NAS100USD trade ideas
Market Update: Mean Reversion in Play? It never ceases to amaze how, in times of uncertainty, markets tend to revert to their long-term moving averages. Right now, US stocks are taking a hit, pricing in an expected slowdown.
🔻 Nasdaq has broken key technical levels, closing below its 2023-2025 uptrend and 55-week MA (19,770). A weekly close below this will confirm further downside risk, with major support at 16,765 (2021 high).
🔻 S&P 500 is now below its 200-day MA for the first time since Nov 2023 and has also slipped through its 55-week MA (5,611). A weekly close below here could open the door to 4,818 (2021 high).
🔻 Bond Yields are under pressure as markets price in a 50-50 chance of a Fed rate cut in May. Key support to watch: 4.02% (2022-2025 support line).
💵 US Dollar is sliding, with EUR/USD now testing its 200-week MA at 1.0866. Potential consolidation here, but the big level to watch is 1.1145 (2008-2025 downtrend).
⚡ Bitcoin has sold off to its 200-day MA, with a negative bias persisting below 93,000. Our downside target remains 72-72k.
🚨 All eyes on weekly closes for confirmation! 🚨
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NAS 100 Overextended – Brace for a Pullback! The NAS 100 is looking highly overextended at the moment 📊. Market conditions are precarious, with many instruments trading into key support and resistance levels on both the daily and weekly timeframes ⏳.
A sharp pullback 📉 could be on the horizon, potentially offering a counter-trend buying opportunity on the lower timeframes for the US 100 💰. If it pushes higher, it may set up a potential short trade 🎯.
🚨 Not financial advice – trade wisely and manage your risk! ⚖️
US 100 AKA NASDAQ 11 MARCH TRADE IDEAThe NASDAQ 100 (US100) is currently experiencing a pullback after reaching resistance near 22,198 - 22,138, marking a rejection from the upper boundary of its ascending channel. The price has broken below the midline of the channel, suggesting a potential move towards lower support levels. The key downside target in this correction is the 20,758 level, which serves as an initial support area. If this level fails to hold, we could see a further decline towards 18,155 - 17,699, where a stronger demand zone exists. A breakdown below this range would shift the broader bullish outlook and expose the 16,941 level as the next critical support.
Fundamental Analysis:
The NASDAQ 100, being tech-heavy, is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and overall economic sentiment. Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation data, and corporate earnings reports from major tech firms will significantly impact its trajectory. If the Fed signals rate cuts or easing monetary policy, it could support a bullish rebound. However, persistent inflation or higher-for-longer rates could lead to further downside pressure. The ongoing AI and semiconductor boom may provide sector-specific support, but broader market conditions and global macroeconomic risks, including U.S.-China tensions and recession fears, could introduce volatility.
Conclusion:
Technically, NASDAQ 100 is in a corrective phase, with potential downside targets at 20,758 and 18,155 - 17,699. If support holds, the long-term uptrend remains intact, presenting potential long opportunities. However, a break below 16,941 would shift the outlook bearish, opening the door for deeper retracements. Traders should monitor economic reports, interest rate updates, and earnings releases for further confirmation of market direction. 🚀
The Big ReloadI anticipate a significant pullback on the daily timeframe, targeting the $15,000 level before resuming the upward trend.
Following a substantial break in the bullish trend, a robust retracement is expected. This correction should trigger considerable buying momentum around the $15,000 to $16,000 range, presenting opportunities for long-term positions to the upside.
NAS100 (US100) – Bearish Outlook | SMC & ICT AnalysisMarket Structure & Key Levels:
Break of Structure (BOS D): The market confirmed a bearish shift with BOS, showing institutional selling pressure.
4HR Order Flow (OF): Price is tapping into the 4HR Order Block (Supply Zone), a high-probability rejection area.
Liquidity Grab & Distribution: The market may grab buy-side liquidity before continuing lower.
Trade Idea & Bias:
🔻 Short-Term Bearish: Expecting a reaction from the 4HR Order Block, leading to another drop.
🔻 Liquidity Grab & Rejection: Price could sweep weak highs, mitigate the supply zone, and then sell off aggressively.
