NZDUSD LONG IDEA
Buying the hammer head from the daily timeframe, we see a naked 1 grade level in the hourly timeframe, after the rate cut NZD flushed down to the bid level, lets see what happens now.
NZDUSD trade ideas
NZDUSD H4 | Bearish reversalBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.6147, which is a multi-swing high resistance and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 0.6106, an overlap support level close to 50% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss will be at 0.6193, an overlap resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
NZDUSD - Market StructureCurrently in a long position on NZDUSD from the bullish pinbar at a significant level. Will be watching this pair for future signals in the zones marked.
RBNZ: Hawkish hold likely but NZD risks are skewed lowerToday’s RBNZ rate decision could be an nothing-burger or a very big deal. I doubt we’ll see anything in between. There are no updated forecasts, nor a press conference from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr. Just a statement. The last time that occurred it was one of the shortest updates in history.
Risks for NZD/USD appear skewed to the downside considering the RBNZ surprised hawkish just six weeks ago. With little top-tier data since, and the important Q2 New Zealand inflation report not due until this time next week, a repeat performance comes across as likely. With two-year Kiwi interest rate swaps sitting at multi-month lows, it may encourage the bank to retain a hawkish tone given it flows through to most New Zealand mortgages, and therefore important for monetary policy transmission.
But everyone can see the deterioration in the New Zealand economy. It may not be in recession but it might as well be given the data flow outside of GDP. The only thing standing between the RBNZ and a rate cut is sticky domestic inflation.
With only a one-in-three chance given to a rate cut when the RBNZ next meets in August, should the RBNZ surprise with a conditional easing bias in the final paragraph of today’s statement, it could lead to an abrupt decline for NZD/USD. That’s why risks appear skewed in that direction. It has a track record for delivering unexpected surprises.
When it last met in May, the RBNZ simply said policy “needs to remain restrictive”.
For NZD/USD, support is located at .6105, the 200-day moving average at .6073 and at .6050. On the topside, .6150 and .6218 are the initial levels to watch. Should we see a big deviation following the statement, I expect it to be faded considering the far more important data releases for markets this week is yet to arrive, US CPI on Thursday.
DS
NZDUSD: Profit taking into RBNZ decisionNZDUSD – technical overview
Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action.
R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium
S1 0.6048 – 2 July low – Medium
S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong
NZDUSD – fundamental overview
There is no change expected from the RBNZ today, though we have seen profit taking into the event risk. We've also seen some Kiwi selling on the New Zealand Treasury's reporting of weaker sales, with consumers experiencing hardship. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
NZDUSD Bullish NZDUSD has been in an uptrend and after a slight downward consolidation we can expect it to move bullish again.
Also we can see that there is a ABCD haramonic pattern with a 30Min Bullish Div.
NZD edges lower ahead of RBNZ decisionThe New Zealand dollar is steady on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6115, down 0.16% in the European session at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar looked sharp last week against the slumping US dollar, climbing 0.88%.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold its cash rate at 5.50% for an eighth straight time when its meets early on Wednesday. The RBNZ has been unwilling to shift away from its ‘higher for longer’ stance, despite the worsening economic downturn. The services and manufacturing sectors are both showing contraction and consumer and business confidence has been weak. The economy posted annual growth of only 0.3% in the first quarter after two quarters of contraction, which is a technical recession.
The weak New Zealand economy badly needs a rate cut to kick-start growth, but the RBNZ’s first priority is to bring inflation back down to the target band of 1% to 3%, preferably around the 2% midpoint. Inflation eased from 4.7% to 4.0% in the first quarter but this is still above the target band.
What can we expect from the central bank? With a rate hold widely expected at Wednesday’s meeting, the focus will be on the tone of the rate statement. At the previous meeting in May, the RBNZ projected that it wouldn’t lower rates until the third quarter of 2025 and the economy may have worsened since then, which could delay a rate cut even further. I expect that the message from Wednesday’s meeting is that rates will not drop before the inflation picture improves and the RBNZ could warn that rate hikes remain on the table.
NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6114. Below, there is support at 0.6079
0.6180 and 0.6215 are the next lines of resistance
Bullish NZDUSDThis pair is about to test a strong support zone which acted previously as resistance. It is also the formation of of a 2nd shoulder for a bullish H&S pattern. Wait for a bullish impulse follow by a correction on a smaller timeframe to go long on this pair. With our targets to the neckline( previous resist zone) and continue long on the break of our resist zone.
Trade safe
NZDUSD: MultitimeframeHello Traders,
Just like Aussie! kiwi has had a bearish weekly channel.
But it is broken for Kiwi!
regarding the weekly chart we had a reversal or we might need a one!
but considering the daily chart:
We are in a bullish leg of a bullish channel that even broken the shorter term bearish trend line.
Let's long it!
OMG!!! WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW ABOUT NZDUSD PAIRI made a quick video that explains my analysis of NZDUSD and why I am looking to short the pair. It is a well-detailed video that explains a lot of things about my strategy and the way I approach the market. Ask me questions if you don't understand.
Make sure you watch the video from the beginning to the end. thanks
Neutral Strategy with a Buy Outlook, High Risk For PlacementsStrategy: Neutral | Outlook: Buy | Risk for placing orders: High
Trend Identification: The main market trend is bearish, with the current secondary trend showing a short-term upward trajectory. Prices are moving in the upper zone of the downward channel near the support levels of the secondary trend. Investors should be cautious due to the existing accumulation observed in the market.
Fibonacci Retracement: Significant levels with increased risk for trading placements are between 0.60062 and 0.60788, with the risk decreasing above 0.61237 and below 0.59545.
