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Spain's Political Shift: Rising Investment RisksRecent political developments in Spain, particularly Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Diaz's controversial pro-Palestine remarks, have strained diplomatic relations with Israel and drawn international criticism. This escalating tension raises concerns for investors in the Spanish market. Potential for Instability: Heightened geopolitical tensions and the possibility of increased antisemitism could lead to social and political instability in Spain. This, in turn, could deter foreign investment and damage the country's international standing. Security Risks: The recognition of Palestine amidst ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts elevates the risk of terrorist activity within Spain, further eroding investor confidence. Market Disadvantage: Unlike the US, Spain lacks a significant presence of major technology companies. This makes the Spanish market less attractive during periods of geopolitical uncertainty when investors prioritize stability and high-growth opportunities. Conclusion: The current environment presents a complex web of geopolitical instability, historical tensions, and potential economic disruption, ultimately leading to a volatile market with the potential for negative investment returns.
BME:IBCShort
by signalmastermind
IBEX35 unmoved by Chinese TariffsThe Ibex will not initially suffer from the Chinese veto on domestic wool, and the tax increase on meat imports. It will do so later. And I will explain why, the index does not weight anything in food, only services, finance, and energy. When Banco Santander and BBVA, the textile company Inditex, the telecoms Amadeus and Telefónica and Iberdrola move, the index moves. What is not going to be seen in this index is the almost 100,000 pig farms that are going to be affected by the increase in the cost of exports to China. Spain is the leading exporter of pork products to China. A mainly Andalusian business of more than 1000 million per year for a dozen companies that are in danger, added to the 600 million that Catalonia earns or the 320 million of Aragon or the 90 million that Murcia acquires. The Iberian product is a highly valued product in the Chinese market for its quality and is currently one of the strategic markets for Spanish pork and French brandy, as well as other Andalusian products of solera, being the tenth market for Andalusian products and having triple sales thanks to price increases in January. In other words, Chinese business last year represented around 3,000 million euros for Spain. Andalusian companies exported 1,100 million and from Huelva in particular 900 million of copper and metals and other minerals used in the manufacture of photovoltaic panels, electric vehicles, etc., according to Andalucía Trade. Not only that, but oils and manufactured copper are also exported. As well as the agri-food sector, including fruits and citrus fruits, and other types of health foods and nutritional supplements, and of course the luxury sector, architecture and others will be affected. Already since 2022 the wool veto has forced breeders to manage 9000 tons instead of the 14000 tons that were sold in 2021 according to Interovic data. The problem for Spain is that China, quietly can buy wool from Australia and the bet on synthetic fibers or cotton, have made the sum of the global demand in free fall has made China to have reticence at a sanitary level, but also because of the lack of demand, something that affects Spanish producers. This trend on wool may affect the textile market if a way out of this tr Given that the IBEX35 lives in its mostly dotcom bubble, the ones that can see the displaced effect of these vetoes and demand reductions in China are the Banks and energy companies, as well as textile companies like Inditex if they do not put a solution to it. A severe drop in food production, bovine textile production and leather production could be reflected in many aspects in different regions and in brands of great power in the indicator. This added to the fact that companies such as Vodafone, one of the strongest telecommunication companies in the country, have been adding "Ere after Ere" since 2013, showing a labor market that fights more for experts in space computing and engineering than for people in more everyday areas, could affect the entire Spanish GDP. Today, the 19th holiday on WallStreet, we will detect that the European market and in particular the Ibex slows down its movements at a time when it is trying to seek consolidation at the 11,000 points recovered yesterday. Activity levels are likely to be reduced this day, following the lull in risk premiums that has diverted the markets' attention to the rise in crude oil. Yesterday's closing benchmarks having the S&P500 and Nasdaq kissing highs again driven by their tech giants, despite signs of weakness in US retail sales data, has only reinforced the Fed in its sentiment to implement cuts. Meanwhile, European markets seem ecstatic about yesterday's bullish benchmark and with an eye on the "Big Bet" from the ECB and the Fed that seem to be dancing to the same tune. Today, the Bank of England's