HK33HKD trade ideas
HSI quick trade for the eveningHow to quick trade this?
If there is an opportunity during the US session, Stay on the SHORT side if prices move above 25100.
TP1 at bottom purple line.
If there's a breakout from the channel TP2 at 24600.
SL slightly above the yellow channel (1st candle).
** Do not mistake, this is a separate, shorter term analysis.
Previous post's trade is still running but reduced lot size (reduce ie TPed some of it)
prnt.sc
Hong Kong Stock Index (Trying to break out higer)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (25 AUG 2020)
There are 2 major level that you need to watch out 24,200 as support while 25,500 as resistant.
Now it is trying to break the resistant of 25,500 region and sooner or later it shall break up higher.
It may take some time too. but we shall see 26,000 level soon.
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Hang Seng Index plan (Part 2)This week could see a drop to the lower channel support buffer zone (purple lines) to test if there would still be interest in the mkt for this up move.
Do remember that this seems to be a corrective move (up) relative to the impulse move (downwards) in March. Furthermore, we are already 5 months into the laboured corrective up move, hence we can see pretty heavy selling at various levels.
If you are cautious, you can wait for the down move to begin (break of bottom channel/structural change; could be 1st signs of end of correction).
However, upward speculation could take us to 27K levels. Hence, there could be some bullish profits to be made.
If you want to stay on the bullish side , you can buy at the purple bottom channel lines and TP/sell at the red trendline. SL is placed slightly below the 2nd previous Higher-Low (all shown in chart).
*My opinion is that it may peak in Nov-Dec b4 in confluence with EOY (akin to) profit taking and other conditions including fundamentals and technicals showing up at that stage. The nitro will burn out sooner or later. Let's watch the show. Be cautious with Bulls and use guaranteed SL if your broker provides it.
Possibility of Bullish Trend Using Shark Pattern the detail is shown on the above Idea.
Future Trend of HSI is at equality Condition.
Monday Gap Define Future Trend.
it is possible that HSI Shark can rise Up. (50 %-50%)
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Hang Seng Index plan (Part 1)No apologies for those who like clean charts *winks*... I have a bad memory; I need visual reminders in the form of lines, rectangles and ellipses among others.
Fib78.6 retracement resistance of previous impulse wave down has been tested and rejected weeks ago but so has the Fib50 support recently. This week's value at Fib 61.8 is rather crucial as to whether I continue to stay bullish in an overall bearish biased environment (note that we are bullish on the current retracement happening since the last week of March hitherto, in the higher TF environment). If close is strong above the Fib61.8, I believe it will go test Fib78.6 again. Please see comments in chart above.
Part 2 will be how I see and plan to trade the lower TF. TBC!
Cheers to the weekend!
Hang Seng...Temporarily neutral!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng is moving in a trend channel since the March low`s. This move is either a w-x-y or a w-x-y-x-z pattern in progress.
The latter pattern implies higher highs to come above the wave y high @ 26800 area to finish the move. The upper boundary of the channel could be a good target area for this idea. At 27278.5 price would meet the upper channel line and the down-slopping trendline (grey) which connects the ATH @ 33484 and the possible wave (2) high @ 30280, what would create a false breakout. At the 90 min chart, there is another target to observe. It is a wave „42 of lesser degree and it would end the countertrend move in this area (@ 25800 zones)!
On the other hand, if the @26800 has finished a wave C of (2) we have seen the first waves of a fresh decline within a wave (3) with lower price in the coming weeks ahead.
I'd like to see more clear patterns and evidence for a trade to one or the other side and stay temporarily neutral for Hang Seng!
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI *Update* 27200 is a real possibility ?!Probably slightly higher for a 'hunt come trap' move.
Refer to previous post in link.
Beware Fake Gurus out there !!!!While searching for some resources online, I came across a video that talks about fake gurus
out there who are making obscene amount of money from the students who bought into their
expensive courses, books, clubs, private coaching.....
Do a search on this Mr Dan XXX guy and be a judge yourself if this is for you... (Disclaimer applies) In the world of trading/investment, there too are fake gurus who proclaimed they can teach you how to make money from stock market, forex, etc easily.
It is a vicious cycle of sort where the students were misled into an illusion of getting rich, mastery of the skills over the weekend. I understand the hype, motivation and energy in that environment are high as students high 5 one another and you get influenced when you see the guy beside you taking money out from his wallet and paying the course on site. ....
You cannot think straight, to be honest. One thing led to another and before you knew it, you are heavily in debt and after 6 months or so, you are still at where you are.........
Now, let's take things in perspective. There are good trainers/coaches out there but you have to do your homework. Ask questions , lots of it what exactly will you be learning from his class. Do not be dazzled by the advertisment, the "only 7 seats left" promotion,etc. Trust me, if you call them the next day and ask to be enrolled, they will take you in with both hands albeit putting on a show on phone or in person.
I have said before that signals, strategies on understanding the market or instruments is only 10-20% of the equation. These are information that are available freely online IF you bother to do some research and be patient sifting the gem from the dirt.
If you are already tight in your finance and spending $3000-10,000 on a course seems exorbitant for you, then you may want to use this money instead as your investment capital.
Here are some steps you can take :
1. Open a LIVE and DEMO account
Practise for a minimum of 3-6 months on your demo accounts and ensure it is profitable before you place a single trade on the LIVE account.
2. LIVE account - Find a broker that charges zero or lowest commission on the instruments that you are buying/selling. Take note that the commissions eat into your profits, this are your operating costs of business.
3. Trade per day - Limit to only 1 trade per day no matter how tempting the market may be. This delay is useful in that it trains you to be patient and not get ahead of yourself and also help you to get you balance in the sense that you are not going to strike it rich with trading over night. So, it is not the quantity of trades that determine your profitability.
