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New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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NZDUSD trade ideas

RBNZ Reinforces Dovish Stance and Delivers 50bp Cut Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) and signalled further policy easing is on the table amid softening inflation. This leaves the current OCR at 4.75%. Cuts Ahead The accompanying Rate Statement communicated that the current economic landscape provides scope to reduce rates further. However, the central bank emphasised that rate adjustments depend on the ‘evolving assessment of the economy’ and ‘there are still risks that further adjustments might be faster or slower than currently expected’. The Committee also touched on escalating tensions in the Middle East, noting that it ‘could pose significant risks to both global economic activity and energy prices. Should conflict escalate, oil prices and shipping costs could rise, and adverse investor sentiment could trigger asset price corrections and tighter financial conditions’. Several desks and money markets (the Overnight Index Swaps market) are currently pricing in another 50bp cut for November’s meeting – this will be the last time the central bank meets in 2024. New Zealand’s Economy at a Standstill We must remember that the RBNZ was one of the first G10 central banks to begin rapid policy tightening, and inflation has indeed slowed. However, in the process, demand has weakened, unemployment rose to 4.6% in Q2 24 (the highest rate since early 2021), and the economy has all but reached a standstill over the last two years (real Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.2% in Q2 24) with a shallow technical recession seen in the second half of 2023. Markets will receive the latest CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) data from New Zealand next week – this is released every quarter – with the expectation that CPI inflation will ease back into the RBNZ’s target inflation band of 1-3% in Q3 24 (YoY) from 3.3% in Q2 24. Of note, however, this is tradeable inflation. Domestic inflation (or non-tradeable inflation) is a different story and is proving sticky; the latest release showed that non-tradeable inflation rose 5.4% in Q2 24 (YoY), down from 5.8% in Q1 24. NZD Lower Across the Board Today’s decision/forward guidance sent the New Zealand dollar (NZD) tumbling against G10 peers, with losses most notable versus the US dollar (USD) and Swiss franc (CHF) as of writing. Early London has the NZD trading a whisker north of daily lows versus the USD from NZ$0.6075, propelling the NZD/USD currency pair through a descending resistance-turned-support level (extended from the high of NZ$0.6369). The decision point zone at NZ$0.6035-NZ$0.6056 calls for attention and may see traders begin locking in some profit if the area is tested, given the sell-stops tripped south of the higher low formed at NZ$0.6106 (11 September). The next major support level beyond the decision point to consider is around NZ$0.5991. Overall, per the above structure, the pairing demonstrates scope to continue exploring lower levels.
Short
by FPMarkets
Market Analysis: NZD/USD Take Hit, Turn RedMarket Analysis: NZD/USD Take Hit, Turn Red NZD/USD is also moving lower and might struggle to recover above 0.6225. Important Takeaways for NZD/USD Analysis Today - NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6380 resistance zone. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6145 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen. NZD/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.6380 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.6265 against the US Dollar. The pair settled below the 0.6150 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 0.6075 zone and is currently consolidating losses. Immediate resistance on the upside is near 0.6145. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6145 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6378 swing high to the 0.6074 low. The next resistance is the 0.6225 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6378 swing high to the 0.6074 low is also at 0.6225. If there is a move above 0.6225, the pair could rise toward 0.6265. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 0.6380 resistance zone in the coming days. On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near the 0.6075 level. The next major support is near the 0.6040 zone. If there is a downside break below 0.6040, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6020 level. The next key support is near 0.6000. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
NZD/USD tests 200DMA as RBNZ joins the jumbo rate cut clubNZD/USD is testing the 200-day moving average in the wake of the RBNZ rate decision, a level that one glance tells you is important from a directional risk perspective. Momentum indicators continue to generate bearish signals, but I'm letting the price action tell me what to do near-term. If the 200-day moving average holds you could initiate longs with a stop beneath for protection against reversal. Above, .6110 previously acted as support, meaning the downside break may see it revert to resistance. .6160 may also see some selling, coinciding with the intersection of horizonal resistance at .6157 with the 50-day moving average. If the price were to break above the downtrend running from the recent highs, it may open the door for a bullish reversal to .6210 or even .6254, the intersection of uptrend and horizontal resistance. Alternatively, if the 200DMA gives way, you could sell the break with a tight stop above it or .6110 for protection. A close below the 200 would add to conviction of the trade .6084 is the first downside level of note, but to make the short stack up from a risk-reward perspective, it really requires a trade target of .6049 or .5985.