rate information is of relevance and tomorrow we will see if the interest rate decisions of the euro zone, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. European risk premiums, as we were saying, have given a temporary respite, with France's being the highest. If we look at the chart, we can clearly see that the current high is at 11,476.05 points set on June 7. And currently the index is fighting in the zone of 11,082 points. If we look at the price bell it is the strongest trading zone at the moment even though it shows a four-pronged bell and two especially prominent ones, being the one with the highs relevant at the moment. Looking at the RSI it is oversold at 45%, so a new attempt to seek higher highs by the bulls would not be uncommon. However, we must take into account the economic situation indicated before with the tariff and sanitary vetoes by China to Spain, because they can do a lot of damage to the economy and this can be reflected in the companies that we have highlighted. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35Long
by ActivTrades
🐃IBEX35 with the 🐮Bulls🐃Already since last Thursday the index tried to force the breakout zone at highs without success, and it seems that since Friday it is getting back on the bulls due to the favorable news in the Eurozone regarding the continuation of the Euro policy. According to President Von der Legen the ECB will not be able to lower interest rates below 3%, and this will cause inflation to take hold across the Eurozone, which will affect productivity, deficits, demographics, etc. Some analysts even mentioned a kind of return to "Japanization" of the Eurozone as it has rebounded to 3.3%. The ECB refers to 5D Inflation (Debt, Deglobalization, Defense, Decarbonization and Demographic Change) wishing to reduce this to 3d inflation (Decarbonization, Deglobalization and Demographic Change), purely inflationary factors according to Commerzbank AG, which have added public spending on these factors. Basically backdated policies will overwhelm "dovish" or rate easing policies, looking for energy transitions and contemplating a demographic winter based on a high number of people of retirement age with no replacement in the short term, pushing up wages. The pressure on defense and the sovereign debt problem are two relevant data also very complicated to adjust in some countries such as Spain in particular. Given that the economic data in the euro zone are beginning to show the so-called "green shoots" as Norman Lamont, British finance minister in the nineties, later used in 2009 by Bruce Kasman of JPMorgan Chase and wanted to use unsuccessfully the executive of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and his vice-president and economy minister Elena Salgado in 2020. It is clear that it is not the same economic paradigm. Although Spanish consumer confidence has shown a slight improvement in April with respect to the previous figure, and PMI data have not been negative, especially in some sectors related to banking and insurance, which are strong, it is also important to remember that the Spanish industrial economy is closely linked to three countries in terms of production: USA, Germany and UK. If these three economies are doing well: "Spain will improve". Therefore, it would not be surprising if the Fed's push towards the US markets as well as a strong FTSE 1000 and the bullish DAX follow-through could be strongly reflected in the Spanish index. It is possible that Milei's visit has reflected in the referential in positive on Monday, due to this affinity with the VOX party and this blow to the socialist executive of Pedro Sanchez. But above all what the price has reflected is that Inditex (ITX), Mango (private group), Tendam (Cortefiel group which is 100% private) are 1.62% of the national GDP and represent 60% of the added value generated by the entire fashion sector as a whole (AFI). IBEX companies in general have performed well, with energy and banking companies standing out. In addition to BBVA's attempted takeover bid for Sabadell. If we look at the chart of the IBEX35 (Ticker AT: ESP35), we can see that since May 9th it has started an upward trend. Forcing an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the 11,384.44 points and this week has started in positive looking for that direction again. There are no bullish signals on the volume bell as it marks a possible return to a price zone near the lows. And the RSI gives no sign of a possible trend although it is slightly oversold at 59.70% which is not surprising in a market with a bullish start to the week. An attempt to test the highs and a return to 11,252 points would not be surprising. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35Long
by ActivTrades