4. Use micro or mini accounts - This way, you limit your losses and allows you to participate in live trading that offers you the true experience of trading. You need to go through the roller coaster ride of emotions when you are in a live trade. The loss of $1 or $100 is real and that experience is powerful if you harnessed it to goo use.
5. STOP LOSS - From the start, from demo account to your first live trade, ALWAYS use a stop loss. Don't believe the gurus or anyone that you do not need one as the trend is very bullish and you are sure to make money. Take care of your losses or risks and the profits/rewards will come. Be familiar with the process first, get it engrained, develop a system , repeat and rinse before you scale up.
6. DIVERSIFY - Yes, I love gold and silver but I love stocks, forex, futures as well. No matter how good you think you are, when the market starts to take an abrupt turn due to a black swan or any event (eg. upcoming election), your 100% investment in gold will not be wipe out. If your gold is down 10%, your other asset class should be up so that your total portfolio is pretty balanced. This takes time to widen, for beginners , stick to one class first. For me, I start with EURUSD on a micro account earning cents and losing cents for quite a while. It was frustrating when you see and become more confident that your strategy starts to work but at the end , you only make $1 profit instead of $10 or $100. However, your risks are equally small as well, so understand that equation properly.
7. EMOTION CONTROL - To me, this is a lifetime journey. If you look at your life, most of the problem stems from how you handle your emotions be it anger, frustration, stress, disappointment, resentment, envy, hurt, regrets, etc. If we spend time to blame the external world (people or environment) , in a way , we have outsource the power to them. We absolve ourselves from responsibility. And without accepting responsibility, we never really learn, do we ?
You are too early or too late into the market has to do with your emotions more than the instrument itself. You read the news that Gold has shoot up to 2000 level and you entered 5 lots at one go, hoping to catch the next wave ONLY to be disappointed when it corrects to 1900 or so. Immediately you lost 5 x 100 points per contract and you are staring at the paper losses daily until it stabilised or recovered higher. If not, the pain of losing will be excruciating. Is it your greed to want to make it quick that led you to insert 5 contracts instead of 1? Only you know the answers.
8. Consistent with your strategy - If you are using Bollinger band and it works , then stick to it in both your demo and live accounts. If it suits you or you are very good at interpreting it and it yields you a high winning rate, then I see no reason to add on any new ones. For me, I started with moving average (you can see my charts 5 years ago) but I got confused in interpreting the price actions on different time frame). By God's grace, I stumbled on trend lines and I begin using it. It was much clearer and the more I use, the more familiar I become. You can see from my charts I keep it as clean as possible, NO volume, NO RSI, NO MACD, etc just plain old trend lines, support and resistance (horizontal trend lines really) and basic price action patterns like descending wedge, etc.
I hope this article has been useful for some traders/investors who are still jumping from one indicator to another, unsatisfied with the trainer/coach teaching as it make you pay and pay or feel betrayed/angry/disappointed with the market. Look, the Market will go on with or without our participation. We are merely a tiny cog in the system. Without it, the system will not fail.
The million dollar question is if you are not in trading/investment, can you make money elsewhere ? If the answer is a resounding YES, then hesitate no more. Get out of here and put your heart and soul into what you want to do , be it a online business or selling the next sizzling pizza.
To your success !
HSI Bear patter from 2018This is a prediction of HSI trend since 2018 using Wave Theory.
It was a complicated A wave with 5 waves inside caused almost 2 years.
A1 - Oct 2018
A2 - Apr 2019
A3 - Jul 2019
A4 - Jan 2020
A5 - Mar 2020 (the global pandemic concern)
Rebound from A5, It completed a B wave in 4 months.
BA - Apr 2020
BB - May 2020
BC - Jul 2020
Rapid rebound and completion of B wave, strong and quick correction C wave could be expected.
Personally it could be seen in Q4 2020.
Critical Level:
1st target: ~21139
2nd target: ~16800 - 17000
Last target: ~13300
LONG Lower Timeframe (after) wave E = Higher Timeframe wave D?Recent weeks' sell down looks constant but laboured. Soft rejection off a trendline in confluence with short term Daily chart 'after' wave E (ie Buy) and also in confluence with a higher Timeframe chart wave D (ie Buy). However Selling momentum seems relatively persistent. Projecting the end of this buy cycle to be in the box in the above chart. If it happens, look for Big sells from there.
Let's see the outcome.
Chart for higher TF is attached below. You decide!
HANG SENG : BUY BOTTOMHi everyone.
As long as weekly / daily bars do not close under the blue line , I believe monthly swing is valid and we may see higher prices .
Anyway, even though it may be the swing low for the next months , do not trade against the trend in the smaller time frame.
Best of luck :-)
Hang Seng...The first waves of a decline!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng and the Hang Seng short index hasn't made net progress in the latter week. This should imply a pause in a downtrend. If so, Hang Seng is on the verge to break to the wave ((e)) of „B“ low @ 23685, which was the low of the triangle pattern. The more bearish potential exists!
A break of the 24526 area (denoted with the red arrow) implies further weakness for HS and opens the door to the mentioned area before.
I have drawn a trend channel o show how HS is moving lower. One possibility is, that HS will decline in one more down-up-down sequence to complete the first waves of wave ((1)) and a pullback in a wave ((2)) and retrace a 0.5 – 0.618 Fibonacci of the decline. But there is still much time to go for this scenario.
A move above the high @ 26284 – 26347 would lower the count a minimum.
Have a great Sunday...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI possible long Monthly wick.
Next month looking to fill wick.
Weekly ICI - believe it has come to the end of the retracement and started to turn.
4h waiting for market to turn bullish before buying.
