USB10Y Monthly Outlook March 2023Fundamental Analysis
With NFP around the corner, I wanted to do a fundamental breakdown of the US economy.
US Dollar strength has been sustained although economic indicators are showing signs of recession.
The crypto market is showing signs of a possible bullish reversal.
Overview
Ideas 
Treasury market seeing a bounce - #bondsThe market for the 10 year treasury notes has seen to bottom out for now as we are getting come clear bids coming through in the market. As we speak, the market has bounce off of 118.770 and appears to be testing the 120 handle to the upside. Further resistance can be found at 120.25 and 121 if we c
3% on the 10 year treasury yield - #bondsPowell's message from yesterdays meeting was received by the markets load and clear; 50 bips is coming at the next meeting. This forward guidance by the FED has been the primary driver of higher yields in the markets over the last several weeks. Now that we are sitting at 3% on the 10 year treasury
Ranging bond market - #bonds #yields #recessionThe 10 year treasury note saw a small bounce after nearly hitting 3% on the yields. Since then we only recover a few points and began to establish a sideway trading range at 120.3 and 118.78. As of now those are the key levels to watch in the bond market as this market decides to take a breather fro
Bond market hit 3% and bounced - #bondsThe 10 year treasury market hit 2.98% overnight, just 2 bips shy of the 3% mark before rallying back up. As we mentioned earlier in the week, the 3% target was the likely area the treasury market wanted to revisit so it would be likely that it will see buyers coming in around there. As of now, the r
Bond market settling in at 2.9% yield - #bondsThe treasury market has been dropping hard with a predicted target at 3% on the yield. Currently we are only sitting at 2.9%, which means we still have another 10 bips to fall before the market is satisfy with pricing in the aggressive FED tightening cycle. We are looking for a break of the most rec
Bond market correcting back up - #bondsThe bond market appears to making a corrective wave back up after creating a new weekly low. As we move higher in the bonds, the technical analysis is suggesting to us that a short term reverse head and shoulder may be building up. With the neckline at 121.35, a break of this resistance can quickly
More weakness in bonds - #bondsThe bond market continues its march towards 3% yield in the price action as we made a new daily low in the 10 year. At this point its a matter of when the bond market sell off will take us to 3%, not if. With a slew of economic and central banking data being released this week, its highly likely tha
Another day, another new low in bonds - #bondsBond market continues to see selling pressure from the market as the hawkish fed is driven investors out of the safe asset. As we currently sit at the 120 handle in bonds, we are seeing further selling pressure to the start of this week and a move towards 3% yield is likely to happen. This means the
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