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DJIA1! trade ideas

Dow Jones Volatility Daytrading AnalysisI am writing this post to organize my thoughts on ATR and Volatility. I have noticed that there are three different phases of Volatility. Low Medium High Using the 1 period ATR on the Daily chart, the high to low movement indicates what kind of Volatility one can expect. Low Volatility is when, on average, the daily high to low is around 300 ticks +/- 300 ticks is just a number. What I am looking for is the percentage. Low Volatility seems to be when the high/low movement of the day is around 0.50%-0.70% of the price of Dow Jones. Example: If Dow Jones is at 85,000, then 0.60% would be 510. Therefore, a low volatility day within this price range would be 510 ticks on average. Because Dow Jones is at on average 44,000 then a low volatility day using 0.60% would be 265 ticks. This is in line with 300 ticks on average. On the 15-minute time frame, using the 14 period ATR, I try to line up the peaks of the ATR values. In this case, it lines up to around 50 ticks. This information is vital in knowing how big stop losses and targets should be. If a low volatility day is around 300 ticks, then does it make sense to go for 300 tick moves? Depending on your risk to reward preferences, you can use ATR in a myriad of ways. I personally use 1.25 times the 15-minute peak ATR as this is my entry time frame. The peaks are on average 50 ticks. This would give me an ATR stop loss of 62.50. I would round it up to 65 ticks. If I was to take this hypothetical trade, I would use the 65 ticks stop and using 2.5 risk to reward, I would use 165 tick targets. If one would like to go for a 1 to 1, then they can use twice the peak ATR of 50 ( 100 ticks ) and go for 100 tick targets. Medium Volatility is around 580-600 ticks on the daily chart, or 1.25% from high to low. On the 15-minute chart, this would be 90 ticks using the peaks of the 14 period ATR. Using 1.25 times the ATR, I would arrive at 115 ticks for stop loss and using 2.5 risk to reward, I would target 290 ticks. This would give the trade room to play out. High Volatility is around 850 ticks and above. On the 15-minute chart, High volatility is 135 ticks. Using my same 1.25 time ATR, the stop loss would be 170 ticks and the target 425 ticks, using 2.5 risk to reward. If I were to take this hypothetical trade, and even having a not-so-great entry, using a 170 tick stop loss would allow me to take some heat on the trade but still stay in. Going for 2.5R, I would target 425 ticks. Taking this other hypothetical trade, one could still be in the trade and achieve the profit goal without getting pinged out by wicks. This allows a trader to not have the pressures of being so pinpoint accurate on their entries and to allow a trade to play out without getting pinged off the trade. We are not brain surgeons and therefore, do not need to be highly accurate and precise. You can be an average trader with good technical skills and still achieve success. Using the ATR indicator is an art form and is not rigid in its application. You have to use judgement calls when reading the numbers. It is not a fool proof indicator and sometimes you will under or overcompensate what number to use. I hope this post was helpful for anybody and feel free to leave comments down below on your thoughts. Thank you.
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
March 2025 Gameplan Another Resting Doji Bar Bearish BiasUsing the monthly chart, I am looking at another bearish month of consolidation. I expect a wick up to February's open in orange and a wick down to January's Low. I then expect a close around 2025's Open at 42,929. I then expect May to be a monstrous month taking out all of this consolidation and continuing the bullish trend. I am looking for price to slow down into the 2025 yearly open. If you look at the monthly candles, February did not take out the high of January. Nor do I expect March to take out the high of February. I DO expect March to take out the Lows of February and January. I am expecting price to go up first, create the wick but not take out February's high, sell down to take out January's low and rally back up to close at 43,000. A bearish Doji
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Dow Jones Bullish Setup for a Friday Dump?We've swept today's lows while also establishing a new high. This sets the stage for a strong buyback toward the 44,000 level, where we previously dumped last Friday. I am eyeing the areas around 43,470 & 43,562 as potential opening structures. With high-impact news closing out both the week and the month, we should see some solid volatility—presenting prime opportunities to capitalize on market moves. Let’s lock in⚡ Its too early to tell, but I am anticipating a crazy dump on Friday that will take us back to 2025 Open price.
