Market Analysis: Oil Slides — Traders Eye Macro TriggersMarket Analysis: Oil Slides — Traders Eye Macro Triggers
WTI Crude oil is down over 15% and remains at risk of more losses.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude oil extended losses below the $68.00 support zone.
- A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $65.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil Price
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $77.00 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $72.00.
There was a steady decline below the $70.00 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $68.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested the $63.70 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $63.69, and the price is now consolidating losses.
On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $65.60 zone. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $65.60. The next resistance is near the $66.80 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $76.93 swing high to the $63.69 low.
The main resistance is $70.30 and the 50% Fib retracement level. A clear move above the $70.30 zone could send the price toward $71.90.
The next key resistance is near $76.90. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $78.00. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80.00 level.
Immediate support is near the $63.70 level. The next major support on the WTI Crude Oil chart is near $62.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $60.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $55.00 support zone.
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OIL_CRUDE trade ideas
Major support zone?XTI/USD is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 65.64
1st Support: 60.10
1st Resistance: 71.18
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#USOIIL #WTI 1H📈 #USOIL 1H Buy Setup – Liquidity Sweep in Play
Crude Oil is consolidating after a sharp decline, forming a potential setup for a liquidity sweep below the current range, followed by a bullish reversal. We're anticipating a fakeout move to grab sell-side liquidity before price targets the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and premium supply zone above.
🟩 Buy Limit: 64.50 / 64.00
🎯 Targets: 70.00 → 72.00+
❌ Stop Loss: 63.00
This setup offers high risk-to-reward potential if the liquidity sweep plays out as expected. Monitor price action closely at the buy zone.
#CrudeOil #WTI #SmartMoney #TradingStrategy
Analysis of Crude Oil's Opening Market Strategy on MondayWTI crude oil futures stabilized for the second consecutive day, maintaining fluctuations within the broad range of Tuesday and oscillating around the key level of $65.12. A sustained break below this level would confirm the resurgence of selling pressure, and a breach of $64.00 could trigger a decline toward $61.90. On the upside, if the price holds above $65.12, it may drive a short-term rebound to $67.44, and if momentum strengthens, it could further test $71.20.
Crude oil prices remain range-bound, but downward pressure is building. Robust U.S. demand provides support, yet macroeconomic caution and uncertainties over OPEC+ intentions are suppressing market sentiment. A decisive break below $65.12 would confirm the bearish trend, with bears targeting $61.90. Conversely, if this level holds, neutral-to-bullish logic remains valid, though upside potential remains constrained unless supply-demand signals converge overall.
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Trading Strategy:
buy@63.1-63.3
TP:66.3-69.9
Market next move ❗ Disrupted Market Outlook:
⚠️ False Breakout Risk:
The recent "Breakout" above previous highs may be a bull trap. Although price surged, the follow-up candles are showing lower highs, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.
📉 Bearish Divergence (not shown but likely):
Based on the price action, there's a potential bearish divergence with RSI/MACD (if overlaid), as price makes higher highs while momentum likely weakens.
🔄 Resistance Reversal Zone:
The area labeled as "Support area" at the top (near $67.50) is actually acting as resistance again — the market is failing to hold above this level.
🔁 Retest Failure:
After the breakout, price failed to establish strong support and is consolidating below the highs, hinting at a potential breakdown below $66.
---
🔻 Disruption Path:
1. Drop to $66.00 - immediate pullback from failed breakout.
USOIL BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 66.89
Target Level: 61.90
Stop Loss: 70.21
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 8h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Sudden Oil Spike - what you need to know!Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, amid a surprise build in US crude inventories.
Iran’s move added a modest risk premium to prices, though analysts noted that no actual supply disruptions have occurred.
$66 is a key level for WTI crude to hold above.
If it can maintain this area, we will likely see higher price. $66 is a multi year trendline of support going back to 2021.
Energy stocks / XLE basket is showing some bullish divergence, perhaps indicating this oil move has legs.
KOG - OILQuick look at Oil. There is a pivot here in the golden zone around the 70.5 level which we can dip into. Above that level, we would be looking for higher oil with the potential target level on the chart. Note, oil is due a huge pull back, so rejection from one of these resistance levels can give us that pull back in order to get better pricing to long.
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USOIL:Today's Trading Strategy
Oil prices have signs of upward breakthrough at present, yesterday's trend broke the short - term narrow range of shock range, on the idea of retracting to do more. The more appropriate long point is 66-66.3, if short, the more appropriate point is 67-67.4, but the short position is recommended not to be too heavy, not to do less than the point.