🔻 Final Target: Price may target IDM Daily & 4HR OF Demand Zone, where buy-side interest could return.
Confluences:
✅ SMC & ICT Methodology: Liquidity grab + Order Block rejection.
✅ Premium vs. Discount: Market is in a premium zone, making it an ideal area for smart money to sell.
✅ Institutional Order Flow: Market makers may push price lower after mitigating the supply zone.
Final Thoughts:
I will look for short positions after price taps the 4HR supply zone and rejects. If rejection confirms, the next bearish target will be at the demand zone below. 🚨
📉 Bearish until confirmation of bullish structure shift at lower levels.
🚨 Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. Always manage risk and follow your trading plan.
#NAS100 #ICT #SMC #OrderBlocks #Liquidity #Forex #TradingView
NAS100SMT divergence has developed and we are starting to see bullish price action. I expect a rally base rally here collecting a lot of pips on the way to our draw of liquidity.
NAS100This is a another look at the long position taken here. We will be target our draw on liquidity, aiming for equal highs. We are looking at 5:1 R:R ratio. Risking 1% to gain 5%.
Nas100We have developed bullish SMT divergence between NAS100 & ES. This is a strong signal to take a long position here.
NASDAQ below its 1W MA50 after 2 years. Doom or recovery ahead??Nasdaq (NDX) broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 years (since week of March 13 2023). That is a strong long-term Support, in fact it is technically the first level to look for during cyclical bull trends. So how bad can a break and/or 1W candle closing below it?
As you can see on this multi-year chart on the 1W time-frame, since the 2008 Housing Crisis, the index has had a number of breaks below its 1W MA50. With the exception of the 2022 Inflation Crisis, which was a cyclical Bear Market like 2008, all of those breaks were short-lived and rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) almost instantly.
In fact, the current technical pull-back resembles the June - August 2011 correction, which after breaking below the 1W MA50, it found support and rebounded on the 1W MA100 in 2 weeks. The rebound that followed rose by +38% in 7 months. If a similar development is followed, which is what we expect, we are looking at a potential end-of-year rally to 24900. This also took place on the 2019 rally.
What makes this 17-year recurring pattern even more interesting is that technical pull-backs such as the current, tend to take place when the 1W RSI Channel Down, a technical Bearish Divergence) hits 40.00 and makes a Lower Low (green circles).
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$NAS100 may settle around 17300 @ 0.382 Fib Retracement PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is already in the correction territory with down more than 10%. If this bear market holds grip, then we might get into the bear market territory with 20% or more correction. This might be coincidental. Let’s get to the numbers behind this reasoning.
The lows on Aug 5th carry trade set back was 17300.
The Trump 1.0 tariff also send the PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 down by 23% before the market started a meaningful bounce. If we have a 23% drawdown from the top of PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 then we will be back @ 17300.
If you plot the upward sloping Fib retracement levels on PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 which we discussed in this blog on 01 March when I sounded bearish predicting a 10% downturn in the near term. Link here. The 0.382 Fib retracement level in this long term upward sloping channel lies around 17300.
Tell me coincidence but all these 3 indicators align at 17300. Will the PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 settle at 17300 before this bear market correction is done and dusted? No one knows.
Buy PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 from here till 17300.
NASDAQ 100 Elliott Wave Analysis – A High-Probability Setup in P📌 Is the NASDAQ 100 in a Bearish Impulse Wave?
Based on Elliott Wave analysis, NASDAQ 100 appears to be in Wave 3 of an ongoing bearish impulse (Wave A or 1). This setup suggests that after the current downward move, we might see a corrective structure before another leg down.
Key Insights:
🔹 Wave Structure: The first wave of this move was a leading diagonal, followed by a pullback. Now, we are likely in Wave 3, which could extend further before a corrective phase begins.
🔹 Retracement Zones: After Wave 3 completes, we expect a corrective structure (Wave 4), which typically retraces between 38.2% and 50% of Wave 3 before Wave 5 resumes.
