USOIL Bearish Setup: Reversal from Supply ZoneUSOIL is at a significant supply zone, marked by historical price rejections and strong selling pressure in the past. This zone has previously acted as a turning point, where sellers regained control, driving prices lower.
The recent bullish rally has pushed the price into this critical resistance area. However, given the strength of this supply zone and the overextended bullish move, there is a high probability of a bearish reversal if price action confirms rejection (e.g., bearish engulfing candles or long upper wicks signaling selling pressure).
I anticipate a bearish move toward the 75.50 level, which represents a logical target for this setup.This setup aligns with the expectation of a potential correction within the broader market context.
If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
OIL_CRUDE trade ideas
USOIL Short Setup: Key Zone to WatchUSOIL is testing a significant resistance zone around the 78.00 level, an area where price previously faced strong selling pressure. Current price action suggests potential exhaustion, with signs of rejection visible.
If sellers take control, a pullback toward the 76.01 level, acting as the first key support, could be in play. Traders should look for bearish confirmation, such as reversal candlestick patterns or breakdowns below recent lows, to position for a potential short move.
USOIL, DailyUSOIL, daily
Oil prices fell as speculation about Trump relaxing energy restrains on Russia offset concerns of supply disruptions from the sanctions. The new US sanctions could impact nearly 1 million barrels per day of oil from Russia, but Trump's potential action may determine the duration of recent price gains. Also an easing of tensions in the Middle East where Hamas and Israel exchanged hostages on Sunday kept oil prices for further progressing as well as the potential impact of a cold snap of the weather in Texas and New Mexico could affect oil production which is an additional factor influencing the oil market.
On the technical side, the price had a rather aggressive bullish boost in the past couple of weeks and has recently corrected to the downside after finding sufficient resistance on the upper band of the Bollinger bands. The level of the 61.8% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement is what is supporting the price at the time of this report being written however the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 100-day possibly pointing at the retest of the the latest high around $79 or even $80. On the other hand, the Stochastic oscillator is already in extremely overbought levels hinting that the $80 mark might not be strong enough to hold the price that high and could potentially test again the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement level in the medium-term outlook.
USOIL - Fib LevelThe US oil rallied in previous week and reached its resistance level of 80$ now the price is retracing to its fib levels. A key level is its 0.5- & 0.618 level which is also supported by trendline. If these level are able to sutain then entry can be taken.
Cautious approachmust be taken as it bearish divergence is in play and drop the price more low.
Bullish momentum to extend?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 78.09
1st Support: 76.04
1st Resistance: 80.79
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USOIL POSSIBLE SELL?The market is currently testing the current Weekly area. Based on Daily TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern which could lead to a possible reversal.
We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
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USOIL H1 | Potential Bearish BreakoutBased on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 77.058, which is a pullback resistance. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bearish setup.
Our take profit is set at 75.240, a pullback support level, marking a logical target for the trade.
The stop loss is set at 79.010, above the recent swing high, providing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bearish bias.
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Oil Heading LowerWe are in the latter stages of a running impulse move-up. However, the move has run into a corrective phase on which I do see it sliding lower to at least 77.35. At this level, I find a cluster of resistance factors that work great to set as a minimum target, which includes 100 equality in depth between waves A and C, as well as having just underneath an unfilled gap, which we might be seeing the price target to fill finally.
The most recent price action looks to be contracting in what I suspect is a triangle formation. After enough accumulation has happened I expect to see the break below occur. That is why I've set the entry price right below the second wave of the triangle. Stop is set a few points from the top of the pattern.
Thread carefully since I do expect this move to end violently and swiftly, and turn around right afterward to thrust upward once more. It might even be best for some to stay on the sidelines for this drop and wait for the entry to come on the next big move up.
Happy Trading :)
USOIL - Expect retracement !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USOIL.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a long. After price filled the imbalance we can see price to start the retracement, I expect continuation till level 74.00 where we have huge imbalance.
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JAN 19TH 2025 ANLYSIS /SENTIMENT
🔥 Futures Market Analysis: Friday Recap & Monday Domination Plan 🔥
Friday Recap (January 19, 2025): Crushing the Week 💪
Friday’s futures market wrapped up with some serious moves and setups for next week:
1. 📈 Equity Futures:
• S&P 500 E-mini climbed steadily, flirting with key resistance at 4,500. Bulls stayed in control, setting up for what could be a breakout week.
• Nasdaq Futures stole the spotlight 🚀, smashing through resistance as tech stocks carried the load. If you’re not watching this, what are you even doing?
• Dow Jones Futures cooled off as industrials and energy weighed down the index. Time to let the big dogs rest.
2. 🛢️ Commodities:
• Crude Oil Futures tapped the brakes (-1.3%) after a red-hot rally earlier in the week. The sell-off screams profit-taking, not panic. Watch for a bounce next week.
• Gold Futures hit a six-month high 💰—safe-haven buyers are loving inflation fears and global tension. It’s shiny for a reason.
3. 📉 Treasury Yields & Volatility:
• Bond futures relaxed, with yields dipping as traders priced in Fed softness.
• The VIX dropped as if it knew Monday would be quiet. But don’t let the low volatility fool you—big moves are brewing.
💥 Monday Outlook: Dominate the Holiday Gap 💥
With markets closed Monday (MLK Day), here’s how to stay ahead of the game:
1. Sunday Night Action (Overnight Session):
• Expect light trading volumes—perfect for quick volatility spikes.
• 🔑 Focus Areas:
• News from Asia & Europe could dictate overnight direction.
• Crypto futures (Bitcoin 🚀, anyone?) may provide early clues for risk appetite.
2. Tuesday Gap Risk:
• Big Gaps Ahead? With no trading Monday, markets could open Tuesday with serious energy. Gaps up or down will depend on weekend news—don’t sleep on this!
• Levels to Watch:
• S&P 500 E-mini: 🚧 Resistance at 4,500, support at 4,420.
• Nasdaq Futures: Ready to rumble between 15,800 (resistance) and 15,300 (support).
📅 What’s Coming Next Week?
💡 Tuesday: Flash PMI data could shake things up.
🔥 Thursday: Initial jobless claims—are we still #winning in the labor market?
💣 Friday: Core PCE inflation (aka: what the Fed really cares about). This will be the week’s mic drop.
Your Game Plan: From Crushing It to Kicking Ass 🔥
1. 🚨 Be Ready for Whipsaws: Low volume means traps are everywhere. Stay sharp, and don’t let the algos outsmart you.
2. 📊 Monitor Key Indicators:
• VIX: A spike = risk-off.
• Crude Oil: If it starts bouncing, it could set the tone for energy stocks.
3. 💪 Scenario Mindset for Tuesday:
• Bullish Setup: Earnings and macro optimism light the fuse.
• Bearish Setup: Bad news (or no news) throws cold water on the rally.
You’re not here to play nice. You’re here to dominate. So bring the heat Tuesday and make sure your strategy is locked and loaded. Let’s kick ass and take names this week. 💥
Let me know if you want me to tweak the energy or tone!
USOIL SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
USOIL uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 72.06 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the USOIL pair.
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WTI Crude continues with bearish tilt until Trendline is brokenBLACKBULL:WTI Crude has reached the top of the long-term triangular structure. Momentum benefits the upside but the long-term liquidity trendline is more important.
Optimism (as per Sentimentrader data) shows a potential optimism.
I will wait for the breakdown of near support to enter short