USOIL Market Analysis and Tactical InsightsCurrently, USOIL is trading around $67 per barrel.
On the supply side, while OPEC+ plans to increase production, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding supply uncertainties.
On the demand side, U.S. fuel demand remains resilient, but the subdued global economic outlook may limit crude oil demand growth.
Technically, the daily chart shows moving averages in a bearish alignment, though the short - term RSI suggests relative market strength.
If the price rebounds and faces resistance near $67.9, consider a light short with a target of $66.
If the price stabilizes around $66, a long could be considered, with a target of $67.
USOIL Trading Strategy
sell@67.5-68
tp:66
buy@66
tp:67
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OILUSD trade ideas
WTI Crude Oversold bounce back consolidationThe WTI Crude Oil price action exhibits a bearish sentiment, driven by the prevailing downtrend. The recent price movement appears to be an oversold bounce back, forming a bearish sideways consolidation pattern. This indicates that the bears remain in control, with limited buying interest observed despite the temporary upward correction.
Key Level (69.52):
The critical trading level to watch is at 69.52, which marks the previous intraday consolidation zone. An oversold rally approaching this level could face bearish rejection, reinforcing the downtrend. A failure to break above this zone would likely prompt a continuation of the downside movement.
Support Levels:
If the bearish sentiment prevails and the price is rejected from the 69.52 level, the downside targets include:
67.00 - Immediate support level.
65.73 - Secondary support.
64.23 - Long-term support level.
Bullish Scenario:
On the flip side, a confirmed breakout above the 69.52 resistance level, followed by a daily close above it, would negate the bearish outlook. This breakout could trigger further upward momentum, targeting:
70.42 - Initial resistance post-breakout.
71.02 - Subsequent resistance level.
Conclusion:
While the overall trend remains bearish, an oversold bounce could temporarily push prices higher toward the 69.52 resistance level. Traders should watch for potential rejection or a confirmed breakout at this level to gauge the next directional move. A failure to break above 69.52 would favor bearish continuation, while a breakout and daily close above would open the door for further bullish rallies.
Crude oil can break the neckline of current formationCrude oil has developed the upswing having hit the neckline of cup-and-handle formation. Currently, the price action is muted, but should the price come to test this area again, it might develop the upswing with a target of $70, as it is still considered a fair price from a supply/demand point of view.
OPEC+ has announced plans for several member countries to reduce output by between 189,000 and 435,000 barrels per day until June 2026 to address previous overproduction and tighten supply, so that’s a bullish factor.
Demand from China has slightly decreased, but the situation looks balanced for now and technical factor would probably dominate the action.
Long Idea WTI Crude Oil ($USOIL) – Liquidity Grab🟢 Bullish Scenario (Main Idea): This setup aligns with Smart Money Concepts (SMC), order flow, and liquidity principles—expecting a manipulation move before the real trend resumes.
Waiting on a new ICHOCH to form to valiadte this trade idea.
With A Potential move into the demand zone (marked as liquidity area).
Wait for confirmation after the liquidity grab, for entries a move away from the liquidity box is preferred.
Enter long positions targeting the weekly level at $68.87, followed by $69.33 and beyond.
Stop-loss below the liquidity zone for a tight risk-to-reward ratio.
OIL Today's strategyCurrently, crude oil prices are fluctuating near the resistance level. Recently, the increase in US crude oil inventories has affected the supply dynamics and exerted certain pressure on oil prices. However, overall, the geopolitical tensions and supply risks have a relatively significant supporting effect on oil prices at present.
OIL Today's strategy
sell@68.5-68.8
buy:67.2-67.6
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US OIL LONG RESULT Cruse oil price has been choppy and moving randomly lately especially with Trump's Tarrifs and updates.
But I say the break from the ascending wedge and hold horizontal support zone area and price seemed to be heading to diagonal and horizontal resistance which I set our TP at and boom.
Klassic_Trader.
CRUDE OIL Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL made a sharp
And sudden move up
And it seems that it will
Soon hit a horizontal
Resistance level of 68.80$
From where we can go short
On Oil with the TP of 67.67$
And the SL of 68.87$
Sell!
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Oil Market at Risk: Potential Breakdown Below Key SupportThe oil market is showing signs of weakness, with a technical triangle formation on the verge of breaking down. Key support at USD 66.50 per barrel is under threat, and several fundamental and macroeconomic factors suggest further downside risks.
Some Key Bearish Factors for Oil
1. Weakening Global Economy
Economic indicators across major economies are flashing warning signs. A slowdown in global growth, particularly in China and Europe, is reducing industrial demand for oil. Weaker economic activity typically translates to lower energy consumption, putting pressure on oil prices.
2. Stronger U.S. Dollar
A rising USD makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, leading to lower demand. If the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance on interest rates, a stronger dollar could continue weighing on oil prices.
3. Supply Overhang and Shale Resilience
Despite OPEC+ production cuts, oil supply remains ample. U.S. shale producers have kept output steady, while global inventories are rising. If supply continues to outpace demand, downward pressure on prices is likely.
4. China’s Slowing Recovery
China, the world’s largest oil importer, has struggled with weaker-than-expected economic data. Lower manufacturing activity and sluggish domestic demand are reducing the country’s need for crude oil, further dampening market sentiment.
5. Geopolitical De-escalation
A potential ceasefire in Ukraine could ease concerns over energy supply disruptions. Lower geopolitical risk would reduce the war-driven risk premium on oil, potentially triggering a price decline.
6. Growth in Alternative Energy
The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy is gradually reducing structural demand for crude oil. As governments push for greener energy solutions, long-term oil consumption trends may continue declining.
7. Speculative Unwinding
Traders and hedge funds could accelerate the sell-off if USD 66.50 support breaks. Technical breakdowns often lead to increased short-selling and stop-loss triggers, intensifying downward momentum.
Conclusion: More Downside Ahead?
With a weakening economy, strong dollar, and growing supply concerns, oil faces multiple headwinds. If key technical support at USD 66.50 breaks, the market could see further declines in the short term. Unless demand picks up or supply constraints emerge, the bearish trend may persist.
#OilMarket #CrudeOil #BearishOutlook #Energy
WTI Possible Scenarios:
1- Bullish Scenario:
If the price holds above 66.160, it could push towards 67.900, filling the Fair Value Gap.
A break above 67.900 could confirm further upside potential.
2-Bearish Scenario:
If price breaks below 65.800, it could signal further downside towards 65.500 or lower.
The trendline resistance could push price lower if rejection occurs.
Entry Zone: Around 66.160.
Stop Loss: Around 65.800.
Target Price: Around 67.895.
Crude oil bears pounce again and enter the 3-5 waveJudging from the current trend, although crude oil is in a short-term rebound phase, the overall bearish trend has not changed.Personally, I think the 3-4 wave rebound is likely to have ended, and the MACD indicator shows that the rebound momentum is weak. Therefore, today's operations should focus on shorting the rebound and seizing the falling opportunity of the 3-5 wave.
Suggestions:
1. Go short at $67.20, stop loss 30 pips, take profit $64.80.
2. If the short position of strategy 1 is stopped out, go short again at $67.85, stop loss 30 pips, take profit $66.
3. If the market falls below $66 before 16:00, you can go short at $65.90 with a stop loss of 30 pips to $66.90.