup:** Short trade from **0.5700 - 0.5720**, targeting **0.5650**.
- **Weak Low at 0.5680** may break, so a long trade is riskier.
- **Look for bearish confirmations near 0.5700 before entering a short.**
Thu 27th Feb 2025 NZD/USD Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a NZD/USD Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim