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New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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NZDUSD trade ideas

NZDUSD Faces Resistance After Recent Sell-OffFollowing the significant sell-off last week, the NZDUSD price has retraced to approximately 60% of the previous bearish move. The price appears to have encountered resistance at a zone marked by an upward trendline and the boundary of the channel. Additionally, there is a psychological level at 0.57000. Should the price reject this resistance, it may continue to decline and retest the middle of the consolidation range. On the other hand, if upcoming news releases favour the market, there could be potential for a move higher. The target for the market is a resistance zone near 0.55940
Short
by RTED_Investing
1
NZDUSD ANALYSIS ### 🔄 **Basic Structure of Point 1-2-3 Setup**: 1. **Point 1 (P1):** The initial move or swing low/high (starting point). 2. **Point 2 (P2):** The opposite extreme – the highest high (uptrend) or lowest low (downtrend). 3. **Point 3 (P3):** A correction that doesn’t exceed P1, followed by a potential breakout beyond P2 to confirm a new trend. --- ### ✅ **Chart Analysis (NZD/USD, Heikin Ashi, 15 Min)**: #### 📉 **First Major Bearish Move** (Left side of the chart): - **P1:** Price peaks (Point 2 is marked near 0.571xx). - **P2:** Swing low around 0.563xx (Point 2 in white). - **P3:** Retracement (fails to break the initial high, confirming potential trend change). - Then the price **breaks below P2**, confirming a **new downtrend**. This bearish structure played out with a **short position**, visualized by the red trade box. --- #### 📈 **Reversal to Bullish Trend** (Middle to right side): - After a long downtrend, a shift occurs. - New **Point 1**: A swing low forms (around 0.558xx). - **Point 2**: Price pushes up to a local high (confirmed with white lines). - **Point 3**: Retracement that stays above Point 1 (0.558xx zone). Then: - **TST (Test)** occurs: Price revisits P3 zone but holds. - Break above **Point 2** confirms **bullish trend**. - We see **multiple fractal P1-2-3 formations** up the rally: - Smaller structures form within the bigger bullish move (each followed by breakouts). --- ### 📌 **Most Recent Trade Setup (Far Right)**: - **P1:** Swing low (end of pullback). - **P2:** Local peak after a bullish impulse. - **P3:** Pullback that doesn’t break P1. - **Breakout above P2 confirms long position**, shown by the current green box trade setup. This trade is still active, with the price hovering slightly above entry. --- ### 🧠 Summary (Das Voigt Logic Applied): - The chart follows textbook **Point 1-2-3 trend development**, first bearish, then a clean shift to bullish. - Multiple entries are possible using **sub-structures** within the main trend. - The key is **waiting for P3 to hold** and then **confirmation via breakout of P2**. Would you like me to mark up the chart with the Point 1, 2, 3 labels and send it back for clarity?
Long
by Nashvillera
NZDUSD - Golden Opportunity Alert This pair has been consistently breaking lows for a while — but things just got interesting. It’s now sitting at a key yearly support level, and we're still firmly within a large bullish range. 📈 Translation? Now is the time to buy. This setup is looking like a textbook bounce opportunity. Not only is this one of the cheapest dollar pairs available right now, but with the dollar continuing its broader decline, this could be the best pair to capitalize on in the current market. ⚡ Don’t sleep on this move. Timing is everything. Let me know what you think — and if this breakdown helped you, drop a comment or share it with someone who needs to see it!
Long
by omz_zz
buy usd/nzdThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.5% tomorrow, as global economic conditions and domestic data signal a weaker outlook. While there are risks of a larger cut, the RBNZ is likely to hold back, as uncertainties surrounding the global trade environment, particularly tensions between the US and China, are contributing to global growth concerns. The New Zealand economy is facing sluggish growth, with recent domestic business surveys showing weak economic indicators and lower-than-expected GDP growth for Q1. Despite this, the RBNZ is still inclined to reduce the OCR further, with the intention of bringing it closer to a neutral level of around 3%. However, they will likely avoid committing to a sub-3% OCR at this stage, leaving that decision for future discussions in May. The RBNZ aims to avoid creating market instability with a dramatic policy shift, opting instead to focus on financial stability and making gradual adjustments. The May Monetary Policy Statement will provide clearer guidance as the economic outlook and budget details become more defined. The current OCR forecast of 3.25% may be revised downwards, reflecting the growing downside risks.
