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DJIAM2025 trade ideas

Don't get fooled by the counter trend rally, Bearish to 27,500Don't be suckered into this bear market rally. Price is still bearish and will continue to be so until the 2018 Open price has been hit of 27,500. A clue the market has shown is the bodies of the last three days are suspended above a key level. This is a sign that price will return. When prices find a low at a key level, the bodies are AT the level. Case in point, bodies of the candles are AT the key level, not suspended above it. This is ALWAYS the case for a major low in the market.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
7
How to Identify Double Top Formation - A Long-Haul Bear?How to identify double top formation? Is the US market still forming this double top formation, or has the pattern already completed, signaling a deeper correction to come? In this discussion, we will focus on the latter question: whether this bear is going to be a long-haul bear. 3 parts of today tutorial: 1. How to Identify Double Top Formation is completed technically? 2. How to cross reference to its related markets? 3. How do the fundamental developments confirm these technical studies? E-mini Dow Jones Index Futures & Options Ticker: YM Minimum fluctuation: 1.00 index point = $5.00 Micro E-mini Dow Jones Index Futures Ticker: MYM Minimum fluctuation: 1.0 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by konhow
Dow Jones 32% Correction Bearish Bias UpdatedI have been proved wrong about being bullish lately. I took a couple L's and had to step back. Using the monthly chart, I have marked in blue lines every year's open. I can see a clear support area at the 2020 yearly open. This will take out the lows of both 2022 and 2023 low. I will be ignoring any bullish bars in anticipation of them getting eliminated. Yes, the long-term trend is indeed bullish, and this 32% correction will be a counter trend to the current bull trend. The 2020 open is EXACTLY 50% of the high/low Market declines in %: Bearish Setups to employ: Moral of the story? Don't pay attention to bullish bars as they will soon be wiped away.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
1
Markets Goal is 2018 Yearly Open and Covid Peak Formation Low The market's goal is to return to the Covid peak formation low, the 2018 yearly open and the middle of the 2018 range. Along the way, all the lows will be taken to achieve this goal. Middle of Range: COVID Peak Formation Low: Returning to 2018 Open: It is very clear to me now that this is the gameplan. I will remain a bear until the 2018 Yearly Open price of 27,500. This is a 40% retracement. My only concern is I don't know HOW price will arrive there and when. That is the challenging aspect of it. I AM 100% confident that 27,500 is the goal. Looking at April 7th's lows, these are so very obvious that these will get dunked on and eliminated soon.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Party's OverDow Futures daily forming a downwards channel with price targets potentially down to 34k and 31k. These drops would be about 20-40% which is considered a true market crash. The falling wedge pattern plays out until potentially June of 2027, but wedges from the top of the range are dangerous as they can turn into bull traps. - Economic fundamentals have been disconnected from the financial system for some time but as the underlying economy begins to falter (ex. unemployment wave) markets begin to price in data such as falling retail sales. - President Trump is going through with mass layoffs in the Federal Government which creates unemployment as the private sector has been going through layoffs and has halted actual new hiring since 2023. - As more traders have become accustomed to "bad news is good news," they will most likely be wiped out trying to buy dips or chase false breakouts doing what they have always done. - Tariffs regionalize trade which make global economies and supply chains less interconnected. A global economy that is also very levered up on USD denominated debt needs dollar liquidity to continue to function. By regionalizing trade that liquidity is starved which can lead to financial problems on a global scale if not handled carefully. - Markets are likely to price in these risks over the next 2-3 months leading asset prices and interest rates lower. Expect individual companies to do well at times but then rotate to others while the Dow index itself falls. - Even if the Dow were to play out the wedge during 2026, without significant improvements to the global financial system expect that move to be a bull trap or a best lead to minimal gains without a new wave of monetary inflation.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by CrashoutCapital
1
Strategic Short Opportunity for Dow Jones Amid Volatility - Key Insights: Given the recent market volatility, the Dow Jones appears poised for short-term declines. The escalation of global economic uncertainties, particularly surrounding tariffs and bond yields, suggests a challenging environment for the index. With the Dow Jones down by 7.9%, it mirrors broader market pressures, making a strategic short position potentially advantageous for the coming week. - Price Targets: - Next week targets (T1, T2): 35,500, 34,800 - Stop levels (S1, S2): 39,000, 40,500 - Recent Performance: The Dow Jones experienced a significant downturn of approximately 7.9% recently, reflecting widespread market pressures. This decline aligns with similar movements in the NASDAQ and S&P 500, which fell by 10% and 9.1%, respectively. The heightened volatility has been a notable characteristic of the financial markets, with investor concern evident. - Expert Analysis: Analysts are expressing caution regarding a prolonged bearish trend for the Dow Jones. Despite some discussions about short-term bullish setups, the overarching sentiment highlights prudence due to external stressors. Factors such as tariff concerns and global economic uncertainties are central to this cautious outlook, further exacerbated by the Volatility Index (VIX) reaching levels not seen since April 2020, highlighting market anxiety. - News Impact: Recent market turbulence stems from various factors including tariff announcements and global economic slowdowns. Particularly impactful is the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipping below 4%, signaling a move towards safer assets amidst uncertainty. Additionally, the drop in crude oil prices into the lower 60s aligns with broader economic concerns, projecting potential impacts on global growth. These elements combined with elevated volatility signify a cautious investor sentiment and a market under stress.