Trading Strategy:
SELL@67-67.4
TP: 66-66.3
BUY@66-66.3
TP: 67.5-68
More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗
Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
WTI OIL Might be close to the end of correction or finished it.there are definetly more than 1 posibilities in this one, 1 more down wave can occur and that is why i have a invalidation level. long term definetly buy but short and mid term is just not very clear, i am thinking it s time to buy. what i am going to do is keep track of it a bit more in short term and if it gives me good buying opportunity near the below i will enter the trade with a stop loss. and if it upbrakes possible impulse wave will occur and i will buy again to mid term target. so for now keep an eye on it and buy if the opportunity arise.
Classic Bear Flag on Oil 🚩 Classic Bear Flag on Oil 🛢
A textbook bear flag has formed on the oil chart:
📏 Flagpole: From $77 down to $64 – a move of 13 points
📉 If price breaks below the lower support of the flag:
🎯 Target = $64 − $13 = $51
⚠️ This sets a bearish target at $51,
assuming momentum continues and there's no invalidation.
usoil 67
sl 67.5
tp1 66
tp2 65.5
tp3 65
tp4 64.5
tp5 open
USOIL Will Fall! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 65.603.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 59.910 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Bullish Setup Forms as Institutions Accumulate CrudeCrude Oil is consolidating above support at $65.18, with momentum indicators turning bullish. The Stochastic is rising from 27, and RSI is approaching the 50.0 mark. Institutional buying reported in the latest COT data reinforces the bullish bias.
A move above $67.55 could open the door to $69.45, while the bullish outlook stays intact as long as the price remains above $61.80.
USOILThe first higher high after a downtrend indicates a potential trend reversal to the upside. It shows that buyers are starting to regain control, signaling the possibility of a new bullish trend.
Trendline Break: A break above a significant trendline further confirms the shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. The trendline break signifies that selling pressure has weakened, and the market is poised for further upward movement.
Retest of Trendline: After breaking the trendline, the price often retests the broken trendline, which now acts as support. This retest offers a low-risk buying opportunity as it confirms the strength of the new uptrend.
WTI on high time frame
"Hello traders, focusing on WTI crude oil, the price surged to $78 but sharply retreated to the $65 zone. Over the last five days, the price has consolidated. I believe that the signals from the recent 4-hour candle suggest a potential move towards higher prices, with the next target possibly being around $72. I will be monitoring the price action around $72 closely for a potential rejection or continuation towards even higher prices."
If you need further assistance or have additional insights to share, feel free to let me know.
Could the Crude Oil reverse from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 66.77
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 61.06
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 72.33
Why we like it:
There a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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WTI BUY OPPORTUNITY!!!Price just offered a buy opportunity as it trades at $65.605 per barrel. I anticipate a bullish price action to develop away from the current market price. The massive pullback that occurred from the daily timeframe is completed and it’s due for a buy.
Take advantage of this opportunity now!
Oil (WTI) – Preparing for Potential Fresh VolatilityThe price of Oil (WTI) fell dramatically last week, from a high of 78.88 on Monday June 23rd to a low of 65.21 on Tuesday June 24th, as a ceasefire was first agreed and then held between Israel and Iran. This shifted the focus for traders back to US trade talks and looming tariffs, the direction of US economic growth and the potential for another OPEC+ production increase. Although, it must be said that nervousness about the sustainability of the ceasefire is still drawing the focus of traders this week and may continue to do so.
In terms of trade, Oil prices jumped higher yesterday as a trade deal between the US and Vietnam was announced, but the question remains, could this rally be short lived?
President Trump stated on Tuesday that he doesn’t expect to delay his July 9th tariff deadline, which could see higher import penalties reimposed on key trading partners, such as Japan and the EU. While it seems that traders may still be unsure whether he really means this, any potential impact on Oil prices could increase the closer we move to the deadline.
Today’s data releases could provide some key insights into the health of the US economy, with Non-farm payrolls released at 1330 BST and the US ISM Services PMI due at 1500 BST. Traders expect jobs growth to continue to moderate, so any bigger downside surprises could increase Oil price volatility, and the direction of service activity (bars, restaurants etc), the main driver of US growth for many months, may also be crucial for sentiment. Traders may be watching for whether there has been any major deterioration in this services PMI reading, back towards, or below 50, which is the dividing line between economic contraction and expansion.
Then, Sunday’s (July 6th) OPEC+ meeting, where the group is expected to agree to an August supply increase for a fourth month in a row, moves into focus. Depending on this OPEC+ decision and any tariff or geo-political developments over the weekend, Oil prices could potentially open up at very different levels on Monday morning.
Technical Update: Breaking Higher From Range?