by ntr_1908
Bearish continuation?NZD/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.5587 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 0.5623 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 0.5510 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
NZDUSD INTRADAY loss of support at 0.5680NZD/USD maintains a bearish outlook, reinforced by the prevailing downtrend and a confirmed break below the previous consolidation zone. Key Resistance Level: 0.5680 – previous support turned resistance Downside Targets: 0.5520 – initial support 0.5460 and 0.5370 – longer-term bearish targets An oversold bounce may retest 0.5680, but unless the pair breaks above this level, a bearish rejection could reinforce downside continuation toward the key support zones. A daily close above 0.5680, however, would invalidate the bearish scenario, potentially shifting momentum toward 0.5780, with further gains to 0.5850. Conclusion NZD/USD is bearish below 0.5680. Watch for rejection at that level to confirm further downside potential. A break and daily close above 0.5680 would shift the outlook to bullish, opening the path toward 0.5780 and beyond. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Symmetrical triangle.NZDUSD is moving in a downtrend. I tried to draw lines, and it looks like a symmetrical triangle is more likely to be traded today. It's first seen that price attempted to push above the triangle, but it fell straight down again, leaving the upper side with a big wick, also known as a rejection candlestick. Price then continued to move below with a steady movement and steady pullback up again as well. I see that it's currently very deep back into triangle pattern, kind of making the whole pattern more invalid. I think another key factor to think about is that trend lines aren't always straight lines when it speaks to the market, it can also move in zones that extend beyond and below a trend line. At the current moment, price eventually managed to not just push below triangle, but is also gaining momentum down. So here is my trade. Hope you all find success.
Short
by CyberFxTrader
Downside Risk Grows for NZD/USD After Structure FailThe NZD/USD pair has broken down from a well-defined rising wedge pattern, signaling a shift in short-to-medium term momentum. After trending within this rising structure for several weeks, price has now decisively violated the lower trendline, confirming a bearish breakout. The move coincides with a sharp rejection near the 200 EMA, which continues to act as dynamic resistance overhead. Price is now hovering around a key support zone between 0.555 and 0.558 — a level that has historically served as a pivot point. The breakdown is also supported by a clear bearish RSI divergence, where price made higher highs while RSI formed lower highs, indicating weakening momentum. Currently, the RSI sits at around 32.47, approaching oversold territory but not yet showing signs of bullish reversal. If the current support zone fails to hold, we could see further downside pressure, potentially driving the pair toward the next major support region near 0.548–0.540. On the other hand, if buyers step in and absorb the sell-off at these levels, a relief bounce toward the broken trendline or the 200 EMA could be expected — though such a move may face strong resistance.
Short
by unichartz
NZDUSD: Trading Within a Narrow 50-pip RangeNZDUSD: Trading Within a Narrow 50-pip Range The NZDUSD currency pair has been trading within a narrow 50-pip range, stuck between 0.5710 and 0.5760 for about 10 days. It seems likely that this sideways movement will continue in the coming week, as there are no major developments expected. Next week, two key events could impact the US dollar. The first is the decision on Trump's tariffs, expected by April 2 or 3. The second is the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. The U.S. is forecasted to report a decline in job growth to 128,000, down from 151,000 in the previous month. Market conditions may remain choppy, and even if NZDUSD moves lower, I don't expect it to fall below 0.5680. The reversal zone between 0.5680 and 0.5710 will likely remain critical for the pair to regain upward momentum, as highlighted on the chart. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KlejdiCuni
6
NZD/USD 4TF Fundamental and Technical AnalysisNZD/USD 4TF Fundamental and Technical Analysis Fundamental Outlook: The NZD/USD remains under significant bearish pressure due to weak economic data from New Zealand. Recent disappointing figures, including a slowdown in employment growth and declining consumer sentiment, have added to the negative sentiment surrounding the New Zealand dollar. Additionally, New Zealand's exposure to global trade risks, particularly as the U.S. escalates tariffs on Chinese imports, continues to weigh on the currency. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar is benefiting from its safe-haven status amid ongoing global economic uncertainties. This has supported the USD, especially as the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient compared to other regions, including New Zealand. The upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change data (forecast: 137K, previous: 151K) could provide further momentum for the U.S. dollar, potentially pushing NZD/USD lower. Technical Outlook: On the 4-hour timeframe, NZD/USD remains in a strong downtrend, with a bearish flag pattern indicating potential continuation of the decline. The pair has formed key resistance at 0.58490 and support at 0.57400, with the next crucial breakout level at 0.56800. Additionally, we’ve noticed a double top pattern within the minor key resistance at 0.58490, further confirming the likelihood of a bearish move. Our strategy is to wait for a confirmed breakdown below 0.56800, which would trigger a sell limit order at 0.56730. The stop-loss will be set at 0.57530 to manage risk, and the take-profit target is placed at 0.55090, aligning with the next minor support level. In conclusion, the resistance at 0.58490 is a critical level. If it holds, we could see a reversal; if broken, NZD/USD could continue to dominate, pushing the pair lower. 📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Short
by RebornFXTrader
1
Kiwi H1 | Falling to overlap supportThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.5775 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 0.5750 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 0.5819 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM