YM1-US30 ShortFollowing up on my analysis we had a good short starting at 40,835 price.
this move gave us a total of 370 ticks in profit. Im expecting price to drop a bit more but we might see some correction higher to take out buy side liquidity
DJIA1! trade ideas
Market Seems To Be Copying April CPI Setup?Looking back at April CPI, today is doing exactly what it did April 9th before the CPI. The exact same pattern.
Friday, a sell off day
Monday, all day of rise
Tuesday, a sell off followed by a rally back up
CPI, a slow pullback into the previous day's highs, followed by a dump taking out Monday's low
YM -Dow Jones going short to grab more liquidity Today we came into an orderblock on the 5m and bounce of it with good downwards pressure and we did not break through buy side liquidity, london session will either take price lower for sell side liquidity or we could see it go down a bit and go higher to take out buy side liquidity.
Rising Wedge 2025 Topping Process (34% Sell Off) 43,000I am bullish on this CPI and FOMC up to the 43,000 area as the top is not in place yet.
How I came to this conclusion:
First, take the high and low of Oct low 22' and Jan High 22', mark the 0.5 range expansion.
Second, the Oct 23' low bounced off the golden pocket of above range.
Third, take the "projected" high of 25' and the low of Jan 22' high breakout point and project range expansions of 1 and 2 times down.
Fourth, take the 2020 covid low and the 2025 high of 43,500 and mark the golden pocket (0.5 and 0.66)
Fifth, Mark the consolidation inside of above golden pocket AND mark the midpoint, notice the 2 times range expansion from the upcoming sell off lands EXACTLY at this price.
Finally, the VIX analysis. The tops in markets are marked as pullbacks and bottoms in the VIX. It is opposite.
Notice the huge spike followed by a pullback
Dow Jones Bearish Alert: Rising Wedge Since COVIDSince COVID, a rising wedge has been forming, signaling potential weakness ahead. Be prepared for a possible pullback. Keep a close watch on key support levels and plan your moves accordingly!"
Dow Jones US30 Buy Level I am sharing Buy Lebel of Dow Jones as per Goldbach on daily time frame
expecting ejection from 0.11 level as per gold Bach says this is rejection area further this move can go up to EQ level and 1.111 ext level
Good Luck
Weekly Engulfing. Bear Trend Structure. Sell High Setups 75/220+Lower Highs and Lower Lows
Look for Sell Highs
75 tick stops
220 tick targets +
Minimum 3:1
Possible next sell high and lower high is the bottom of Tuesday's Low of 40,850
Friday NFP closed at extreme lows and formed the lower low.
Dow Futures (YM) room to 42kBreak of ATH into month end has set up a somewhat easy push to new highs at 42,375 fib extension level into the first week of the month. Markets as a whole ended the month strong and look juiced to try for new highs despite election polls/odds
Intraday Elliott Wave Expects Further Correction in Dow Futures Short Term Elliott Wave in Dow Futures (YM) suggests that pullback to 38532 low on 8.5.2024 ended wave ((4)). The Index then turned higher and made a new all-time high in wave ((5)) as an impulse. Up from wave ((4)), wave 1 ended at 39619 and wave 2 pullback ended at 38689. The Index then extended higher in a nesting impulse with wave ((i)) ended at 39770 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 39344. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 41085 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 40684. Last leg wave ((v)) ended at 41523 which completed wave 3. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 40920 and wave 5 higher ended at 41682. This completed wave (1) of ((5)).
Index is now correcting cycle from 8.5.2024 low in wave (2) of ((5)). Down from wave (1), wave ((i)) ended at 41231 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 41674. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 40854 and wave ((iv)) ended at 41260. Expect wave ((v)) of A to end soon, then it should rally in wave B to correct cycle from 8.30.2024 high before it turns lower again in wave C of (2). Near term, as far as pivot at 38532 low stays intact, expect pullback to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Technique Using ATR For Intraday Stop PlacementOver the past month, I have been getting stopped out left and right using the same 50 tick stops I was using in June and July. After 4 weeks of getting beat up, I just realized that it was because my stop losses have been way too small. I was always wondering why I would get stopped out by a few ticks and then the market would go in my favor, without me. I was not taking in account volatility. The 50 tick stops are not cutting it anymore and I need to upper it to 70.
I have come up with my own way of using ATR to find my best stop size when intraday trading on the 15-minute chart.
I mark the clusters of the peaks with a top/bottom and 50% line. Just like RSI's zero line, the 50% line is the stop I need to use. In this case, I need to be using 70 tick stops. My targets are always 2.5 times my stops. In this case 70 x 2.5= 175
I hope this can help anyone; I need to increase my stop sizes to avoid getting stopped out needlessly.