IBEX corrects due to the takeover bidToday morning, the Ascension Day of Christ, the IBEX35 has experienced strong movements due to the news of the hostile takeover bid for Sabadell by BBVA and the possibility of a refusal by the government in view of the destruction of competitiveness in the banking market. Spanish government bonds, as well as Irish bonds, have been drawn. At noon De Guindos and Cipollone will communicate at the ECB regarding this intention to seek interest rates of 2% for next year, perhaps having to adjust for the inflationary risk that is currently a substantial risk. A possible merger in the United States of Europe in the long term, which could begin with its fiscal unification, has also been on the news for weeks. If we look at the IBEX chart, currently there has been a downward opening with the news of the government and this has moved the index to oversold, so its value has moved to the mean, correcting the rises of the last week. While on the RSI, downward turning signals were given on Tuesday and Wednesday, today Thursday they have been executed returning the index to the downside generating a double top at highs. The most traded price zone in 1 hour is located at 10880 points so it would not be unusual to see the index continue to correct its price downwards. It is also true that the Spanish unemployment data has not been really good and inflation has favored consumer companies and the energy, communication, and banking sector in terms of absolute results, so companies like Telefonica have earned 79% more during this first quarter of the year, while fast food chains like Burger King, in particular the Spanish company have increased their indebtedness, due to the drop in fast food consumption that has also spread to Europe. On the other hand, hotel companies are once again experiencing a growth boom; Meliá will open 30 hotels this year with growth expectations of over 8%. These irregular data mean that the index is likely to move in a range fluctuating between 10825 points and the current highs due to the disparity in its sectors. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35Short
by ActivTrades
Elliott Wave Expects IBEX to Pullback LowerShort Term Elliott Wave View on IBEX suggests rally from 10.25.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 10.25.2023 low, wave (1) ended at 10301.2 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 9798.80. The stock extended higher again in wave (3) towards 11139.9. Down from there, wave (4) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave W ended at 10855.4 and wave X ended at 10932.20. Final leg wave Y ended at 10504.09 and this completed wave (4) in higher degree. The Index has turned higher in wave (5). Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 10776.2 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 10612.2. Index extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 11110 and dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 10887.70. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 11227 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 2 is now in progress to correct cycle from 4.16.2024 low before it resumes higher. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) is expected to complete soon, then it should rally in wave ((b)). Afterwards, expect another leg down in wave ((c)) to complete wave 2 before Index resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 10504.09 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
TVC:IBEX35
by Elliottwave-Forecast
IBEX35 Possible Downward TurnEurope's stock markets have extended initial gains at the start of the session and have recovered around 1% from the previous day. The British FTSE100 is back to its historical highs, while the EURoStoxx 50 is once again pushing towards 5,000 points, with SAP being the company that has published the best results report, climbing close to +4%. The Dutch company Prosus also stood out with +3.8% and Philips +2.5%. The IBEX 35 started yesterday with a strong start and today has continued to climb one and a half percentage points after concluding the third best day of the index so far this year. It is in the 11,000-point zone, with a record high of 11,110.28 points. Last week it returned to a low of 10,497.21 points, but on the 17th it began to climb back to the highs. And at the moment companies that were put into question such as Grifols stand out as the most bullish component (+5.3%) within the index, after announcing a successful award of corporate bonds valued at 1,000 million euros. It is followed by Banco Sabadell (+2.1%) at the top while companies such as AcelorMittal (-1.6%) stand out for their poor results, followed by Unicaja (-1%), Enagas has also reported its accounts and is down today despite beating its profit forecasts. PMI news from several European countries including the Eurozone and the UK are due today. And in the afternoon US PMI, Exports, Services and Manufacturing from the FED, as well as new home sales, which in the US have a high impact. Regarding the IBEX 35 in the technical aspect, as we said, the index has been recovering its price. At this moment, it is with a very oversold RSI, so it is quite predictable a turn to the mean, which coincides in the strongest trading zone with a POC of 10,078 points approximately marking the bell to a low zone, so we do not know if this positive data will be enough to keep the Iberian index on its way up or there will be a strong correction and a test at 10,497.21. If we look at the DAX40, while it is true that as the indices have been presented to the upside this drag has pulled the IBEX35, and the candlestick figures seem quite correlated since the 18th. So there may be a partial replica in both and it is likely that its technical representation is similar and is associated with German production data since Spain has among its main customers Germany in its trade balance, and this could be a reason for so much euphoria in the IBEX. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35Short
