OIL_CRUDE trade ideas
#Oil bullish wave 5 to come
Hi folks, hope you're doing well.
Looking at oil, we can identify a clear 3-wave bullish move. In my view, the price is currently forming a wave C of wave 4.
Following this, we can anticipate the start of wave 5. Historically, in commodities, wave 5 is often the extended wave, which means, if we're correct, this setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
According to Elliott Wave's rule of alternation, since wave 2 was sharp and quick, we can expect wave 4 to be more shallow and prolonged in duration.
It seems that wave 4 is developing into a zigzag pattern, and if that's the case, we might see the price dip slightly below the bottom of wave A.
USOIL BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is obviously falling on the 8H timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 76.44 because the pair is oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
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Potential bullish rise?WTI oil (XTI/USD) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 69.90
1st Support: 68.16
1st Resistance: 72.36
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USOIL: Bullish Potential USOIL has broken through its descending trendline on the daily timeframe and is now poised for a retest at a critical support level. From a technical standpoint, the setup looks bullish, suggesting a potential upside. On the fundamental side, any escalation in the Middle East could trigger a significant bull run, adding fuel to the rally. As always, effective risk management is key in navigating these volatile markets.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Price is bottoming. Excellent long trade.WTI Crude Oil is borderline neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.282, MACD = 0.240, ADX = 34.094) as it is consolidating just over the HL trendline and under the 4H MA200. This consolidation so close to a Support is technically a bottoming process. January-February 2023 exhibited similar behavior that caused the price to rebound towards the R1 level again. The patterns are so far very similar, so we expect the price action to complete the sequence by rising again towards the R1. Aim just under it (TP = 76.50) to lower the risk.
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USOIL (WTI) HELLO TRADERS
As i can see usoil has successfully tested a strong weekly and daily based support chart is crystal clear for a technical analysis our risk reward is great on this setup friends its just a trade idea share ur thoughts with us and do a proper search befor taking any trade
Stay Tuned
WTI USOUSD Short day tradingBearish Arguments
VANTAGE:USOUSD
Previous Month Low (PML) is holding strong.
Previous Week Low (PWL) remains unbroken.
Previous Day Low (PDL) is respected.
Daily Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) is acting as resistance.
Monthly Bearish FVG is also being respected.
4H Bearish FVG is holding.
4H Swing High is capping price action.
4H Swing Low is holding as a short-term support, but may break down soon.
Trade Management
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 2
Stop-Loss (SL): Placed near the 4H FVG to protect against upward moves.
Take-Profit (TP): Targeting the swing low (SSL). Although price could extend lower, securing profits in this zone ensures gains in case of a rebound.
Risk: 3%
WTI OILBased off chart analysis ,oil is forming a nice pattern easy to read and digest
in this scenario I am waiting for it to either bounce on the purple line upwards side and depending on how the Middle east news pans out and the US oil inventory updates i will buy or sell off that with targets indicated in the chart
Its a matter of patience
don't miss fundamentals when dealing with OIL
W-Formation in USOIL Signals a Strong Bullish Opportunity
USOIL has formed a classic W-bottom pattern, with the only remaining resistance around the MA30. There is a high probability of a breakout, making this an ideal time to go long.
If you have been holding a long position and were concerned about it, congratulations—you're likely to see a favorable outcome soon. Moreover, if your available capital allows, this is a strong opportunity to add to your position and maximize potential gains.
WTI on course towards 30$I assume that the WTI bulls will have nothing to laugh about for the foreseeable future and that the price will more than halve before anything changes.
OIL Weakness (RECESSION)Oil is showing significant weakness, for the past 8 years price was trading within this channel (the blue lines) it broke down during covid and up during the russian invasion, but now with all the significant events and geopolitical instability, price broke down and couldn't recapture it, as it acted as resistance, if oil fails and close a weekly candle below 65$, expect 50$ then 30$ then 17$ which means the worse.