🔹 Trading Strategy: The most favorable entry zone would be during Wave 5 of A (or 1), ideally in lower timeframes such as H1, H4, or even M15. Before entering a trade, we need to confirm a three-wave corrective structure—whether it forms a sideways correction or a complex zigzag.
📌 Critical Levels to Watch:
A break into Wave 1 territory could invalidate the impulse structure and shift the outlook.
If the corrective phase is shallow, a deeper drop may still be on the table.
🚀 Patience is key! Once the correction completes, the next move could offer a strong trading opportunity.
#NASDAQ100 #ElliottWave #StockMarket #TradingSetup #BearishImpulse
💬 What’s your take? Are we heading lower, or will the market surprise us?
NASDAQ 100 Elliott Wave Analysis – A High-Probability Setup in P📌 Is the NASDAQ 100 in a Bearish Impulse Wave?
Based on Elliott Wave analysis, NASDAQ 100 appears to be in Wave 3 of an ongoing bearish impulse (Wave A or 1). This setup suggests that after the current downward move, we might see a corrective structure before another leg down.
Key Insights:
🔹 Wave Structure: The first wave of this move was a leading diagonal, followed by a pullback. Now, we are likely in Wave 3, which could extend further before a corrective phase begins.
🔹 Retracement Zones: After Wave 3 completes, we expect a corrective structure (Wave 4), which typically retraces between 38.2% and 50% of Wave 3 before Wave 5 resumes.
🔹 Trading Strategy: The most favorable entry zone would be during Wave 5 of A (or 1), ideally in lower timeframes such as H1, H4, or even M15. Before entering a trade, we need to confirm a three-wave corrective structure—whether it forms a sideways correction or a complex zigzag.
📌 Critical Levels to Watch:
A break into Wave 1 territory could invalidate the impulse structure and shift the outlook.
If the corrective phase is shallow, a deeper drop may still be on the table.
🚀 Patience is key! Once the correction completes, the next move could offer a strong trading opportunity.
#NASDAQ100 #ElliottWave #StockMarket #TradingSetup #BearishImpulse
💬 What’s your take? Are we heading lower, or will the market surprise us?
NQ PM Retracement after large down dayPower Of Three.
Expecting retracement during the 3PM Macro after a large down day and took out Daily Low and Daily FVG.
NAS (Indices) still bleeding for sellside correction🙏🏾 As promised in our simple bias methodology, our bearish daily closes are still allowing for the big boys to be adamant about reaching sellside goals for better buy prices
Share with a friend who needs the true levels 🎯
Nasdaq 100 Drops More Than 4.0% Amid Market UncertaintyThe Nasdaq 100 index has already accumulated a loss of over 4.0% during today’s session and has declined more than 12% since its peak on February 18. The strong bearish movement remains intact as the market anticipates that the new 25% tariffs imposed on countries like Mexico and Canada could begin affecting production costs for U.S. companies. In the long run, this may lead to a low-return environment that could be unfavorable for the index.
Additionally, companies such as Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft have seen declines between 3% and 5% in recent sessions, reinforcing the bearish pressure on the Nasdaq due to their heavy weighting within the index.
Momentum Accelerates
With the strong downward bias currently present in the chart, selling pressure has been able to break through the support level at 19,700 points. However, the rapid price acceleration is beginning to have a significant impact, which could lead to short-term bullish corrections.
Oversold Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The bearish momentum has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, which could indicate a high acceleration in recent price movements.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI line continues to decline below the oversold level of 30, suggesting an imbalance between buying and selling forces.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram has dropped to levels not seen since July 2024, indicating a persistent downward acceleration without giving buyers an opportunity to regain control.
The alignment of these indicators suggests a significant acceleration of the bearish trend, which may lead to a standardization of bullish corrections in the short term.
Key Levels:
18,800 points – Near-Term Support: This level corresponds to lows not seen since September 2024. Persistent trading below this level could further accelerate the strong downward bias currently present in the chart.
19,700 points – New Resistance Zone: This level aligns with the lower Bollinger Band, which may serve as the area where potential bullish corrections could take place in the short term.
