NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument (Part 40)Since creating the Lowest point of 2025 (monthly HL) on 4/6/2025 @7:10 pm...The low for the NAS100 has closed higher every single week for the past 10 weeks.
This week will not be any different as the market heads continues to head back to the ATH and beyond.
As you look at the charts...the blue lines are my weekly boundaries and the visual is using the H4 chart so as to show you the progression over the last 10 weeks...absolutely no LH to LL trends are seen as continuous.
Do not get fooled into thinking that this market is in a downtrend.
Any sells on the NAS100 are only temporary retracements in order the make the HL on the larger timeframe.
As always, I stand by my stance that the NAS100 will continue to make HL's to HH's guaranteed.
Have a great trading week...
#oneauberstrategy
NAS100USD trade ideas
US100Correlation Between US100 (Nasdaq 100), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Bond Prices
1. Relationship Between 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Bond Prices
Inverse Relationship:
Bond prices and yields move inversely. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa. This is because the fixed coupon payments become less attractive when yields increase, causing existing bond prices to drop to offer comparable yields to new issues.
Current Data (June 13, 2025):
10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.40%, with the bond price near 98.81 (below par), reflecting recent yield increases.
Term Premium:
The term premium on the 10-year Treasury has risen sharply since early April 2025, reaching the highest level in over a decade. This premium compensates investors for risks that short-term yields may not evolve as expected, keeping long-term yields elevated and bond prices suppressed.
2. US100 (Nasdaq 100) and 10-Year Treasury Yield Correlation
Negative Correlation Generally Observed:
The Nasdaq 100 (US100), a tech-heavy equity index, often shows a negative correlation with 10-year Treasury yields. When yields rise, borrowing costs increase, discount rates for future earnings rise, and equities—especially growth stocks—tend to decline. Conversely, falling yields often boost equities.
Recent Trends:
In 2025, rising yields have put pressure on equities, including the Nasdaq 100, as investors demand higher returns from riskier assets. However, periods of yield stabilization or decline can support equity rallies.
Risk Sentiment:
The correlation can vary with market sentiment; during risk-off episodes, both equities and bond yields may fall as investors flock to safety.
3. US100 and Bond Prices
Indirect Relationship via Yields:
Since bond prices move inversely to yields, and yields often move inversely to equities, bond prices and equities like US100 often show a positive correlation in risk-off environments (both falling) and a negative correlation in risk-on environments (equities rising, bond prices falling).
Safe-Haven Demand:
In times of market stress, investors may sell equities and buy bonds, pushing bond prices up and yields down, while equities like US100 decline.
4. Yield Curve and Market Implications
The US yield curve has steepened recently, with the 10-year yield (~4.40%) above the 2-year yield (~3.95%), reflecting expectations of higher long-term inflation and growth risks.
A steepening curve can signal improving growth prospects but also higher financing costs, which can weigh on tech stocks in the US100.
Conclusion
The 10-year Treasury yield and bond prices move inversely, with recent yield increases pushing bond prices below par.
The Nasdaq 100 (US100) typically moves inversely to 10-year yields, as higher yields raise borrowing costs and discount rates, pressuring growth stocks.
The relationship between US100 and bond prices depends on market risk sentiment: in risk-off periods, bond prices rise while equities fall; in risk-on periods, the opposite occurs.
The current steepening yield curve and elevated term premium suggest ongoing volatility and cautious investor positioning affecting both bonds and equities.
#NAS100 #DOLLAR
US100 Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
US100 keeps growing but
The index will soon hit a
Horizontal resistance
Of 22,243 so after the
Retest we will be expecting
A local pullback and a
Local move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NAS100 – Major Rejection from Weekly Supply Zone!The NASDAQ 100 is showing clear signs of weakness after tagging the strong supply zone near 21,927, an area previously respected as resistance. The market printed a bearish daily close after failing to break above, forming a potential double top pattern just below key resistance.
🔵 Key Zones to Watch:
🔼 Supply Zone: 21,765 – 21,927 (Strong institutional selling pressure)
🔽 Next Target 1: 19,185 (mid-structure support)
🔽 Next Target 2: 16,948 (high-volume demand zone)
📉 Bearish Scenario: If price continues to reject the supply area, we expect momentum to shift bearish targeting the 19,185 zone and possibly 16,948 if major U.S. economic data disappoints.