OHLC Statistical Mapping + Average Range Levels-Manipulation from OHLC Statistical Mapping was my entry
SL was above 1/3AWR- and I targeted AWR-
Simple model
Dow Jones Still In Uptrend (Higher Low Needs To Hold)If this uptrend is to continue, this higher low that was formed today needs to hold.
I don't believe a top is in yet, not until 42,000 area. I believe NFP will be bullish.
Fractal Consolidations ShortThis short position was based on -RDRB PD ARRAY from ICT, and my SL was above multiple HRLR and I simply targeted LRLR :-)
Dow Jones September Gameplan For My Personal Daytrading After a rough August, I will proceed to take it slow. I was a bit aggressive and took a lot of unnecessary losses. I still ended the month +2R using my 3.5 to 1 risk to rewards.
I will use the 4-hour trend structure and support levels to then go to the 15 minute for entry to buy pullbacks into support. The trend at the moment is Bullish and I will keep playing bullish until it reverses. I will not try to pick tops.
My goals for September is to be more patient and selective on my trades. I need to focus on finding the best support levels to buy from. And to cut back on my overtrading. Less is definitely more. It took a while but I eliminated the demon of cutting profits early. I now can hold all winners to my 3.5R targets without issue.
I am sure nobody cares about this post on my own trading, but I post it for me personally. I use it to look back on to judge if I can keep my word on what it is I said I was trying to do.
I wish everyone a fantastic week ahead and to have a prosperous trading week.
Average Range Levels Short SetupEntry: AMR+ & 1/3+
target: 1/3 ADR-
Nearly same setup as yesterday ;)
Average Range Levels Short Setup5ADR & 1/3AWR+ was my reversal level! Price beautifuly reacted there and I simply targeted 1/3ADR+ :)
Dow Jones Futures Possible Sell Short Florida Trade Set UpThe infamous "Florida" Trade is possibly setting up and I will monitor it and possibly enter a limit order just under the open.
The Florida trade is extreme selling and does not get above the open all day.
There is two ways to enter. A limit just under the open and the trend continuation down below.
Every Florida trade closes at the extreme low.
I don't know if this is what is setting up but I am willing to try it. I will monitor it closely in London session to see how price reacts to the blue open price.
I will share a couple of past Florida trades to show you what I am talking about. This is my own personal name and setup for it.
Dow Jones Forming Top Process For Another Leg Down 2024 RangeGoing over VIX, every spike has called the bottoms and every bullish engulfing at the bottoms has called the tops
Because we now have experienced both a bearish engulfing on the Daily chart on Dow in conjunction with a bullish engulfing on VIX, I believe the top is in.
Further evidence is the gap on VIX daily that needs to be filled.
Once VIX spikes and the market starts it's down move, the break of the trendline will mark the bottom for the Long move back up. Estimated September 23rd.
I don't know how far it will go down to. I am looking at 39,150 for the mitigation of the bottom range and the trendline bottom.
Why a Cautious Bull on the US Markets?This is a classic bull market—smooth and trendy. However, it has become a cautious bull, moving within a much wider range, similar to what we observed after March.
Especially in July and August: For the Nasdaq, it was down by 17%, but it has since recovered within a two-month period.
Is this good or bad? It really depends on how we've positioned ourselves. If you're an investor, seeing your July positions slump so much only to recover so quickly could be quite unsettling—it might even give you a heart attack. But if you're a trader, you should find this volatility interesting and take advantage of it.
Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures & Options
Ticker: MYM
Minimum fluctuation:
Outright: 1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Repeating The November Low 2023 Choppy Small Volatility SeasonThe blue bar pattern is the November 2023 chart superimposed on where we are at now in the seasonality cycle.
If this is to play out again, then I will expect a brutal chop coming up when it just grinds higher
Below is the November 2023 chart
This is the chop that I am not looking forward to, I am going to have to be extra cautious
Dow Jones 30 - Dow Jones Has Taken Charge!Comparing ES, NQ and YM, it's obvious that YM is in the lead as Friday's price action managed to trade higher and close out as a higher high for the week with the next point of interest being $41,305; next draw on liquidity.
I would like to see Thursdays high and opening price respected if we are to see a continuation to the upside, targeting macro arrays.
YM - I'd Be Surprised If We Don't Make It To $41,095Much clearer on YM's price delivery compared to ES and NQ.
The rejection block @ $41,095 is a major point of interest as that was the price that supported the sell-off into the abyss; booking lows of 2,500 ticks.
Ultimately, trading using 1 contract would yield you $12,500 in the span of three trading days!
Similar to ES and NQ, i am anticipating a poach above buy stops before sinking into this weeks trading range with the most recent volume imbalance being the logical stop-off point.
