NK225M1! trade ideas
The Nikkei in a downtrendThere is a trend setup here. Since current price is in a downtrend at the moment, I suspect a minor pause and then change in direction where the volume is the heaviest. No additional confirmation is needed.
NIKKEI bounced from support, potential for a further rise!
NIKKEI bounced off 23645.0 where it could potentially rise further to 24540.0.
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Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Finding SupportElliott Wave view on Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests the rally to 24148 on December 17, 2019 ended wave ((1)). Index is now doing a wave ((2)) pullback and the internal is unfolding as double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((2)) pullback should correct the entire rally from August 26, 2019 high before Index resumes higher again later. Structure of the decline from December 17 high looks corrective which favors the idea the decline is a correction instead of a new bearish cycle in larger degree perspective.
Down from 24148 high, wave W ended at 23320 as a zigzag. Wave ((a)) of W ended at 23710 and wave ((b)) of W bounce ended at 23960. Index then resumed lower in wave ((c)) of W which ended at 23320. Bounce to 23800 ended wave X and wave Y lower ended at 22950 as another zigzag structure. Wave ((a)) of Y ended at 23170 and wave ((b)) bounce ended at 23570. Wave ((c)) of Y ended at 22950 which also completed wave (W) in larger degree. Expect the Index to bounce in wave (X) to correct cycle from December 17, 2019 high before the decline resumes. As far as pivot at 24148 high stays intact, expect the rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Nikkei bounced from support, potential for a further rise!
Nikkei bounced off 23660.0 where it could potentially rise further to 24540.0.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully
understand the risks.
Nikkei bounced from support, potential for a further rise!
Nikkei bounced off 23645.0 where it could potentially rise further to 24540.0.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully
understand the risks.
Nikkei 225 bounced from support, potential for a further rise!
Nikkei 225 bounced off 23645.0 where it could potentially rise further to 24540.0.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully
understand the risks.
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Should Extend HigherElliott Wave view in Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests that the Japanese Index ended wave (4) on December 3 at 22898. This is part of a bigger impulsive 5 waves rally from August 25, 2019 low (not shown on the chart). Up from August 25, 2019 low, wave (1) ended at 21970, wave (2) pullback ended at 21070, wave (3) ended at 23660 and wave (4) ended at 22898.
In the 1 hour chart below, we can see the Index has resumed higher in wave (5). The rally from December 3, 2019 low is unfolding as a 5 waves Elliott wave impulsive structure. Up from 12/3/2019 low, wave ((i)) ended at 23565 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 23265. The Index then extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 24075 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 23770.
Index is expected to end wave ((v)) soon with another leg higher. This final leg should also end wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, Index should correct cycle from December 3, 2019 low within wave 2 before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and prefer buying wave 2 dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 22898 low stays intact. Potential target for wave (5) is 100% – 123.6$ Fibonacci extension of wave (1) towards 25171 – 25707.
Nikkei 225 Japanese supply and demand forecastNikkei 225 Japanese Index has been rallying for a few weeks creating new strong weekly demand imbalances. Nikkei 225 index has unfortunately not retraced yet to any of these two strong weekly imbalances and continues to rally on its way to weekly supply imbalance around 23600.
Nikkei 225 Japanese Index futures forecast. As per the weekly timeframe analysis, Nikkei 225 Index futures is in a clear uptrend creating new weekly demand imbalances at 21850 and lower at 20570. Nikkei tried to correct and reached bottom weekly demand level but it just couldn’t and kept on rallying ending up creating another strong weekly demand imbalance around 21850.
Long term long bias on Nikkei index. This is the kind of price action technical analysis you will learn in our trading community. You will learn how to locate new supply and demand imbalances and trade without using any indicators, no news, no fundamental analysis, no earnings announcements, no volume or VSA analysis. Just supply and demand imbalances.
Trading supply and demand imbalances is ideal for beginners and those with a full or half time job, you won’t need to stay in front of the computer all day long trying to move price action with your mind.
Elliott Wave: Nikkei Bullish Sequence Favors More upsideNikkei incomplete sequence from December 26, 2018 low and August 26, 2019 low, favoring further upside. A 100% Fibonacci extension from August 26, 2019 low comes at 23360 while 100% extension from December 26, 2018 low comes at 23380. Until the Index reaches this area, short term dips likely remain supported in 3, 7, or 11 swing. On the chart below, we can see the pullback to 21070 ended wave ((2)). The Index resumes higher in wave ((3)) with the internal subdivision unfolding a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure.
Up from 21070, wave 1 ended at 21650 and wave 2 pullback ended at 21325. Index then resumed higher in wave 3 towards 2300, and wave 4 pullback ended at 22661. Index should soon complete wave 5 of (1). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave (2) to correct the cycle from October 3 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the Index and expect buyers to appear in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 21070 low stays intact.
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Buyers in ControlNikkei shows Elliott Wave bullish sequence from December 26, 2018 low and August 26, 2019 low. This suggests that buyers are in control and favors further upside in the Index. The pullback to 21079 ended wave ((2)) and the Index has resumed higher in wave ((3)). Internal subdivision of wave ((3)) takes the form of a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure.
