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DJIA1! trade ideas

Week of April 21 - DXY/Oil/DJI/10yrNobody will ring a bell at the top. What a great selloff we had last week! I was expecting a pop higher for the sell but they just wanted to pull the rug on bulls early in the week it seems. Pretty much everything got monkey hammered. Indexes and Oil slid while gold held in (for now). The great news is we now have a directional market to trade again - these are MUCH easier to trade compared to the sideways chop that NDX has experienced for the past 2 months. Last week, we saw pretty hard selling across the board and I think this is just the first warning shot of the coming recession. We have been in the largest and longest bull market in history and it feels like we are nearing a tipping point. This week, I will be focusing on the Dow. I have really enjoyed trading the Dow as it has really clean charts compared to NDX. This comes from the fact that the DJI has the 30 largest USA companies in the index which tend to be rather stable from a price standpoint. The added benefit is that there are no tech stocks getting subjugated to gamma squeezes or mania like NVDA or AI related plays. It's nice to have a boring index that trades clean. Dow - Friday during the Asia session - Israel attacked Iran. This spooked markets and go us into our QUARTERLY downside target for the DJI. In fact, DJI was down YTD during the Asia session until the bounced it higher. But what this means for us, is that I am looking for higher targets from HERE on the DJI in the short run. On the Weekly, I would LOVE to see a bounce back higher to 39k area. This will get us into the premium of the entire swing lower, and would allow us to target that FVG living up there at 39.4k. We swept the LOY on DJI - now we need a backtest. The good news is that dropping down to the h4 charts, we can see that we almost have a Market Structrue Shift (MSS) to bullish. The 200sma on the 4hr chart also aligns with our weekly target area - but we could see a nice 1000 point gain in DJI before we turn lower again DXY - DXY formed a weekly Doji. I am expecting last weeks lows to be swept on DXY before it resumes its uptrend. Crude Oil - OIl got absolutely smashed last week. That being said, I still want to see 88 trade on WTI before we roll over. This looks like it was just a pullback to the 200sma area on the 4hr chart. 10yr Yield - We have been waiting for the 10yr to tag our 4.7% level so we can start loading the boat with bonds. Last Tuesday gave us just that opportunity, From here, I am expecting rates to start to drop and in a big way - this will align with the oncoming recession. Gold - Gold closed the week > 2400 but off its ATH. I still want to see Gold come in on the weekly chart, but we need to crack 2340 for that. I have alerts set for Gold but I am not super intent on watching it at these levels. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see DJI trade higher into the the weekly breaker block around 39k. From there I will be scouting for short entries. Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while. Oil has one last gasp in it and will be supported by DXY heading lower to confirm its breakout - I am looking for $88 to trade on WTI. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024Long
by Baero-Trading
YM Downtrend until Gapfill Before next major rallyI am looking at a repeat of the previous correction back in July 2023. Some key takeaways: Deathcross triggered April 4th Hourly 200sma is now in downtrend mode Currently in a bear flag consolidation to pullback into the declining 200sma Space under the low of the bear flag in relation to the prior pivot low A gap that needs to be filled at the start of the move higher I don't know where the bottom will be at but I do know that the next bull move higher WILL take out the highs and continue on to make even more all time highs as we are still in a bull trend. I forecast Dow Jones to be around 75,000 at 2033.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
2
YM - Big Dougg Leading The PackThe weekly internal liquidity has been made with buyside resting at $38637 and sellside printed at $37463 but the overall week has been rangebound. We can clearly see that there has been a fight at the daily liquidity void with candle bodies rejecting that zone. 38344 Fridays high is my first point of interest with 38410* being target 2. Last week Thursday's price action might be the manipulation that YM needs if we are to continue bullish price action. Intraday highs has already been poached at 38137. Hourly buyside liquidity is where i am aiming for. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024Long
by LegendSince
YM1! - Massive Sell-Off!Due to a delayed upload, my bias is neutral for the duration of the week. Initially, i was looking out for the weekly order block to be attacked, which occured before continuing it's downwards projection to the weekly sellside liquidity @ 37,675. In my last YMM post, i stated that YM could front run the index markets and thats exactly what we saw. But this does not mean it will be the case this time round so it's something to be mindul of. I would like to see this weeks liquidity void respected, with todays candle closing below 38,237 and YM has a good chance of repricing to 37,675. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024
by LegendSince
Three Aspects of a Trade Entry, Risk Management, ExitWelcome to our discussion on the three vital aspects of a trade: Entry, Risk Management, and Exit. Mastering these components is crucial for successful trading. Let's delve into each aspect, understanding their significance and how they contribute to your trading strategy. Entry: The entry point marks the initiation of a trade. While it may seem straightforward, it sets the foundation for your entire trade. When choosing an entry point, consider factors such as market trends, support and resistance levels, and technical indicators. Your entry should align with your trading plan and signal a high probability of profitability. Remember, a well-timed entry can maximize your potential gains and minimize risks. Risk Management: Effective risk management is the cornerstone of trading success. This aspect requires careful consideration and planning. Assess the amount of capital you're willing to risk on each trade and set appropriate stop-loss levels to limit potential losses. Remember, preserving capital is paramount to long-term profitability. Exit: The exit point marks the closure of a trade and realization of profits or losses. While it's often considered the simplest aspect, it's equally critical. Establish clear exit criteria based on your trading strategy, whether it's a predetermined price target, trailing stop, or technical signal. Stick to your exit plan without succumbing to emotional impulses or market noise. A disciplined approach to exiting trades ensures that you capture profits while minimizing potential losses. Importance of Each Aspect: Entry: Sets the stage for the trade and influences its outcome. Risk Management: Protects your capital and ensures longevity in trading. Exit: Determines the realization of profits and mitigation of losses. In summary, prioritize each aspect of the trade process, giving due attention to entry, meticulous risk management, and disciplined exits. By mastering these fundamentals, you'll enhance your trading skills and improve your overall performance in the markets.
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024Education
by CFRN