Long Entry – Technical & Fundamental Breakdown Technical Rationale:
I’ve taken a long position following a liquidity grab during last night’s session. Price is still respecting the broader bullish structure, and the move down to $68.77 appeared to be a stop run, faking out breakout shorts. My next target is the weekly level around $70.50, assuming no major market shocks through the rest of the week.
Fundamental Rationale:
I remain unconvinced by the current peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, this is likely a slow-moving narrative, and the market seems to be discounting it for now. Supply constraints are still in play, particularly after the new U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan oil. Yesterday’s larger-than-expected API crude draw is also supporting prices. Meanwhile, ongoing conflict between Israel and Iranian proxies continues to disrupt Red Sea shipping, adding further pressure to global supply.
COT Data Summary:
Overall decline in positioning signals caution, not outright bullishness.
Managed Money added to shorts a slight bearish tilt.
Institutional positioning (Other Reportables) shows a mild bullish bias.
The market appears to be watching key support levels and waiting on further fundamental catalysts.
