bearish gartley in the chartCrazy idea I found a Bearish Gartley on the weekly chart. Sl and Tp in the chart are clearly. if you have money and patience for me is a good trade. if you agree, write a comment and follow me.
EU50EUR trade ideas
(Weekly) 1dbl bottom 2shoulders 1head 2necks & 1butterflyTVC:SX5E
The amazing price action...
-Reversal double bottom;
-Major bearish trendline broken, the double bottom "neck" broken, validating the double bottom;
-Found resistance at Bearish Butterfly territory;
-Two targets for the Butterfly, the second @2933$ (618% retracement) will forge the 2618 bullish setup with initial and default targets around 3600$, the 127% extension, eventual ab=cd as 2nd target, a 3th and 4th targets above the 161% extension and 224% extension...
-Ascending structure (at yellow) also with a possibility to "support" the price inside it, forging an eventual 3drives pattern in case of a failed Butterfly... directly testing the highs.
-Bearish RSI and MACD Divergence, but looking left/back on previous price action history on similar divergences, the price just forged small degree corrective structures, resuming major trend later...
That said...
Safe Trades;
EUR50 bulls exhausted?EUR50 has been unable to break past 3320 for the past six weeks and may look to retrace soon.
As long as the resistance continues to hold, bears may start to take over.
Focus On Politics Now: STOXX 50Turn your attention now to geopolitics. 2016 all technical anaylsis had been wrong - and not pollsters only.
To predict any direction of European Stockmarkets trader needs to understand precisely what´s about the upcomming elections in Europe.
This trading idea is focused on the EuroSTOXX 50 but linked to the Election in Germany, Netherlands, Italy and the Euro -0.62% as well. Follow up the updates here.
EURO 50 to break topsCurrently above weekly high. retraced down to it, place order 1 Tick above the High and trade the continuation up to 3433. Risk/Reward 1:3
Marine Le Pen is ramping up the EuroSTOXX 50The European economy is showing clear signs of improvement. ECB Chief Mario Draghi said the European recovery was "resilient." The Eurozone PMI rose to its highest level in 69 months.
But the sentiment about Europe is turning bearish again. Why?
Listen to Bob Pisani, CNBC: "Yet there it was: The German DAX down 1.2% to a new low for the year, with the rest of Europe down as well. What gives? It's obvious that political fears are trumping economic optimism."
Why? Because the trading community knows they were wrong on Brexit, they know they were wrong on Donald Trump winning the White House.
Now they are beginning to realize that they could be wrong on the direction of European politics, and they are trying not to get surprised again."
Source: www.cnbc.com
And this is what traders needs to focus on:
European Voters feels threatened by Vladimir Putin in the East and Donald Trump in the West. Marine Le Pen made last Sunday probably a big mistake: She is trying to copy Donald Trump (Make France great again) and same time she is in favour for Vladimir Putin.
Maybe she might fall back behind Emanuell Macron earlier than epected because of this. The mistake Investors are making is probably that French and European Voters are also scared as investors are about any far right wing party. Germany´s AfD lost in 4 weeks only more than 40% of theire likely voters. The polls showing that the AfD falls back quickly from almost 18% to 10% only.
Expect the unexpected: European Voters turning more to those parties calling for a more united and stronger Europe.
If you have doubts about this than google what´s going on in Rumania right now.
EuroStoxx 50 - Ongoing Pullback - 60 minutesAfter a downward breakout from a consolidation figure (flag), the EuroStoxx 50 is pulling back in the Distribution zone between 3232 and 3251 points.
The index is approaching a ST pivot at 3243, but there are strong resistances in the area around 3250: these points are potential sell levels when the pullback momentum weakens.
Euro Stoxx 50 Fino alla scadenza tecnica opzioni di gennaio puo continuare ad oscillare intorno al valore 3300
Supporto importante 3250
Resistenza 3330
Al link una panoramica intermarket
youtu.be
EUSTX50, Bearish signals at resistanceEUSTX50 at resistance Area 3276.98-3326.02, potential move to the downside from this zone (1st management point 3160).
Euro 50 Long Opportunity Euro is in consolidation currently, place entry 1 - 5 ticks above high and straight to 3400, here there may be a rebound and then possibly up to 3500.
Bullish consolidationBoth the Weekly and Daily time frames show Eurostoxx50 has started its bullish consolidation.
