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New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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NZDUSD trade ideas

Potential Retracement to 0.618 Before Uptrend ContinuationI believe the price will first decline to the marked level before reversing and moving back up. I have drawn a Fibonacci retracement, specifically highlighting the 0.618 level, which is often considered a strong support zone in technical analysis. If the price reaches this level, it may find buying pressure, leading to a potential bullish move. The arrows on the chart illustrate this possible scenario, where the price initially drops and then rebounds upward. However, if the support fails, a deeper decline could occur before any potential recovery.
by AmirHossein.J
Potential bullish rise?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.5692 1st Support: 0.5579 1st Resistance: 0.5798 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
NZDUSDBelow is a fundamental analysis for NZD/USD, structured similarly to the provided model: Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD (February 2025) This analysis examines updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on current economic trends. 1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy New Zealand • GDP and Economic Growth: • The New Zealand economy recorded a modest growth of 0.3% in Q4 2024, indicating cautious expansion amid global uncertainties. • Inflation: • Inflation is projected to trend around 3.5% by autumn 2025, remaining above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) comfort zone. • RBNZ Monetary Policy: • In early February 2025, the RBNZ adjusted its policy by slightly cutting its official cash rate from 5.25% to 5.00% as a response to subdued domestic demand and persistent inflationary pressures. • Unemployment and Labor Market: • The labor market in New Zealand shows mixed signals; while unemployment remains relatively low, wage growth and labor participation are under close watch due to global economic headwinds. United States • GDP and Economic Growth: • The US economy continues to expand robustly, supported by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market. • Inflation: • US inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, prompting the Fed to sustain its cautious monetary stance. • Fed Monetary Policy: • In the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained its benchmark rate within the 4.25% - 4.50% range, reflecting a commitment to balancing inflation risks with growth prospects. • Unemployment and Labor Market: • The US labor market remains tight, with low unemployment figures reinforcing a strong economic backdrop. 2. Geopolitical Factors • Trade Relations and Tariff Policies: • The US continues to signal a tougher stance on trade policies, with potential tariff implementations that could influence global currency flows. Although New Zealand’s trade ties are less directly impacted by these measures, overall global trade uncertainty could affect risk sentiment toward the NZD. • Fiscal Policies: • Expansionary fiscal policies in the US, coupled with a significant budget deficit, may exert downward pressure on the dollar over the longer term, indirectly benefiting the NZD. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – February 11, 2025 Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators): • Long Positions: 55,000 • Short Positions: 60,500 • Net Position: -5,500 (net short on NZD) • This suggests that large speculators are leaning towards a depreciation of the New Zealand dollar in the near term. Commercial Traders (Hedgers): • Long Positions: 80,200 • Short Positions: 68,000 • Net Position: +12,200 (net long on NZD) • Major institutions and corporations appear more optimistic about NZD’s longer-term fundamentals. Small Traders (Non-Reportable): • Long Positions: 3,900 • Short Positions: 3,100 • Net Position: +800 (net long on NZD) • Indicates moderately bullish sentiment among smaller retail traders. Interpretation: • Large speculators’ net short positioning points to near-term bearish expectations. • In contrast, the net long positions held by commercial and small traders suggest that institutional and retail investors expect a longer-term recovery or strengthening of the NZD. 4. Possible Scenarios for NZD/USD Scenario 1: USD Appreciation (Bearish for NZD/USD) • Triggers: • Continued robust performance of the US economy and sustained high interest rates by the Fed. • Further dovish signals or rate cuts by the RBNZ amid domestic economic challenges. • Outcome: • NZD/USD could decline, potentially trading below 0.610. Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement) • Triggers: • Mixed economic data from both New Zealand and the United States. • Both the RBNZ and Fed adopting a “wait-and-see” approach in response to evolving global risks. • Outcome: • NZD/USD may range between 0.620 and 0.640. Scenario 3: NZD Appreciation (Bullish for NZD/USD) • Triggers: • A stabilization or modest improvement in New Zealand’s economic data, leading the RBNZ to delay further rate cuts. • Signs of a slowdown in the US economy prompting expectations of a Fed pivot towards a more dovish policy. • Improved global risk sentiment reducing demand for the safe-haven USD. • Outcome: • NZD/USD could rise above 0.650. 5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data Medium-Term Favorable Scenario for NZD/USD: Consolidation with a Potential for NZD Appreciation Reasons: • Although large speculators are net short, the longer-term positions held by commercial and small traders indicate confidence in a rebound for the NZD. • New Zealand’s economic fundamentals show signs of stabilizing, and a pause in aggressive rate cuts by the RBNZ could support the currency. • A potential dovish pivot by the Fed in response to slowing growth may weaken the US dollar, thus bolstering the NZD/USD pair. Target: • NZD/USD may test levels in the range of 0.640 to 0.650 in the coming months. 6. Disclaimer This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses incurred from the use of this analysis are solely the responsibility of the investor. If you have any further questions or need additional insights, feel free to ask!