Fibonacci Expansion: Critical resistance points are at 0.62641, 0.63819, and 0.65726. These levels can be used to delineate a potential upward price movement.
Technical Indicators: Technical indicators show increased risk for trading placements in the current phase due to divergence from the main trend.
Detailed Analysis
Trend Identification
The dominant trend in the exchange rate chart is downward. The current secondary short-term trend in the exchange rate chart is upward. Within the main downward trend channel, exchange rate prices are moving upwards in the upper zone. Within the secondary upward trend channel, exchange rate prices are moving upwards in the lower zone. Movement near the lower zone of the secondary trend channel could indicate an imminent reversal against the main price trend direction. The lower zone of the trend channel is considered a support level. Current market conditions contain relative risk for trading placements.
Fibonacci Levels of Support and Resistance
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the Fibonacci Retracement tool, we aim to identify critical support levels and areas with increased risk for trading placements. Applying the Fibonacci Retracement tool to the upward exchange rate trajectory helps define the levels to which the rate can move down without the current price trend being considered reversed. Specifically, under current exchange rate conditions, this point is around 0.60062. The potential for breaking this support point and continuing price movement below 0.60062 requires great caution as it could indicate a trend reversal and significant losses for investors who have placed buy orders. Conversely, breaking this level means the continuation of the main downward price direction.
From the study of the Fibonacci sequence on this currency pair, two important levels emerge that need to be mentioned. Trading placements at any point within these two levels carry increased risk due to pressure accumulation. This range is defined by the levels 0.60062 and 0.60788. Risk decreases above the 0.61237 limit for buy orders and below the 0.59545 limit for sell orders.
Fibonacci Expansion
The use of the Fibonacci Expansion tool aims to identify resistance levels. Based on the latest upward movement in the price chart, these levels can be used to estimate the range of a potential upward price movement. The resistance levels that seem to exist, as well as their distance from the current price, are as follows:
A) 0.62641 – 150 pips
B) 0.63819 – 267 pips
C) 0.65726 – 457 pips
Technical Indicator Analysis
Moving Averages
Current exchange rate prices are between moving averages. The distance from the current price to the moving averages is insignificant, and no conclusions can be drawn. Visualizing the moving average results shows that price movement is not currently aligned with the main trend. However, there may be points in the coming days that could be utilized for trading placements.
MACD
The MACD is marginally positive and moving sideways with unsatisfactory momentum. Visualizing the MACD results does not show deviations from the price trend, which could indicate a potential price trend reversal. MACD results indicate that current price movement is not evolving according to the main trend, as significant pressure accumulation is observed on the price chart.
Moving averages and MACD indicate that the probability of trading placement under current market conditions contains high risk. This conclusion is drawn from the fact that technical indicators do not provide results harmonizing with the prevailing price trend and indicate indecisiveness in trend
Kiwi H4 | Falling to 50% Fibonacci supportThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6098 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.6059 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 0.6147 which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short trade
8th July 24
NY Session
Sellside
3.00 pm
1min FT Entry
1Hr TF Overview
Entry 0.61259
Profit level 0.61150 (0.18%)
Stop level 0.61279 (0.3%)
RR 5.45
Target liquidity lows
NZDUSD: A Break Above 0.6110 Can Push NZDUSD to 0.6200NZDUSD: A Break Above 0.6110 Can Push NZDUSD to 0.6200
NZDUSD completed a bullish wedge pattern.
The price can spend some time in correcting again given that the focus for this week will be on
FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the NFP data on Friday.
This can help NZDUSD rise further during these days considering that the market may speculate again regarding a possible rate cut from the FED in the September meeting.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Harmonic sell NZDUSD- Gartley TF 4H
- Carb TF 1H
!! pattern combo set!!
2 entry sell her and SL in 200% fibo
Telling stop on 1 RR
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.6103
1st Support: 0.6084
1st Resistance: 0.6145
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NZDUSD H4 SHORTPrice is slowly coming up to the next liquidity zone.
From there I will be looking at short confirmations and trading it down to the buy side liquidity levels
Short trade 8th July 24
LND to NY Session
Sellside
10.30 am
15min FT Entry
1Hr TF Overview
Entry 0.61379
Profit level 0.61318 (0.6%)
Stop level 0.61417 (0.10%)
RR 1.61
NZDUSD: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
NZDUSD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell NZDUSD
Entry - 0.6137
Stop - 0.6159
Take - 0.6107
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Bullish All The WayThis is a great season for this pair. It is not everyday we are lucky to find all timeframes aligned in the same direction. This is the case on the NZDUSD today. As at the time of this analysis, all of the timeframes of our analysis, from the Monthly down to the 1 hour, are aligned bullish and they are scream BUY.
On the 4 hour chart, we see that the market is in an uptrend. Price has come in to test our zone and from there we have seen the 1 hour bullishness begin to take off. As at the time of sharing this trade idea, the market has also begun to make progress with the bullishness. We have just witnessed a break of structure bullish. We will now wait for price to pullback into our refined 15 minute zone, from which we will look to take the bullish trade.
If price crashes our zone, then we will as always declare a "setup invalidated", we will abandon this setup so far, and begin our analysis setup anew, in line with new market direction.
NZDUSDNZDUSD is in strong bullish trend.
As the market is consistently printing new HHs and HLs.
currently the market is retracing a bit after last HH, which is also the 50% Fib retracement level and local support as well. if the market successfully sustain this buying confluence the next leg up could go for new HH.
What you guys think of this idea?