by ActivTrades
IBEX35 : BULLISH BREAKOUT?- The Madrid stock market has registered a strong rallye since the end of November 2023, the medium-term trend is therefore bullish. - More recently, the market has consolidated in a symmetrical triangle chart pattern, between December and today. Today, the market continues its acceleration with an attempt to clear the upper bound of its symmetrical triangle. The two long moving averages at 55 and 89 periods remain bullish, even showing an acceleration of the rise in the very short term. The Stochastic indicator also appears to be confirming the market's bullish clearing, breaking its bullish trendline and entering the overbought zone. - Although today's crossing is still awaiting validation by the daily close, this is seen as a bullish situation for the Spanish index. Indeed, the triangle pattern generally plays a trend continuation role, and technical indicators also seem to confirm this hypothesis. If this scenario is verified today or in the coming trading sessions, with a close above 10,130.0pts (Fibonacci projection at 23.6%), then new targets towards 10,345.0pts, 10,515.0pts then 10,685.0pts would be possible in the short-medium term. Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst for ActivTrades The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35Long
by ActivTrades
European shares dipped shortly after the opening bell on MondayEUROPEAN SHARES European shares dipped shortly after the opening bell on Monday, extending declines seen in Asia overnight, while US futures also point to a bearish open as the banking crisis keeps pressuring market sentiment. Financial stocks remain the worst performers so far, as worries of a systemic risk in the banking sector linger after the confirmed takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS failed to bring back confidence. Investors are sending benchmarks towards major support levels, limiting their exposure to riskier assets as they still struggle to assess the situation on Financials, ahead of another busy week where the Federal Reserve is expected to decide on rates as well as provide more clues on how monetary policy will be impacted by the recent turmoil. We expect volatile market conditions this week as traders wait for another batch of major macro data alongside speeches and decisions from central bank officials such as the ECB, the Fed, the SNB, the BoE as well as the EU leaders’ summit. The Spanish stock index has registered the worst performance so far in Europe, as prices flirt with the 8,600.0pts level following a significant bearish gap at the open. With the 8,635.0pts level now broken, an extension of the current pull-back towards the 8,430.0pts / 8,360.0pts zone remains the most likely scenario. Pierre Veyret– Technical analyst, ActivTrades
TVC:IBEX35
by ActivTrades
Elliott Wave View: IBEX Soon Reaching Resistance AreaIBEX shows an incomplete bearish sequence from 6.14.2021 high favoring further downside against 5.30.2022 high (8992.7). Short term, Index is now correcting cycle from 5.30.2022 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes. Down from 5.30.2022 high, wave (W) ended at 7191.57 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave (X) rally is currently in progress to correct cycle from 5.30.2022 high with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (W), wave ((a)) ended at 7502.9, pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 7371.70, and wave ((c)) higher ended at 7692.30 which completed wave W. Pullback in wave X ended at 7449.70 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Down from wave W, wave ((a)) ended at 7530.50, wave ((b)) ended at 7660.40, and wave ((c)) lower ended at 7449.70. This completed wave X and now wave Y higher is in progress as a zigzag. Up from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 7745.20, and wave ((b)) ended at 7675.30. Expect wave ((c)) of Y to complete at 7942 – 8249.50. This should complete wave (X) in higher degree and see Index resumes lower or pullback in 3 waves at least.
TVC:IBEX35
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Strong very short-term upward momentum from the October 13th lowStock markets reverse downtrend and may have entered a “corrective” cycle Upcoming economic events Tuesday: US consumer confidence Wednesday: Bank of Canada interest rate decision Thursday: ECB interest rate decision Friday: US personal income and consumption Commentary: IBEX 35 Index: Strong very short-term upward momentum from the October 13th low, current price 7,680 and faces resistance near 7,830, long positions can be technically supported provided price can hold above the 7,426 support which would intersect at a potential 40-degree tentative trend line, if trend line proves true new long positions can be supported near the 7,426 area with stops at 7,385.
SKILLING:SPA35Long
by Skilling