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US 10Y T-Note

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USB10YUSD trade ideas

3% on the 10 year treasury yield - #bondsPowell's message from yesterdays meeting was received by the markets load and clear; 50 bips is coming at the next meeting. This forward guidance by the FED has been the primary driver of higher yields in the markets over the last several weeks. Now that we are sitting at 3% on the 10 year treasury yield and still having not bottomed out, we are likely to test the next level to the downside in the bond market. That level can be found at approx. 117 or roughly 3.25% on the yields.
OANDA:USB10YUSDShort
by GhostSquawk
Bond market hit 3% and bounced - #bondsThe 10 year treasury market hit 2.98% overnight, just 2 bips shy of the 3% mark before rallying back up. As we mentioned earlier in the week, the 3% target was the likely area the treasury market wanted to revisit so it would be likely that it will see buyers coming in around there. As of now, the risk on nature in the overall markets suggest that the treasury market could come back and retest that low level in the bond market. There is no distinct levels for the 10 year treasury market until we get to 117.60 or around 3.25%. We will continue to monitor the weakness in the bond market for further signs of economic risk.
OANDA:USB10YUSD
by GhostSquawk
treasury notes looking weak - #bondsThe bond market has seen further selling in the overnight session while still maintaining the range of 123.12 resistance and the floor price at 121.15. Currently looks like the bond market wants to retest the lows set back last week as we enter the NA trading session. With a slew of FED speakers scheduled to speak today, its likely that any further hawkish tones from the central bank could take bond prices down further as they tried to wheel in inflationary pressure.
OANDA:USB10YUSDShort
by GhostSquawk
Bond market bounces - #bonds The bond market catch a bounce to our resistance point during the previous trading session to settle into the 123.20 area. As we get close to the Payrolls Number from Friday, one of two things is likely to happen: remain neutral or priced in bias. The day before the payrolls release usually will be a strong tell tale sign from the bond market as to what those numbers are expected to be when release. Therefore, monitoring the bond market today will provide a clue as to what's expected.
OANDA:USB10YUSD
by GhostSquawk
Bond market is flashing red - #bondsThe 2-10 year spread inverted for the first time since 2019 and is suggesting a recession is imminent. The 10 year treasury note catch a bounce back to the 123.12 level in the overnight trading session and has since pulled back from resistance. With a slew of data being released this morning, its hard to pin point which direction the bond market wants to trade in, however, if we expand or timeframe further out we can see that the trend is clearly down. Watch out for event volatility that can drive prices back up to the 123.12 or 123.58 level. Both of which would be good levels to short at.
OANDA:USB10YUSDShort
by GhostSquawk
Bond market collapsing overnight - #bondsThe bond market made another new lower low in the overnight trading session. Its becoming clear to bond market participants that the FED and central bankers around the way are serious about fighting inflation. As of now, the yields on the 10 year hit 2.56% overnight and is likely going to continue to go this way until something breaks. Next target for the bond market would be 2.75% yield with bond prices at 120.80 or 3% on the 10 year at 117.80.
OANDA:USB10YUSDShort
by GhostSquawk
New lows in the bond market - #bondsAfter making another new low in the European trading session, the 10 year treasury note is getting a small bounce as we enter the NA trading session. Current market sentiment would suggest further selling in the 10 year taking it down to the 120.25 area. However, after a tremendous selloff like this, we believe a relief bounce is likely to take place. Ideally, we would like to see the 10 year treasury note bounce up to test on of the fib levels at 124.20, 125.18 or 126.07.
OANDA:USB10YUSDLong
by GhostSquawk
Bond market looking to retest support - #bondsThe 10 year treasury note is still falling further despite the 25 dips rate hike from Powell last week. It seems that the bond market is getting the memo on the fact that the FED wants to continue to remain hawkish, leaving ever rate hike on the table. As such. the momentum to the the downside has not let off. Currently we are looking to see if the level from last week at 124 handle will continue to hold as support or if it break down further.
OANDA:USB10YUSDShort
by GhostSquawk