⚡ Why This Setup Matters:
Market is overstretched, showing distribution signs
Risk-off sentiment growing ahead of major economic reports
Volume profile confirms resistance overhead
🎯 Trading Plan:
Monitor for confirmation (bearish engulfing, breakdown of recent lows)
Short bias below 21,765
Watch for reaction at 19,185 and strong buy interest at 16,948 zone
📊 Let’s hear your thoughts: Will NAS100 hold or is a deeper correction coming? Comment below! ⬇️
#NASDAQ #US100 #Indices #BearishReversal #SupplyDemand #SmartMoney #PriceAction #TradingSetup #TradingView #LuxAlgo
NASDAQ Pullback or Reversal? Watching 4H Support ZonePrice is reacting from the 1D resistance zone around 21,950 and now hovering near a 4H support zone at ~21,520.
• 1D Chart: Long wick rejection from resistance.
• 4H Chart: Break of rising wedge and rejection from 1H trendline.
• 1H & 23m Chart: Clear bearish order block formed. Price consolidating under broken structure.
Key Zones:
• Support: 21,500 / 21,325
• Resistance: 21,900 / 22,000
Bias: Bearish below 21,750. Retest of support expected.
USNAS100 Bearish Below 21,790 – Key Levels to WatchUSNAS100 – Overview
The price remains under bearish pressure as long as it trades below the pivot level at 21,790. A continued move lower is expected toward the support at 21,635, and a 15-minute close below this level may extend the bearish trend toward 21,480.
To shift to a bullish outlook, the price must stabilize above 21,920, which could open the path toward 22,090.
Pivot: 21,790
Support Levels: 21,635 · 21,480 · 21,250
Resistance Levels: 21,920 · 22,090 · 22,200
Triple Top Trouble? NAS100 May Be Losing SteamThe NAS100 has formed a potential triple top, and key trendlines are starting to break to the downside. This could signal a short-term correction before bulls attempt another push for new highs. A temporary drop might offer a better long setup if momentum resets.
Macro enviornment effects on equities - Flat to Bearish The current macro-geopolitical environment presents several quantifiable bearish pressures on the Nasdaq. Housing markets are showing real signs of deterioration, with home listings in Florida and other regions down 15–20% from peak prices, and many individual properties seeing $100K+ price cuts—foreshadowing a broader 24–30% drawdown in real estate that could significantly erode consumer wealth and confidence. Labor market weakness is emerging beneath the surface, with rising layoffs in tech and new graduates facing difficulty securing jobs, even as the Fed is projected to cut rates twice by year-end. While disinflation supports policy easing, it is being outweighed by the drag from labor and housing stress. Geopolitically, the escalation risk in the Iran–Israel conflict introduces volatility and commodity price spikes, while the Ukraine war, though stagnating, remains unresolved. U.S. foreign policy appears increasingly erratic, adding further uncertainty premium. These elements combine to create a risk environment where upside in the Nasdaq is capped, and downside exposure remains
Flat to Bearish for the next 12 months, drawdown up to 25% to December 2021 high on NDX and support line during recent tariff crashes. long sustained drawdown would sustain for a while if we get into situations like housing collapse, or entering into a war, even indirectly like we did for Ukraine.
significant. NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
NAS - TIME TO MAKE ACTIVE TRADER ROOM GREATER AGAIN!Team, last week we got a good entry on both DOW/US30 AND NAS100/TEC100
Yes, i do know about the situation with ISRAEL AND IRAN.
This will drag on for at least 3-6 months for the solutions
however, I expect the cease fire should be stop within next week as President Trump's is negotiation with Iran
There are two strategy to trade for the NAS- NASTY market
Rule: make sure you calculate how much position and volume you are taking risk on the trade. Every time you enter, ensure you are understood each trade risk.
As I always do.
The last 90 days we have not losing a single trade - check my new video release soon.
OK, lets get back to the trade set up again
entry small volume at market now.
If market falling down during US session, buy more at the second setting
However, I expect the 1st setting likely to recover soon.
Jump on board now.
See you to the moon
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) daily analysis Distribution & Accumulation Zone🧭 CAPITALCOM:US100
Market Interpretation & Scenarios
🟢 Accumulation Zone (Demand / Buy-Side Liquidity)
21,640–21,720 region
• Strong buying reaction post-CHoCH + bullish BOS.
• Green FVG + “Long” entry = Smart Money likely accumulating.
• Price made a new HH and is now retracing into the gray FVG & BB zone.
• 🔍 If 21,800–21,775 holds, price may push higher and retest or break 21,960.
• 🎯 Upside Targets: 22,000–22,050 (next liquidity grab).
🔴 Distribution Zone (Supply / Sell-Side Liquidity)
21,920–21,960 region
• Premium zone where HH formed, followed by retracement.
• Red FVG + rejection = Smart Money potentially distributing.
• Failure to close above suggests a temporary distribution range.
• ❗️ If gray FVG breaks down, expect a drop toward green FVG (~21,680) or lower.
• A CHoCH near 21,775 would confirm a bearish shift in structure