WTI OIL SELLDue to weak oil demand and decent supply, it continues to decline in price.
This is my idea for a short setup.
OILUSD trade ideas
WTI OIL holding the multi-year Support Zone.As mentioned on our last analysis, it is critical for WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) to hold the 1M MA50 (red trend-line) and close the monthly candle (1M) above it. So far it has been holding, the current one is a 1W time-frame chart and as you see even on a weekly basis, all 4 last candles have held the 1M MA50.
At the same time though, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is applying selling pressure for the same time period as a Resistance. If this Zone holds, we still expect a strong rally to start and peak above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Our Target Zone is intact at 91.50 - 92.00.
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USOIL:Long, TP 78-82
After achieving our long position target, we initiated short trades and have already secured a good profit. Orders are now being closed in batches.
From a trend perspective, there's a short-term need for a rebound, though it likely won't be strong. There's still some downside potential, mainly considering the need to fill the gap around 74.9. In the medium term, I believe the likelihood of an upward move is higher, with a target around 79- 82.
USOIL: BUY@73-70 TP 75-78
Oil prices have fallen sharply recently and have touched the support level near the previous low. There may be a range of fluctuations here, but the final breakthrough must be upward, so my trading direction is very clear, buying around the 73-70 area, with a target of 75-78.
USOIL, DailyUSOIL surged above 76.25 after opening the week above both EMAs, which are nearing a golden cross. The price has confirmed its uptrend.
If USOIL closes above 77.50, the price may retest the next resistance at around 78.75.
Conversely, if USOIL remains below 77.50, the price may consolidate within the 76.25-77.50 range.
USOIL: Price review for the week ahead.
This preview of weekly data looks at USOIL where economic data coming up later this week are the main market drivers for the near short-term outlook.
The most important economic data for this week are: Preliminary German inflation, US GDP, EU Flash inflation, US PCE index, NBS manufacturing PMI
Thursday:
Preliminary German inflation rate at 12:00 PM GMT. The market consensus for the month of August is for a decline on the figure of around 0.2% reaching 2.1%. If this is broadly accurate then it could most probably influence the European inflation figure on the following day.
US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Estimate for the second quarter is expected to reach 2.8% against the previous reading of 1.4%. If this optimistic expectation is met then it might boost the Dollar while hurting many of its instruments traded against it.
Friday:
Flash European inflation rate at 09:00 AM GMT. The rate for the month of August is expected to decrease to 2.3% down from the previous reading of 2.6%. This could affect negatively the Euro against its pairs at least in the short term.
U.S core PCE at 12:30 PM GMT. The market is expecting this figure to remain stable at 0.2% month over month but if any unexpected surprise is seen at the time of publication would most probably create volatility in the majority of the dollar pairs.
Saturday:
NBS manufacturing PMI at 01:30 AM GMT where the expectations are for a slight decrease reaching 49.2 points. The NBS is larger than the Caixin and is focusing more on larger state-owned firms. If the expectations are correct then it would mean that the state owned firms might be performing worse but have yet to reach the 50 point level indicating that the manufacturing sector of the NBS survey might still be shrinking and probably might have some effect on production related products like oil, natural gas, silver etc.
USOIL, daily
Oil prices rose after an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon heightened Middle East tensions, with Brent approaching $80 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate surpassing $75.
Despite the escalation, oil fundamentals remained relatively stable, with volatility staying below earlier peaks and options skewing toward puts, indicating a bias toward lower prices. Expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts have also boosted market sentiment, however, caution remains regarding OPEC's plans to increase output, which could limit further price increases. Overall, the outlook for oil prices is bullish due to geopolitical risks and technical support, but caution is advised due to potential market volatility from OPEC actions and the situation in Gaza.
On the technical side, the price has found sufficient support on the lower band of the Bollinger bands around the $72 area and has since rebounded to the upside. The Stochastic oscillator is not near the overbought level hinting that the recent minor bullish trend has still the potential to extend in the short term with the area of $78 being the major resistance level for now consisting of the 50% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level, the upper band of the Bollinger bands as well as the 50 and 100-day moving averages.