Wave (1) of ((3)) is currently in progress as a leading diagonal. Up from 21079, wave 1 ended at 21650, wave 2 ended at 21325, wave 3 ended at 22265, and wave 4 ended at 21905. Expect Index to soon complete wave 5 of (1). Afterwards, Index should pullback in wave (2) to correct the cycle from October 3 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the Index and expect buyers to appear in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 21079 low stays intact.
Nikkei225 price action setuoLooking forward for further upside & correction PA, by 1st half of October '19.
Nikkei Soars Boosted by Conciliatory Tone on Trade War (02)This chart corresponds to the Nikkei daily chart from our article "Nikkei Soars Boosted by Conciliatory Tone on Trade War#
Nikkei Soars Boosted by Conciliatory Tone on Trade WarAsian stocks markets it's traded mostly bullish this Friday aided by a conciliatory tone between China and the United States. This week, the Nikkei 225 (CME:NKD) index futures soars 2.38%, but in the long-term, the Japanese index could see more drops.
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Looking for More DownsideShort Term Elliott Wave View in Nikkei suggests the decline to 19900 on August 6 ended wave (3). The Index is currently in wave (4) bounce and the internal subdivision is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 19900, wave W ended at 20795 as a zigzag. Wave ((a)) of W ended at 20650 and wave ((b)) of W ended at 20220. Then the move higher to 20795 completed wave ((c)) of W.
The Index then pullback to 20075 which ended wave X with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Wave ((a)) of X ended at 20300, wave ((b)) of X ended at 20765, and wave ((c)) of X ended at 20075. Wave Y is in progress with the internal subdivision of a double three in lesser degree. Up from 20075, wave ((w)) ended at 20685 and wave ((x)) ended at 20450. Near term, while above 20075, Index has scope to extend higher towards 20974 – 21530 area to end wave Y of (4). Expect sellers to appear from the above area and Index to either resume lower or pullback in 3 waves at least. We don’t like buying the Index.
Nikkei 225 Could See a New LowThe futures of Japanese index Nikkei 225 (NKD) it's been traded mostly bearish. During this month, NKD eases 4.98%. In this post, we'll review the short-term Elliott Wave structure and what to expect from this index for the coming days.
Elliott Wave & Intermarket Analysis For NIKKEI And USDJPYHello traders!
Today we will talk about stocks, specifically Nikkei and why USDJPY can see higher prices.
Well, as you may already know, in EW theory after a three-wave corrective decline, the trend should remain to the upside. This is what we see in the stock market all the time. However, Nikkei got our attention, because we can see a nice five-wave rally after that three-wave a-b-c correction, which means that Nikkei remains in uptrend, but after another three-wave correction in the lower degree, where ideal support would be here around 21450 - 21250 levels, just keep in mind that bullish confirmed can be only if it manages to turn back above 21770 region!
In the right picture you can see tight positive correlation between NIKKEI and USDJPY, which means that if NIKKEI points higher, then even USDJPY can see higher prices, so don't be surprised if USDJPY remains bullish towards 109 area or higher!
So, seems like risk-on sentiment may continue and when we are in risk-on, we usually see bullish stocks, which are followed by recovery on XXX/JPY crosses. That being said, be aware of a bullish continuation on stocks, while XXX/JPY cross pairs may see a bigger recovery!
Be humble, trade smart and wait for the right sentiment to enter the market!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Confluence of coincidence: $NKYLast Oct I published a series of charts named “The preponderance of evidence”, I think it is time for a new series. I think the charts itself should be self explanatory. Feel free to drop me a line on what you think.
Nikkei Futures broke TL support, heading lower, watch yens Nikkei Futures broke trend line support, heading further south - watch the yen pairs
Chart of the Day: NY1! Potential +3% counter-trend rallyAt this stage of the market, one should expect global equities to have a correlation of 1x and today's chart of the day for the NY1! can be viewed in-line with yesterday's call on the ES1!.
The NY1! should see some support at current levels as it approaches key SSR levels and test the lows of the 4th leg of the 3-Drive formation (if you prefer, Elliot Wave 5-Wave). If you increase the resolution to the 30M time frame, the basing process is apparent.
At this stage, I am looking for a counter-trend rally to the 21.8k level which be congestion zone made up of a SSR level, moving average, trend line resistance as well as the 61.8% retracement level. Why is it a counter-trend rally:-
#1 It is a trend break and unless price action breaks above the trend-line resistance, one should be looking for a ABCD move down at the minimum.
#2 The Apr'19 peak is a lower high versus the Oct'18 peak which implies the ABCD down move in #1 is actually part of a larger CD leg down.
#3 The $JPY should be viewed as a haven trade to test the lows of 107 over the medium term.
#4 As previously mentioned, Trump has left himself with no possible exit beyond total victory which includes crossing red lines set by the Chinese. While I can't opine if the Art of the Deal will prevail, I would say the odds of failure is very high. The situation is very similar in the US confrontation with Iran, there is no better alternative from the Trump administration and if Iran is pushed into a corner, the odds of a conflict is very high.
This is my 2cents and should not be viewed as a solicitation to buy or sell or trade any securities. For more information on SSR levels, please search for Relative Force Significant Support and Resistance under Scripts.