by SkylimitBreakPoint
NZD/USD Price Forecast – Double Bottom Breakout Confirmed!NZD/USD has formed a Double Bottom pattern on the 6-hour timeframe, and the neckline breakout is successful—it’s time to trade! With price holding above the EMA 200, bullish momentum is gaining strength. 💰 📊 Technical Analysis: ✅ 💹 Double Bottom Pattern – Strong bullish reversal signal ✅ 📈 Neckline Breakout Confirmed – Entry opportunity for buyers ✅ 📊 EMA 200 Support – Adding strength to the uptrend 🎯 Target Levels: 📌 0.5810 – First short-term target 📌 0.5930 – Final extended target 📢 Trading Strategy: 🔹 Enter after confirmed breakout with strong bullish momentum 🔹 Ensure volume supports the move before entry 🔹 Set stop-loss below the neckline for proper risk management 📈 The trend is strong—follow the move & maximize profits! 🚀💰 📌 Like, comment & follow for more updates! 🔔🔥
Long
by Jos_Pro_Trader
1
NZD: Another outsized cut, RBNZ turning increasingly negativeThe RBNZ has revised its rate cut projections lower multiple times as the economy has cooled faster than expected. This is in stark contrast to the country's nearest neighbour, Australia, which has not yet cut. Across the Tasman Sea, Australia has positive GDP growth and a steady unemployment rate. Sure, they have stickier inflation, but even that is just 0.2% higher than New Zealand. Markets have put an 85% chance of the RBA cutting at its next meeting (here is our preview) as well as almost fully pricing in a 50bp move by the RBNZ (45bp in the price). We expect the projections to replicate a similar pattern where rates fall to a terminal 3% rate. However, there are risks of another dovish revision, and we think the balance of risks is tilted to the downside for NZD next week. The Kiwi dollar is not set to receive the same kind of support destined for the euro and Scandinavian currencies if a Russia-Ukraine truce materialises in February. The US's aggressive protectionist stance targeting China means we retain our bearish bias on NZD/USD, at least through the summer. Explorations below 0.55 are a tangible possibility.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
RBNZ Set to Continue Easing This Week; NZD/USD Eyeing ResistanceFollowing the RBNZ cutting its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) in November 2024, economists and investors expect another bumper 50 bp rate reduction on Wednesday this week – with an outside chance of a more minor 25 bp reduction. A 50 bp (25 bp) adjustment would bring the OCR to 3.75% (4.00%). In addition, markets are also expecting another 75 bps worth of cuts this year. Sluggish Economic Activity I’ve observed little reason to stray from market pricing and expect an additional 50 bp cut this week. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth fell into a technical recession in Q3 24 after printing a second consecutive quarter in negative territory; the -1.5% contraction was the lowest figure since Q2 20. Additionally, unemployment has risen to its highest level since late 2020 at 5.1% (Q4 24), and given inflation remains within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band – Q4 24 inflation increased to 2.2% (matching the 2.2% print in Q3 24) – the central bank has ‘room’ to lower the OCR. With a 50 bp cut largely baked in, and assuming the central bank follows through, I expect a knee-jerk sell-off across New Zealand dollar (NZD) pairs. That said, most focus will be on any change in the rate statement’s language, press conference commentary, and any revisions in the updated economic projections. NZD/USD Vulnerable to the Downside Price action on the monthly timeframe for the NZD/USD (New Zealand dollar versus the US dollar) came within a stone’s throw of testing long-term support from US$0.5511 this month. Anyone following candlestick patterns may note that the current monthly candle is poised to close by way of a bullish engulfing formation. While monthly support is clear, and the bullish engulfing pattern indicates buyers may want to explore higher terrain, the rebound in October 2022 failing to print a meaningful high may concern long-term bulls. Couple this with the overall long-term trend facing south, and any higher rebound could be short-lived. This brings me to the daily timeframe’s structure. Friday wrapped up pencilling in a dominant higher high (US$0.5738), reaching levels not seen since December 2024. What I also find interesting is although we have a higher high, this move represents a possible D-leg to an equal AB=CD resistance between a 200% extension ratio of US$0.5804 and horizontal resistance at US$0.5774, along with a 100% projection ratio (the equal AB=CD structure) at US$0.5789 nestled within the zone. Consequently, although monthly price is testing a support area, my base case is that the path of least resistance remains to the downside for the NZD/USD. Daily resistance between US$0.5804 and US$0.5774, therefore, will be on my watchlist this week. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Short