Oil in high timeframe Hello traders,
I 've identified a potential buying opportunity based on the daily timeframe. Here's a summary of my insights:
* **Inducement Zone:** Oil has reached the inducement zone around $72.50 on the daily timeframe.
* **Liquidity Sweep:** The price has swept the liquidity below the trendline, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.
* **Strong Buy Signals:** The price action is showing strong signals to move higher, indicating a good opportunity for a low-risk buy.
* **Critical Zones:** I 've identified key resistance levels at $74, $80, and $84, which can help guide my targets and risk management.
Here are some additional points to consider:
* **Confirmation:** Look for confirmation from other technical indicators, such as volume, momentum, or candlestick patterns, to reinforce your analysis.
* **Risk Management:** Implement appropriate risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders, to protect your capital.
* **Market Dynamics:** Stay updated on any news or events that could impact the price of oil, such as geopolitical tensions, changes in supply and demand, or economic data releases.
Remember, trading always involves risk. Conduct thorough research, make informed decisions, and adapt your strategies as needed.
Good luck with your trades!
Will there be a false breakdown WTI ? H4 20.08.2024Will there be a false breakdown WTI ? H4 20.08.2024
Oil is in an interesting situation right now. Initially I was waiting for repositioning to buy, however the price went lower. As a result, I closed my purchases on be and now the question is whether or not there will be a false breakdown of the support zone 71.30-72.40. The poured volume in the margin at 73.50 did not give a buyback reaction, but oil moves very insidiously. It could do a false breakdown and then come back on volumes and form a delayed culmination. In any case, the rebound is somewhere near, so watch carefully.
Possible correction WTI. H4 27.08.2024Possible correction WTI
Oil has now approached the marginal resistance zone 77.41-77.97,
as shown in the previous analysis.
Large point volumes have appeared in the zone and may mean
fixation of purchases and the beginning of accumulation
of corrective sales.
The question is whether the pullback will be
and how deep it will be.
In general, I expect an approach around 1/2 of the margin
and then up again from there. That's why yesterday at 77.40
I closed 50% of buys and I'm still in the waiting mode.
Oil after filling volumes likes to make
gains and then go into a reversal.
USOil WTI Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe current USOil chart exhibits clear signs of price overextension, with the asset pushing into a critical resistance zone. Given this technical setup, a retracement appears probable. My strategy involves seeking a long entry, but only if the price experiences a pullback to the key Fibonacci retracement levels, specifically targeting the 50% to 61.8% zone.
It's crucial to contextualize this analysis within the broader macroeconomic landscape. The recent Bank of Japan rate hike has injected significant volatility into global markets. We must anticipate and account for potential continuation of these heightened volatility conditions, as they could materially impact price action and risk management parameters.
This technical and fundamental confluence presents a compelling setup, but as always, proper risk management is paramount. Traders should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual risk tolerance before executing any positions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to enter any specific trade.
Crude Oil Prices Rising.When the USDWTI Weekly chart is examined; It is observed that price movements continue within the triangle formation. It is evaluated that the Crude Oil price can target the level of 105.52 by passing the 82.00 level upwards in price movements above the level of 78.26, unless the 71.17 level is broken down.
USOIL Potential Downtrend Line Breakout At $77.39 27.08.2024Apply risk management
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Disclaimer
Bullish momentum to extend?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 76.27
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 74.64
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 79.21
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Can USOIL, which has surged due to geopolitical concerns, contin
Due to the expanding armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, supply instability has surged in the crude oil market. Oil prices shot up by 3% in a single day due to temporary halts in oil production caused by political risks in Libya.
While geopolitical risks have not significantly impacted oil prices in recent weeks, escalating tensions will likely influence future movements. In particular, the suspension of oil production in Libya, a major exporter of about 1 million barrels per day, could substantially impact the oil market.
USOIL has experienced a significant surge, breaking through the 76.50 level. Additionally, the EMA21 is about to golden-cross the EMA78, indicating a strong bullish signal. In addition, the formation of a double-bottom pattern clearly shows a positive future price outlook for USOIL.