Following the aggressive sell-off in the price of Oil from the 78.88 June 22nd high into the 65.21 June 24th low, a period of stability materialised as traders assessed the developing geo-political backdrop.
This saw price activity held by support offered by the 65.21 price low and resistance by the 67.54 June 26th high. However, as the 4 hourly chart above shows, the latest activity has now seen prices move out of this range, with a closing break above the previous 67.54 high.
While a break higher from such a sideways range in price is not a guarantee of continued upside, traders may now be viewing this type of activity as reflecting potential for a more extended phase of price strength.
Next Possible Resistance Levels.
If further price strength is to emerge, it might now suggest possibilities to test the 70.48 level, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June 22nd to June 24th decline.
Closing breaks above this resistance may then lead to further attempts at price strength towards 72.08, which is the higher 50% retracement level.
Next Possible Support Levels
While some traders might view a move back into the old sideways price range, which would be represented by closes back under the 67.54 recent high, as marking the possibility of increasing downside pressure again, it might in fact be breaks under the 66.98 level, which is equal to half latest strength, that indicates the potential of further price declines.
Such downside closing breaks may well suggest potential to retest the 65.21 June 24th low trade, possibly further if this in turn gives way.
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WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 67.15 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 70.90 which is a level that sits above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 62.51 which is a swing-low support.
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WTI Crude oversold rally support at 6400WTI crude oil is trading just above a two-week low of 6400, as demand concerns continue to weigh on prices.
The pressure comes from uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policy, which could worsen when the current 90-day pause ends on July 9. So far, only a minor trade deal with the UK has been reached, adding to fears of a global slowdown and weaker oil demand.
Earlier this week, oil prices also dropped after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing fears about disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route.
On the positive side, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are rising. If Trump replaces Fed Chair Jerome Powell with someone more supportive of rate cuts, it could help lift oil prices slightly by boosting the economic outlook.
Overall, oil remains under pressure with limited upside unless demand outlook improves or further supportive policy measures emerge.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6925
Resistance Level 2: 7080
Resistance Level 3: 7230
Support Level 1: 6460
Support Level 2: 6300
Support Level 3: 6100
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Oil volatility expected to remain on Middle East tensions.Fundamental
Oil prices remain under pressure. Volatility is expected to remain elevated as traders digest inventory data, watch for geopolitical shifts, and anticipate the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6, where supply policy could change.
Technical
Technical indicators remain strongly bearish with RSI favouring further downside below pivot level 65.53 toward support levels at 63.76 and 60.00. A break above 65.53 sees a move towards resistance levels at 66.50 and 69.00 subsequently
WTI OIL Progressively bearish on the long-term. Eyes $52.50.A week has passed since our sell signal on WTI Oil (USOIL) and the emerging geopolitical stability has already helped the price move much faster towards our $58.20 Target (see chart in related ideas below).
If we look at it from an even longer term perspective, the 1W time-frame in particular, we can see draw some very useful conclusions about the bearish case. First of all that this week's High got rejected exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the trend-line that made the last 3 major rejections on the market (January 13 2025, October 07 2024).
As you can see, that was a textbook Double Top formation. The last Double Top rejection took place on June 06 2022, the previous multi-year Top for the market. The result was a continued sell-off that didn't stop before testing the 1W MA200, which is now the Resistance.
As a result, even though our $58.20 Target stands, on the longer term we can even see a -37.36% decline towards the end of the year. Contact with the bottom of the Channel Down can be made at $52.50.
Alternatively, you can look at the 1W RSI, which has a clear Sell and clear Buy Zone. This week it was rejected on the Sell Zone, so you may look to book your profit as soon as it enters the Buy Zone.
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WTI looks to end bearish run after bullish inventories dataWe have had some more bullish oil news from the weekly US inventories report. It remains to be seen whether the news is enough to lift the oil price.
Following the API data overnight we had even more bullish-looking official inventories report from the US Department of Energy.
The fact that crude stocks fell for the 5th straight week certainly points to strong demand, pushing stockpiles to their lowest levels since January.
As well as the big headline draw, stocks of crude products fell sharply too. The 2 million barrel draw in gasoline inventories was much higher than the API report, and suggests the driving season is well and truly at full steam, when demand for gasoline tends to rise.
In case you missed it, the DoE reported the following numbers:
• Crude -5.84mm
• Cushing -464k
• Gasoline -2.08mm
• Distillates -4.07mm
Whether or not oil can now stage a meaningful rebound remains to be seen. It has certainly lost its entire risk premium associated with the Iran-Israel conflict. Perhaps it is up to the OPEC+ now to decide with the alliance due to hold discussions on July 6 to consider a further supply boost in August. Any hints of a slower supply boost could provide support to prices.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com