OSE:DJIA1!Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Dow Jones Limit Buy Entry Trigger 42,027I am placing a limit order for a long position at 42,027 in the anticipation of a pullback to support. My stop is 150 ticks ( based on the 115 tick ATR ) and my target is 2.5 risk to reward or 375 ticks. Will I know if this support level will hold? No, and I don't need to. To me, this is a great location, and I am willing to put risk on to find out. I am bullish the next three months and so, will mainly look for buy setups when they present. This trade, I am buying the level and not waiting for confirmation. If you take the same trade, manage your risk as any trade can fail.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
4
Elliott Wave: Dow Futures (YM) Poised to Continue Its RallyThe short-term Elliott Wave perspective for Dow Futures (YM) indicates that the wave IV pullback concluded at 40725, as illustrated in the 1-hour chart below. The Index has begun to climb in wave V. However, it must still surpass the prior peak of 45227, set on January 31, 2025, to eliminate the possibility of a double correction downward. The rally from the wave IV low has so far unfolded in three swings. For greater confidence in continued upward momentum, it’s advisable to wait until a five-swing pattern emerges. The rally from wave IV is expected to develop as a five-swing diagonal Elliott Wave structure. From the wave IV low, wave ((i)) peaked at 41905, followed by a wave ((ii)) pullback that bottomed at 41587. Wave ((iii)) then advanced to 42388, with the subsequent wave ((iv)) pullback concluding at 41769. The final leg, wave ((v)), reached 42544, marking the completion of wave 1 on a larger degree. The ensuing wave 2 correction then found its low at 41751. From that point, the wave 3 rally reached its peak at 43148, followed by a wave 4 pullback that bottomed at 42459. In the near term, as long as the pivotal low at 40725 holds, anticipate that any pullback will attract buyers within a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern, paving the way for further upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
YM / Dow Jones - long term perspectiveOn the CBOT_MINI:YM1! weekly/monthly/quarterly chart, nothing is looking out of the ordinary as of right now. No matter what timeframe you're looking at, all timeframes have to go through cycles of rise and fall, and this current panic is just a normal red candle on the quarterly/monthly charts. After this monthly/quarterly pullback, I'm still expecting a push higher to reach at least 48k before any longer term weakness should set in, if at all. I see $34k-$38k as a mid-term discount zone, with 42-48k as a mid-term premium zone, with 48k as a magnet of sorts for price to draw toward. I have 2 scenarios I'm currently watching for: MID-TERM PULLBACK: Bull market stays intact, Trump ISN'T actually Hitler :-), price sweeps under $38k and sets up bounce back toward 48k from there. LONG-TERM PULLBACK: World falls apart, Trump IS actually Hitler :-), bear market commences, multiple quarterly red candles, price does a deep pullback to $27.5k before rebounding from there. SCENARIO 1 (seems most likely): SCENARIO 2 (seems very unlikely): Mostly, I would just counsel people to have a plan. "If bull market stays intact, do XYZ. If bear market develops, do ABC."
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by easycators
1
Flow State StrategyPrice behaves like a single organism that moves in cyclical, parabolic patterns: from Higher Highs (HH) to Higher Lows (HL) to Higher Highs again, and from Lower Highs (LH) to Lower Lows (LL) to Lower Highs. Each Higher Low creates new buy orders that are fulfilled, leading to the formation of a new High. Likewise, each Lower High creates resting sell orders that are executed, resulting in a new Low. Once you understand, monitor, and act upon this principle, along with your chosen strategy, you can truly flow with the market's movements rather than against them.
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!
by jamellramsay
Bearish Outlook on Dow Jones Amid Corrective Phase- Key Insights: The Dow Jones is currently under bearish pressure with institutional selling prevalent across major indices. The corrective phase is expected to continue, potentially pushing the Dow towards support levels between 39,800 and 39,700. Investors should prepare for market volatility fueled by economic factors like upcoming tariffs, which may slow down potential recovery actions. - Price Targets: Short position advised next week. - Targets: T1 = 39,700, T2 = 39,500 - Stops: S1 = 40,500, S2 = 41,000 - Recent Performance: The Dow Jones recently exhibited a downward trend, filling a gap before moving further downwards similar to NASDAQ and S&P 500. This decline suggests a consistent bearish sentiment is affecting the markets. - Expert Analysis: Experts believe the Dow is in a corrective phase with an eventual rally towards new highs expected post-correction. Current sentiment remains bearish due to worries about tariffs and broader economic challenges, but optimism exists for future recovery to levels above 47,000, hitting as high as 51,000 in bull scenarios. - News Impact: Market sentiments are marred by the anticipation of new tariffs set to unveil on April 2nd. These tariffs could introduce significant volatility impacting both equity and cryptocurrency markets, which will be crucial for investors to closely monitor due to potential negative influences on the Dow Jones trajectory in the near term.
OSE:DJIA1!Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
DOW Shorts: Better RRWhile NQ and ES was trending lower DOW was going higher. This was to take out stops, pair smart money orders and start the sell program. I waited for multiple confirmations before entering the trade. Buystops, rejection, CISD and IFVG. I could've entered earlier targeting even higher rr but the more confirmations there are showing bearishness, the higher the probability. This trade is risk free and partials have been taken. The stops will be adjusted accordingly and managed while letting the runner target the PDL. Let's see.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by TradesofThunder