CBOT_MINI:MYMH2025Long
by GeneralJWS
1
Dow Jones Bullish Pullback 2/25I'm looking to take a Long position at the 8:30 AM open tomorrow. I've drawn out two key setups that would confirm my bullish outlook above. Ideally, we open within the 43,505 - 43,575 range, setting up a strong buying opportunity. The Daily formed a nice doji candle to close out Monday, so I am really confident that we will see some nice bullish action tomorrow morning. Just throwing ideas out there, I won't really know anything for certain until around 7am. Lets collect these ticks⚡
CBOT_MINI:MYMH2025Long
by GeneralJWS
February Closing In Down Month End of Month ShortI will be watching this last bearish candle and how price pullsback into it. I am looking at the daily chart for a doji day and a rolling over of price action. I am expecting it to be near the end of the month. There is only 5 trading days left of February. Thursday broke out and closed below the last 6 days. I am letting the market set up and waiting. Currently, I am up 5% in February. I feel that this is too little of return for the amount of effort I have put in. I believe I am doing too much. I need to hit one or two monster trades in a month with little stress. Hit the trades that are all day holds that the market has no intentions of coming back. Why would I do anything else in between? Jim Rogers famous quote that really resonated with me, " I wait until there is money lying in the corner and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime " My trade management approach is using a 100 tick stop after entry, no profit target and hold to the close. I take only the one trade in that day. One loss Max per trading day. To have the best trading results, paradoxically, one must not trade. Less is more. I am guilty in this. I struggle with an alpha mindset where upon if I am not taking action, then I am not advancing my goals. Although I am a profitable trader, my results could be ten times by doing less.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-21 : Top Pattern Counter TrendToday's Top pattern in Counter-Trend mode suggests the markets will attempt to move downward, seeking a new support level, then find a base and attempt to roll a bit higher. I don't expect a big breakdown to take place today, but the YM is already struggling to maintain support - so we may see the ES/NQ break downward if the major markets continue to weaken throughout the day. I do expect the markets to move into my Major Bottom pattern over the next 3-5+ trading days. So, overall, I expect the markets to reject these recent highs and attempt to move downward. Gold and Silver should continue to rally with Gold trying to break above $3k and silver trying to break above $35. Bitcoin is moving into an early stage Excess Phase Peak flagging formation. This should prompt a fairly solid rally phase for Bitcoin over the next few days/weeks. If my longer-term research is correct, the recent new highs will be rejected and price will roll into a double-bottom type of setup between now and the end of March 2025. I suspect traders are not prepared for this move and will continue to try to BUY any dip they see over the next 30+ days. My only advice is to play the short-term trends and avoid position or swing trading too heavily. The markets are going to become very volatile over the next 30+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by BradMatheny
4
Anticipating a Down Doji Year 2025 Closing Near 42,000I am anticipating a down doji year of 2025 with the high being put in place now. I am expecting a deep pullback to 40,000, followed by a sharp rally back up to the 2025 open of 43,000 and a slow, retracement to close the year at 42,000. This will give the year a -2.5% return this year. 2026 I am expecting a massive bullish year after this doji year. I am expecting price to open at 42,000 and rip to 48,000-50,000. Price needs to consolidate, rest and build up strength for the next major rip. 2025, I believe, is not it. One of the biggest clues for me is the post-election exhaustion candle right into the highs and the fact is has little to no follow through. It is THE BIGGEST bar since 2023. 40,000 just happens to be 50% of this move higher Using the Daily ATR Volatility, you can see volatility has been increasing in the current up channel. Yes, this is a lagging indicator but when it gets back up to the 780 mark, the low will be nearly in place. Let us see if this lines up with the start of 2026 Overall, this is my gameplan for the next two years and I am holding firm until it is invalidated on me. In summary, Selling off of 45,000 to dump down to 40,000 in a range consolidation year. Choppy and Whippy. 2025 a doji year. 2026 opens strong and rips to 48,000-50,000
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
1