by FOREXcom
1
Breaking: NZD Slips as RBNZ Cuts Rates by 50 bpsAt its October meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points, lowering it from 5.25% to 4.75%, in line with expectations. The NZD/USD pair deepens its decline, falling below the crucial 100 AND 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A clear break could set the stage for a move toward the psychological 0.6000 level. Looking ahead, traders will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, set for release later on Wednesday.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD/USD - RBNZ poised to cut, but by how much?The New Zealand dollar is down for a sixth straight day and has fallen 3.6% during that time. NZD has stabilized on Tuesday and is trading at 0.6120 in the North American session, down 0.07% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to a cut rates, but by how much? The markets have priced in an oversize rate cut of 50 basis points, but a modest cut of 25 bps cannot be ruled out. The RBNZ joined the rate-cutting club of major central banks in August after holding rates for over a year. The August cut which brought the cash rate down to 5.25%, marked the first rate cut in over four years. That move surprised the markets as the central bank had projected its first rate cut would not take place until mid-2025. Why would the RBNZ slash by 50 bps? Elevated interest rates have weighed on economic activity and GDP contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter. Inflation eased to 3.3% in the second quarter, closer to the RBNZ’s upper band of the 1-3% target range. The RBNZ’s latest projections have inflation falling to 2.3% in Q3. The inflation report won’t be released until next week and if the RBNZ chops rates by 50 bps and inflation is higher than the RBNZ estimate, it will put the central bank in an awkward position. Another factor which supports a 50-bps cut is that the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 50 bps in September, which allows the RBNZ to do the same without risking a sharp decline in the value of the New Zealand dollar. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6137 and 0.6161 There is support at 0.6100 and 0.6076
by OANDA
Will NZD/USD Extend Losses? Traders Await RBNZ’s Interest RateThe NZD/USD pair continues its downward trend, turning lower for the sixth straight day as traders react to the less-than-optimistic Chinese economic outlook. As China remains New Zealand's largest trading partner, any signs of economic slowdown in China tend to have a significant impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Focus on RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to announce its interest rate decision following its scheduled policy meeting. If the RBNZ adopts a hawkish stance due to rising inflationary pressures, it is likely to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR). A rate hike would typically attract more capital inflows, providing support to the NZD. Conversely, if the central bank takes a more dovish approach by lowering the OCR in response to lower inflation, the NZD could weaken further. The RBNZ’s decision will play a crucial role in determining the short-term direction of NZD/USD. Higher rates generally boost a currency, while lower rates tend to weaken it as investors seek higher returns elsewhere. Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Remains In our previous forecast, which you can review here: NZD/USD Slips as Fed Powell Hints at Gradual Rate Cuts, we closed a bearish position from a supply area after successfully capturing downside movement. The current price action suggests another potential bearish impulse, particularly around the 0.60500 level. In a worst-case scenario for the NZD, the price could drop further to 0.58750, another key demand area based on historical support. However, we view this deeper decline as less likely at the moment, given that market sentiment may shift based on the RBNZ's upcoming decision. Waiting for a Bullish Setup Currently, we have no open position on NZD/USD, as we wait for the pair to reach a demand area before considering a potential bullish trade. The demand zone around 0.60500 is a critical level to watch for any signs of reversal, but we remain cautious and are monitoring upcoming economic events closely. Conclusion As the NZD/USD pair continues to slide, all eyes are on the RBNZ and its interest rate decision. Traders should remain vigilant, as a hawkish move could trigger a rebound in the New Zealand Dollar, while dovish policies may deepen the pair's decline. For now, we are on the sidelines, awaiting a clearer opportunity to enter the market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
NZD/USD Hits 1-Month Low, Bullish Outlook Despite Bearish TrendHello, The NZD/USD pair recently hit a fresh 1-month low at 0.61064. Despite this significant drop and its position below key pivot points, the majority remains optimistic about a potential bullish recovery. The 1-day pivot point has held up so far, acting as a support level. In conclusion, while the overall outlook remains bullish, the bearish trend is expected to persist until a stronger support level is established. TradeWithTheTrend3344
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
NZDUSD 2-hour cycle level longNZDUSD 2-hour cycle level long Reason for Going Long:Harmonic Trading System (bullish shark form) +SMC order principle (bullish order block) + Trading Volume distribution + price trading behavior (bullish engulfment) = Go long NZDUSD 2-hour level cycle,current price around 0.61425,enter the long position directly,stop loss level at 0.61000. The first target is around 0.62420,halving the warehouse and promoting protection. Look around 0.63666 for the second target position,then halve the position and push for protection. Follow the tail position and reduce the position for protection.
Long
by Jasmine-Flower
2
NZDUSD to continue in the selloff?NZDUSD - 24h expiry There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. Further downside is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 0.6120 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 0.6090. We look to Sell at 0.6160 (stop at 0.6184) Our profit targets will be 0.6100 and 0.6090 Resistance: 0.6150 / 0.6160 / 0.6175 Support: 0.6120 / 0.6100 / 0.6090 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
2
NZD Sinking as RBNZ Preps 50bps Cut The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to slash the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points this Wednesday, a move that's adding pressure on the New Zealand dollar. A Reuters survey of 28 economists reveals that 60% anticipate the central bank will deliver a half-point cut, while market pricing suggests near-certainty of such a decision. Major banks—ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Kiwibank, and Westpac—are all forecasting a similar outcome. The kiwi has fallen to $0.611, down 3.33% since last Monday, extending its decline into a key technical zone, marked by the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, as well as the 50% retracement level from the July rally. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East are further driving investors into the safe-haven U.S. dollar.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZDUSD → Trade Analysis | SELL SetupYou can expect a reaction in the direction of selling from the specified resistance zone NZDUSD moving higher as it tests the strong resistance level.. We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone. Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity NZDUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Short
by TheGrove
7