We're most likely in a recession
WTI Long Bullish momentumWTI Long
Broke out of descending channel. Retrace into channel top/FVG.
Ready to continue price upwards to fill volume gap on the 4H chart.
WTI OIL Strong buy signal on the 0.618 FibWTI Oil (USOIL) gave us the best of sell signals on our last analysis (October 08, see chart below) as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) initiated a strong decline that hit our 72.50 Target:
The decline broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and even reached yesterday the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which on the similar Channel Up fractal of early 2024 was the level where the Higher Low was priced, bottomed and started the next Bullish Leg.
The presence of the Lower Highs trend-line since the September 28 2023 High however, doesn't give us much upside room for a great rally, so we will turn bullish again but only for the short-term, targeting 78.50.
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Seeing a possible buy in USOil A simple break and RETEST. Well I say this will be a 50/50 cause USOIL is volatile, it might stop me out and go to the same direction, what are your thoughts?
Oil Oversold? Middle East Risks Remain Oil Oversold? Middle East Risks Remain
Oil prices are cooling off as concerns over the nature and scale of Israel’s retaliation to Iran become known. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated to the Biden administration that they will be targeting military rather than oil nor nuclear facilities.
Israel could be keeping oil-related targets as a last resort, depending on how Iran responds to any military strikes.
Iran accounts for around 4% of global oil production. However, Iran’s production isn’t the only worry. Broader concerns over regional stability, particularly involving the Strait of Hormuz, should continue to weigh heavily on energy markets. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil, and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG), passes through the strait that is bordered by Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman.
If the price fails to hold the $70 support, WTI could slide toward the next support zone of at $66.90, the low from October, and $65.50, a level not seen since September.
USOIL - 0.618 fibonnaci zoneUSOIl trading near 0.618 golden zone on daily time frame
Also on 15 min time frame a bullish pattern (W pattern) is formed which gives sign for upside movement.
This chart is only for educational purpose. Please do your own study before taking any trades
USOIL: Bullish Fundamentals and 61.60% Probability for LongsKey Fundamentals
- Decreased OPEC Exports: Recent reports indicate a decline in crude oil exports from OPEC and Russia, tightening the market as refinery runs ramp up for seasonal demand. This reduction in supply is likely to exert upward pressure on prices2.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, continue to add a risk premium to oil prices. Traders are increasingly factoring these uncertainties into their market strategies2.
- Rising Demand: With the U.S. economy showing signs of recovery and better-than-expected market fundamentals, demand for oil is anticipated to rise, further supporting higher prices12.
- Technical Indicators: Current market sentiment shows USOIL trading above its pivot point of $74.80, with support levels around $74.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.16, indicating a healthy trend without being overbought1.
I'm employing a probability-based strategy to position myself for long trades in USOIL.
By incorporating these fundamentals and probability analysis into my trading approach, I aim to leverage the current bullish sentiment in USOIL effectively.
12M:
2W:
Hourly TFs:
USOILUSOIL is in reversal mode
bullish divergence making now.
we wait and watch for the more confirmation.
If it will break the last HH then we enter .
Why Accumulation Signals a Bullish Future for USOILH ello,
Per the green dotted lines, large players seem to accumulate USOIL. The rising volume data on the bottom chart backs this claim.
The price action resolves within a falling channel. This kind of channel usually breaks upwards. The combination of the bullish channel and the accumulative sentiment signals a bullish future for USOIL.
The same approach was profitable in 2022 and formed a successful trade until July 2022. Unless USOIL breaks the green support zone downward, I expect a bullish outcome in the upcoming long position.
Regards,
Ely
Will WTI Recover From Heavy Selling?That was a big bang in the oil. However, in view of the fragile geopolitical situation, it remains questionable whether the price losses are sustainable. We expect WTI to return to around USD 73.80 and are therefore opening a long position with an RRR of around 1.7:1.