Which direction will next leg be, we can not tell from this setup right now.
- The strategic weekly setup is bullish, with strong support zone at 3115-3156. Right now Chikou Span hit past Kumo top, which acts as resistance ahead of market. Price got a bit far away from Kijun Sen, this should also make bulls cautious here a bit. Heikin-Ashi signals momentum exhaustion.
- Below daily Kijun 3267 space would open to a deeper retracement, and market would probably test daily 100wma and weekly Tenkan at 3156. That is the value level where we should look for next buy signal.
If you think in a swing short position, do it only with small size (0,5 risk unit) and strict tight stop.
Consolidation TimeAfter a +22.6% performance since late June 2016, this index has been looking stretched and bound for a consolidation. The long and medium term pictures are still looking positive, a testimony of the general bullish configuration we are still in.
However, the short term (daily) has been consolidating form an overbought condition. Would not put new money to work here on the index. The name of the game is to protect existing European positions and be attuned to tactical opportunities brought about by upcoming earnings releases.
Watch resistance at 3350 and supports at 3200 / 3100.
EUROSTOXX 50: Ready As Well
If you watch diffrent stockmarkets you see that each of them shows a kind of consolidation pattern or ramp ready to move forward and to go higher.
If you see this trading idea and some more from tonight keep in mind that European Retail Investors are "short" for at least 75% to 80% each market.
If you add both together than the conclusion might be that this bull run isn´t over now and might continue until end of this year.
Time To Buy Europe. Now!
If you follow the trading ideas here you might see that the sentiment for Europe is changing dramaticaly, obviously.
In the following days i will up date this trading idea for the ES50 with more information about the huge amount of cash wich Investors definitely draw out of Europe from January to October 2016. The number i remember was above a record 600 B Euro until June 2016 but it will be mutch higher all over the yerar 2016 fore sure.
Expect that a part of this money will return to Europe in the following month. This will push the most Major European Stockmarkets to new record highs. If you watch the trading ideas published here in December 2016 by me you will see that the stockmarkets in Italy, France, Germany and the EuroSTOXX 50 all showing the same pattern (double bottom) and might start now a new major bull market ---> right now.
EUStoxx Roadmap Dec 2016Entering crunch time. Draghi has ECB meeting this week, so lets see. Could surprise
Is Europe-US relative value game reversing?Something has begun in last few days in Europe. Price action in Eurostoxx50 index has been really strong both outright and relative to SP500.
Stoxx50/SPX spread - weekly (left panel):
- Spread rallied quite a lot since June, crossed back above Kijun Sen. This was remarkable, as the value had been holding below Kijun Sen since July/2015! From the October top, we saw retracement slightly below Kijun Sen again.
Last week, before Italian referendum market still looked to continue bearish. But this week we have a remarkable signal! -> Price spikes back above Kijun, and Heikin-Ashi shows a clear reversal.
- Smoothed haDelta+ indicator confirms with a cross up. MACD shows a bearish failure and likely to continue up. EWO ticks higher too.
So far it is just a very early signal, but looks like the underperformance of Stoxx50 relative to SPX may come to an end as the spread could not make a lower low.
As a strategy I'd suggest buying Stoxx50 on dips vs selling SPX. You don't have to rush, probably there will be some dips before the Stoxx50 weekly chart confirms a bullish breakout.
In other words, if you don't trade the spread, but you look to buy equities, Europe can be a better opportunity, while on bearish side SPX has to be picked (if a sell signal confirms)
Stoxx50 - Weekly (right panel):
- Ichimoku is still neutral as price is located in the Kumo cloud, but watch out for forward Senkou B! The 52 weeks average has dropped to 3000, while Senkou A (average of Tenkan and Kijun) started to turn up. This makes some initial bullish bias in the thinner forward Kumo. Chikou Span is trying to cross above past candles too.
Tenkan/Kijun has been weak bullish since August, and all selling attempts were blocked by the weekly Kijun Sen.
The supports of this market are very clear now: 3000 / 2955 / 2900
- Heikin-Ashi signal is bullish, haDelta made a bullish cross above zero. EWO and MACD has initial bullish bias too. Until we get some more bullish confirmation, try to buy retracements to 3080 rather than rusing into longs here.
Not clear at all.Same indecision, with increasing volatilit (-> see ATR!)
Not trending, it is still just a choppy sideaway. Wait until clear signal comes!
