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Nikkei 225 Futures

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NK2251! trade ideas

Nikkei - a further push to 16000On the weekly chart, this pattern looks like distribution. There was allready a divergence with a false breakout, and there is the possibility of another divergence, so on the long term I think the japanesse market is going to fall. Weekly picture here But there's nothing holding this market to go to its multi year highs around 16000. The big resistance was at 15000, which has been the most important level for the last year. Nikkei broke this level, then tested it and rejected it. There's a massive bullish divergence at 14000 which should have the power to push prices higher. MACD histogram is rising, price just bounced of value and the candles look bullish to me. 16000 is probably coming!
NLong
by vlad.adrian
UPDATE : Nikkei vs. YenI'm republishing this chart from 9 months ago. looking at the Nikkei futures now ( 10:42 E.S.T), they are down 2.25 % . The Nikkei briefly broke above its second resistance , but has retrace down since. We can observe the same for the Yen futures ( support held) . What does this mean exactly ? well the correlation between the SP 500 and Nikkei ( using 100 day data) is currently at 92.71 % , highly correlated. So will this affect the market in the morning ? I have no idea ( I dont have a crystal ball), but it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the Nikkei from time to time. Cheers Algo
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by Algokid
At a convergence of resistance, 15,000 key- Having trouble closing above the June 18th high (Where the Fed brought forward their view on when rates would be hiked) - Also running into resistance of the broken uptrend line that supported the rally from June. - 15,000 is a key psychological level that will need a convincing break and close above. - Negative divergence on the MACD also contributing to the recent weakness. - If we move lower into the 13,800/200 range we could see a H&S set up. - In regards to near-term risk events, the Chinese national peoples congress will convene on March 5th where the Chinese leaders will set out their GDP and CPI targets for 2014 alongside new policy measures. - April 1st sees Japan hike their consumption tax rate from 5% to 8%, there have been expectations of front loaded consumer demand before this data, also expectations that the BoJ will add to their QQE program in May to offset the effects of the tax hike. - Looks like NKY will need a catalyst to push it higher and that could be China or the tax hike/BOJ. - Short from now.
NShort
by GetBusy88
Point thats USA QE3 for the Nikkei fall is an errorFor weeks I've been reading that the Nikkei, which has shown an explosive increase in its volatility the last few weeks, is due precisely the fears of U.S. Federal Reserve taping to reduce the bund purchases that are now of 85 billions per month . While it is true that a reduction in bond purchases would tend to shoot upward the bond rates also is true that this will increase the value of the dollar, which would tend to put upward pressure on dollar yen cross and therefore benefit japanese exporters and with it the Japanese stock market. From the fundamental point of view I do not find consistency with the argument, just as it is not consistent from the technical standpoint. Looking at the performance of the Nikkei 225 and compare it with what have done, by one side, the USDJPY, then the Dollar Index and finally in the U.S. Treasury bond, we see that first, the only instrument that maintains a clear correlation with the Nikkei is the USDJPY. However, while these two have been making higher highs since Sinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, began to promote his plan to pull Japan out of its lengthy deflation, the behavior of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds have remained in a range, not a trend. Besides, if we compare the movement of recent stock market fall in the Japanese yen and the dollar index with the previouse rise, we will see that the movement has been terribly stronger for the Japanese market than for the dollar yen and even smaller for the dollar index. The climax comes when we see that at the time of the great fall for the Nikkei which has been accompanied by a fall of the dollar USDJPY (in a half of it's proportion) and the dollar Index, the bond prices in the U.S. have remained virtually lateralized. If there is a change in the market expectations to QE3 be reduced from the Fed (and this was so correlated with what the Asian markets are reacting) don't you think that the prices of these bonds should have all ready plummeted as strongly as the Japanese stocks did?.
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by 7pasos
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