20,500 points – Distant Resistance: A neutral zone that has been tested by price movements in recent months. A sustained rally back to this level could challenge the current bearish sentiment prevailing in the market.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
US100 Analysis: Bearish Weekly Trend, Bullish Cypher PatternMarket Structure:
Timeframe:
Weekly: Bearish trend still intact.
Daily/4H: A bullish Cypher pattern has formed, offering a potential reversal opportunity.
Key Level:
The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is the ideal entry for this Cypher pattern.
Price is approaching a strong support zone at this level.
Trade Setup: US100 Long (Cypher Pattern Completion at 0.786)
Entry:
Wait for price to reach the 0.786 retracement level of the Cypher pattern.
Look for bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing candle, RSI divergence, or a strong bounce).
Stop-Loss:
Below the X-leg of the Cypher pattern for added safety.
Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 38.2% retracement from the D-leg.
TP2: 61.8% retracement from the D-leg.
TP3: Retest of the recent swing high.
Risk Management & Strategy:
Risk-Reward: Ensure a minimum of 1:2 R/R ratio for this trade.
Confluences for a Strong Entry:
Weekly Bearish Trend: But a temporary bullish retracement is possible.
Fibonacci 0.786 Level: High-probability reversal zone.
RSI Confirmation: Look for oversold conditions.
Price Action: Bullish candlestick formations before entering.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term: Expect a bullish retracement from the Cypher pattern completion at 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Long-Term: If the weekly bearish trend remains strong, watch for rejection around key resistance levels for another short opportunity.
long term buy is coming soonafter this market crush,if you want to make a million this is the time to invest whether youre profitable or not,make yourself a bag,theres plenty of money for everyone in the market
US100 - ShortPrice is moving in bearish trend.
No bullish divergence is formed.
So, sellers will remain in control.
Uncertainty and Bearish Pressure: U.S. Equities Under TrumpU.S. equities are facing a significantly more challenging landscape than initially anticipated with the arrival of Donald Trump's new administration in 2025. Contrary to some initial expectations, which foresaw a favorable environment for stock market growth driven by lower regulations and a more lenient tax policy, markets are experiencing strong bearish pressures, with the Nasdaq 100 officially entering correction territory after falling more than 10% from its recent highs.
The root of this decline lies primarily in the deep uncertainty created by the lack of clarity and consistency in the government's trade policies. Although the stated goal is to revitalize domestic industry and manufacturing through protectionist tariffs, its implementation has been chaotic and contradictory, leaving investors paralyzed, unable to plan strategic investments due to constant changes in government decisions.
In fact, one could argue that trade uncertainty might have been less damaging if tariffs had been clearly introduced from the outset and then gradually removed through diplomatic negotiations, thus avoiding the current climate of indecision. Adding to this is the pressure stemming from government plans to significantly reduce the federal workforce, heightening fears of a prolonged economic stagnation, especially after President Trump recently failed to publicly rule out a possible recession during this period, which he himself described as a "transition".
Additionally, U.S. equities, which had relied heavily on the strong performance of big tech companies—particularly those boosted by advancements in artificial intelligence—are now facing increasing competition from China, a factor that threatens to erode North America's technological supremacy and further pressure the already lofty valuations of these companies.
Looking ahead, a key factor in all this will be the Federal Reserve's response. Although the central bank has pledged caution in its monetary policy, the economic reality we appear to be heading toward could open the door for additional interest rate cuts, provided that tariff uncertainties do not trigger new inflationary pressures. The evolution of these tariffs and the clarity the Trump administration can provide will be crucial in determining the future direction of the markets.
In summary, the initial promise of growth under the new presidential term has been overshadowed by trade and economic uncertainties, which now dominate investors' agendas. The recent market performance underscores that uncertainty is, perhaps, the greatest enemy of stock market growth at this moment.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
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NASDAQ100, US100, NQ LongLong, I am entering without waiting for final confirmation of bullish pressure, lets see how this goes.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trades.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice, trade on your own risk.
Long US100, NQ, NAS100 - Fundamental TraderLong, I have distributed my risk among these trades with proper risk management, my goal is to take some money home at end of the day, who cares about news/tarifs etc shit do...give me my money, trade to earn.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trades.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice, trade on your own risk.
