NZDUSD short on Thursday Nov 7, 2024A short on the NZDUSD currency pair based on interest rate differential between the NZD and the USD.
Trading is based almost entirely on technical indicators that use past price action to forecast future price action. However, the trader who ignores fundamental forces that move markets is at a disadvantage to traders who factor fundamental data into their trading decisions.
The fundamental data that have the most effect on exchange rates are interest rates, which affect the perceived value of currencies. While central bank rates are not volatile, the yields on government bonds, such as the U.S. 10-year treasury note, fluctuate on all time frames in global bond markets. Those yields reflect the expectation the market has as to where future central bank rates will go. Bond yields are often a leading indicator of interest rates and of exchange rates. In the forex market, the metric that applies to a currency pair is the interest rate differential, especially the delta, or change in the interest rate differential, on various time frames.
This trade shows a case where movement of the interest rate differential, expressed in basis points, in the positive direction was a leading indicator of movement of the NZDUSD currency pair in the same direction.