Breakdown Of My Personal Strategy On Dow Jones TutorialI will be giving a breakdown on my own personal strategy on how I trade the Dow Jones Futures. I am writing this post for two reasons. First and foremost, to help people. Secondly, to help myself in better understanding. The way that I trade is using support and resistance, only I don't use the traditional sense of support and resistance that is taught. I use price levels that all traders have. The four price points of a candle stick. I also use major round numbers of 1000's and 500's. The Open The Low The High The Close I start by looking at the monthly. When a new month opens, I.E. February 1st for example, I mark the opening price in Orange. I use the 2 hour chart to look for buying and selling areas, using key price levels. I look for these key price areas and see how price behaves once they get there. Low of Month trades Low of the Week trades Low of the Day trades High of Month trades High of the Week trades High of the Day trades Example 1: The month of February opens at 44,444. I mark this with a horizontal trendline in Orange Level 4. I see price gapping down right into 44,000. A major round number of 1000. I then drill down to my entry timeframe of the 15 minute to find the buy or sell trigger entry. In this case, I saw the creeping push down into the 1000 level followed by a bull 180 bar. I entered in on the close of that bar. I used a 75 tick stop per ATR and a 200 tick target. This is an actual trade I took. I recently changed my target strategy. I will explain in a bit. I use the same concept for the following three timeframes. The Monthly candle The Weekly candle The Daily candle The Monthly candle: The Weekly candle: The Daily candle: Another example of a trade I took This creeping layering into a level is one of my favorite ways to get into a trade. What I am doing now is I will set my stop loss of 75 ticks and I will have no profit target. I will hold the trade until the end of the trading day and close it out before the market closes. On this particular trade, I closed it out at 44,820 for a 343 tick profit. The weekly template structure: Some obvious points but worth repeating. Each Weekly candle has an opening price. Within each weekly candle, there are 5 trading days. Monday-Friday. There is a high and low of the week. Within each trading day, there is also an open, high and a low. I find that when day trading, only to focus on the specific day itself and to not really worry about "multiple time frame analysis" All you need is the major key levels I laid out up above. Here is another trade that I took. I was looking for the Monthly open and 44,500 to be used as resistance for a continuation short trade back through the weekly open. Of course you can see, I lost on this trade. No strategy is ever guaranteed, and I do routinely take losses. My job as a trader is to preserve my capital and to stay alive. My money management strategy: One trade per trading day MAX If lose, DONE Close out near end of day if in profits, DONE 75 tick stoploss on ALL day trades. DO NOT TOUCH. Do not move up or down. Sometimes to Break-even but only if trade is seeming to fail (more of an intuition thing) Risk 0.75%-1.5% per trade Only make slight adjustments to strategy after every 20-trade sample size. By limiting my losses to only one trade per day, I can easily recover from a losing day with any winning day. Somedays I will either not see the market well, enter at a poor location or just overall, not be at my best. My statistics show that RARELY do I enter another trade after a losing trade, does that one succeed. This tells me that I am not seeing something that particular day. I will wrap it up and try again another day. Revenge trading does no good but to hurt yourself. I admit I am wrong on the day and come back again. By limiting myself to one trade per day, I am also cutting down on slippage and commissions. Because of slippage and commissions, trading is NOT a zero-sum game, but in fact a NEGATIVE sum game. Your winners are smaller than they ought to be, and your losses are bigger than ought. I know that I can have three losing days in a row and be right back to normal after one or two winning days. Therefore, who cares if I take a loss. I need to get through the losing trades to find the big, winning trades.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
8
Dow Jones (March Contract) - I Am Sceptical About All-Time HighsUnlike Nasdaq and S&P 500 where their PD arrays was discounted, Dow Jones is showing a different story. 45000 is a stanch psychological resistance level for a number of reasons. For one, a weekly liquidity void in the past aligns with a prior daily SIBI (which price redelivered into and rebalanced 100% of the range) and another gap in the form of a volume imbalance created last week Thursday 6th going into Friday 7th which Dow has rejected this Friday. Very tight range Dow is working in at the moment and I don’t have the confidence yet to predict Dow jones reaching up into the all-time highs territory yet. There is still a lot more resistance levels to break through compared to ES or NQ. Going into next week, I want to see 45000 cleared. Ideally, I want to see a candle body closure above 45227. Dow Jones is last in the race to attack ATH.
CBOT_MINI:YMH2025
by LegendSince