If USOIL continues its current uptrend and breaks the 77.50 resistance, the price may gain upward momentum toward the 79.00 level. Conversely, if USOIL breaks the 75.00 threshold, the price could fall further toward the 74.20 support level.
WTI US Crude Oil - In Bearish TrendIt is in bearish trend after testing 1D resistance level. I have chosen 1H for my analysis and trade. No divergence is observed. Placed a pending order of Sell Stop.
The Signal is:
EP: 75.62
SL: 77.48
TP: 73.76
RR: 0.25%
WTI US OIL - In Bearish TrendWTI after reaching a resistance zone on 1D time frame, making a return (bearish trend). No divergence is noticed on hourly time frame. I have placed a pending order of sell stop.
The Signal is:
EP: 77.09
SL: 78.73
TP: 75.45
RR: 0.5%
WTI US Crude Oil - In Bullish TrendWTI US Crude Oil is in bullish trend in an hourly chart but it is sideways in daily time frame. I have marked R&S zones for daily time frame and support zones only for an hourly chart because it is in bullish trend. I have not observed any divergence on an hourly chart. A pending order of Buy Limit is placed by using FIB on the last swing @ 0.382 level.
The Signal is:
EP: 75.60
SL: 74.84
TP: 76.36
RR: 1%
WTI US Crude OIL - In Downward TrendThis commodity is under my radar for a while. Only Daily time frame the chart is sideways and I have marked key levels over it. The chart is on the downward swing of the daily sideways chart. I have planned my entry on an hourly chart with no divergence.
The Signal is:
EP: 74.480
SL: 75.580
TP: 73.380
RR: 1%
US OIL - Bearish TrendIn bearish trend. Analysis is done on a hourly chart.
EP: 72.50
SL: 73.41
TP: 71.59
USOUSD (WTI US OIL Crude Cash) - In Bullish TrendThis commodity is in bullish trend after having a bullish divergence. I have waited for the symmetrical triangle breakout before entering into an instant buy trade (Market Execution). The analysis is done on an hourly time frame.
The Signal is:
EP: 74.40
SL: 72.459
TP1: 76.341
TP2: 78.282
RR: 0.25%
USOIL AnalysisOil prices have surged on Monday, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and potential disruptions in Libyan oil production. The recent uptick in violence between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with ongoing drone attacks and bombings, has severely diminished the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire deal, pushing oil prices higher.
Adding fuel to the fire, Libya is facing a significant disruption in oil production due to an internal political conflict between rival governments vying for control over the central bank. The sudden halt in production exacerbates supply concerns, contributing to the sharp rise in oil prices.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling after a poor performance last week, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's confirmation of an impending interest rate cut in September. However, markets may be overestimating the scale and pace of these cuts, which could have broader implications for the oil market if expectations are not met.
Technical Analysis
Oil is currently in a strong position at the start of the week. Despite fears of a sell-off from hedge funds, oil prices have rallied, potentially inviting more bullish positioning. The violence in the Middle East raises doubts about the feasibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and any further escalation could drive prices even higher.
On the technical front, WTI Crude Oil is trading around $77.07, while Brent Crude is at $80.44. A key resistance level is at $77.65, which aligns with both a descending trendline and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A break above this level could see the 100-day SMA at $78.45 act as another potential rejection point.
On the downside, support remains at $71.17, the low from August 5, which has provided a base for the current rebound. Should prices fall below $70.00, the next significant support levels to watch are $68.00 and $67.11, the latter being the lowest point from the triple bottom formation seen in June 2023.
Crude oil 76.5 buy tp :79!Last week I have been stressing that crude oil 74 is a one-hour bottom support and has not formed a new low and every day is building a bottom to push up the price which will be the rhythm of the correction and continue to rise!
If you follow my advice then you will make at least $30 more profit!
Many of my articles will be blocked but my prediction accuracy is over 100% if you want to get a factual trading signal you can click on my website to contact me! In case I can't be reached
The trend of crude oil in the last two trading days formed a V-shaped trend line has reached the bottom position, so this position you just need to buy you can make money!
Crude oil 76.5 buy tp :79!