by FPMarkets
NZD/USD "The Kiwi" Forex Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the NZD/USD "The Kiwi" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 0.56300 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 0.58650 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: NZD/USD "The Kiwi" Forex Market market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. 💫Fundamental Analysis New Zealand Economic Trends: New Zealand's economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2025, driven by consumer spending and business investment. US Economic Trends: The US economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2025, driven by declining business investment and government spending. Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to maintain low interest rates in 2025, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain low interest rates in 2025. Trade Policies: The US-New Zealand trade relationship is expected to remain stable, with no major changes in trade policies anticipated. 💫Macro Economics Global GDP Growth: The World Bank forecasts global GDP growth to accelerate to 3.4% in 2025, up from 3.2% in 2024. Inflation Rate: Global inflation is expected to rise to 3.8% in 2025, driven by increasing demand and supply chain disruptions. Interest Rates: Central banks are expected to maintain low interest rates in 2025, supporting currency markets. Unemployment Rate: The global unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.4% in 2025, driven by job growth in emerging markets. 💫COT Data Net Long Positions: Institutional traders have increased their net long positions in NZD/USD to 55%. COT Ratio: The COT ratio has risen to 2.1, indicating a bullish trend. Open Interest: Open interest in NZD/USD futures has increased by 12% over the past month, indicating growing investor interest. 💫Sentimental Outlook Institutional Sentiment: 60% bullish, 40% bearish Retail Sentiment: 55% bullish, 45% bearish Market Mood: The overall market mood is bullish, with a sentiment score of +25. 💫Technical Analysis Moving Averages: 50-period SMA: 0.5684, 200-period SMA: 0.5594. Relative Strength Index (RSI): 4-hour chart: 54.21, daily chart: 51.14. Bollinger Bands: 4-hour chart: 0.57280 (upper band), 0.5624 (lower band). 💫Market Overview Current Price: 0.57280 Daily Change: 0.08% Weekly Change: 1.40% 💫Next Move Prediction Bullish Move: Potential upside to 0.5850-0.5950. Key Support Levels: 0.5684, 0.5594. Key Resistance Levels: 0.5850, 0.5950. 💫Overall Outlook The overall outlook for NZD/USD is bullish, driven by a combination of fundamental, technical, and sentimental factors. The expected increase in New Zealand's interest rates, bullish market sentiment, and growing investor interest are all supporting the bullish trend. However, investors should remain cautious of potential downside risks, including changes in global trade policies and unexpected economic data releases. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
by Thief_Trader
NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 14 February 2025 - NZDUSD broke the resistance zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5800 NZDUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone between the key resistance level 0.5700 (which stopped the earlier waves iv, 2 and ii), the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from November and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from December. The breakout of this resistance zone stopped the previous minor impulse wave iii of the higher order impulse wave 1 from last October. NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.5800 (former monthly low from November).
Long
by FxProGlobal