$BABA Alibaba Parallel Down TrendNYSE:BABA Alibaba Parallel Down Trend continues, below the 50 day moving average. BABA needs to consolidate and break the down trend before it is safe to inter a long position.
BABAF trade ideas
BABA Sell SignalBABA bounced back toward the 50-day MA, but it was too weak to break it, signaling there is no momentum in this move. In the last several days, and today also, BABA formed a lower high and lower low, signaling a new downtrend.
Furthermore, BABA dropped out of the bear flag, signaling it is going down again. Sell, sell, sell. RSI did recover nicely and is now in the middle, while MACD is already pointing down, signaling more pain in front of the bulls.
It is very likely BABA will drop into the support box of 60-66 and will find long-term support in this area. This area has been a support since 2016, last year, and could or should act as support yet again.
There is almost no chance for bulls to recover from this situation, especially as China is in a huge economic problem, while at the same moment, the USA stock market is at its extreme and in overbought territory.
For bulls, their chance is that BABA must close above the 75.20-75.5 area today to avoid a lower low and to stay inside the bear flag and start to move up as soon as possible with huge volume.
It is almost certain I'll be under attack now, but this is a game of odds and probabilities and is not a game of being in love with a stock or any other asset. Profitable traders trade according to their own trading rules, while others trade according to their fear and greed.
Good luck to all.
$BABA what a strong bounce!NYSE:BABA The stock is trading inside a descending channel, and last Friday's candle with the increased volume showed a strong bounce from the 3.618 Fib extension.
The Accumulation Distribution, MACD, and RSI all show bullish divergence, meaning accumulation is happening underneath while the price declined.
The weekly candle also printed a hammer candle, which means if the price can close above $70.50, it can see further gains.
Here are my upside targets:
$73
$76
$80
$85
Downside Risk:
$63
I post detailed technical analysis of stocks with targets. If you find my analysis helpful, please don't forget to give me a follow.
Navigating Alibaba's TurbulenceAlibaba Group Holding Limited ( NYSE:BABA ), a behemoth in the Chinese e-commerce and technology landscape, has recently faced tumultuous times, and investors find themselves at a crossroads.
The Current Landscape:
Alibaba, often referred to as "China's Amazon," has witnessed a significant downturn, with its stock plunging 39% over the past year. The broader concerns surrounding U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and regulatory challenges, have cast a shadow over Alibaba and its peers. The Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF, reflecting the performance of Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., has seen a notable decline of 23% in the last year.
Amidst the storm, the intriguing question arises: Does Alibaba's current valuation, trading at a Price/Earnings ratio of 10, present an irresistible opportunity or a potential pitfall?
The Bull Case and its Obstacles:
Previously, Alibaba's ambitious plan to spin off six of its business units held promise for unlocking shareholder value. However, the cancellation of the spinoff of its cloud business, coupled with the halt of plans for its Freshippo grocery retail chain, has injected a dose of uncertainty. The announcement led to a sharp decline in Alibaba's stock in November, emphasizing the significant hurdles posed by expanded U.S. restrictions on exports of computer chips.
The Journey Ahead:
As investors weigh the potential rewards against the risks, a careful examination of Alibaba's long-term performance offers valuable insights. The stock has experienced a staggering 71% decline over the past three years, remaining down 53% over the last five years and off 19% since September 2014.
Strategic Decisions and the Road to Recovery:
Alibaba's strategic decisions, particularly the cancellation of key spinoffs, warrant cautious consideration. The wait-and-see approach suggested by analysts underscores the importance of clarity around China's economic recovery and resolution of other China-related issues.
Conclusion:
Alibaba's journey through the volatile landscape of U.S.-China relations and regulatory challenges presents both risks and opportunities. As investors grapple with the decision of whether to buy, sell, or hold Alibaba stock, a nuanced understanding of the company's strategic moves, the broader economic context, and the wisdom encapsulated in analyst recommendations is essential. The path ahead for Alibaba is uncertain, but for investors willing to weather the storm, the potential rewards may be substantial.
$BABA - Falling knife or catching a bottomNYSE:BABA Boy! It sure give the bulls a feeling of catching a falling knife. I remain bullish.
The company seems to be not doing aggressive buy backs as the fall is making it quite obvious.
In terms of technicals, the fib is so far providing a support. If $67 fails, $63 is next. The bulls need to see the stock close above $73 to be reclaim momentum.
BABAVideoAnalysis. Have we bottomed or heading to $50.
Please let me know your thoughts about this stock.
Thanks BigMike
BABA: When to buy? Here is the TrendCloud Trading Analysis of BABA.
If you are looking to be a buyer and accumulate this stock then here is an edge you can use.
All 3 charts are in a downtrend and momentum is also down. This is very powerful and we can not start buying yet.
Take a look at the demand zone coming up on the daily chart.
We can look for trend reversal patterns on the 15 minute chart inside of the Daily demand zone.
BABA building a potentially bullish setupThe China tech sector is looking was oversold and due for a sizeable rebound soon.
Alibaba (BABA), among others, seems near to complete its corrective B wave and start a new upleg.
Only a break below last year's low would invalidate this view.
BABAI like Alibaba for the long term.
There are some concerns with China at the moment, but time will probably favor this company.
ALIBABA The fall of a former giant continues.Alibaba (BABA) has been trading within a Channel Down since the July 31 2023 High. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been acting as the basic Resistance while a truly sustainable bullish trend can technically exist only above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Until then every 1D MA50 rejection such as December 28, is a Lower High on the Channel Down and a sell opportunity. Every Lower Low has been greater in decline % terms, the latest was 20.30% so we can see a Lower Low around 62.00 before a rebound, buy we will buy if contact with the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down is made earlier. The Target will be +11.00% from that point.
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BABA - Alibaba long positionAround 60 (60.2) is a good level for buying, targeting aroun 80$
lets wait and take long position
$BABA Alibaba. Kissing this one goodbyeTwo rules:
1.Don't lose money
2. Don't forget rule one
This share is undervalued - Check
Softbank is gradually reducing their large stake - Check
This share had lost momentum to the upside - Check
Break below wedge for a new 52 week low - Check
$BABA the fallen GiantI can't stop thinking of NYSE:BABA despite the recent uncertainties surrounding China related stocks. A painful lesson that I had learned during Covid period was that China stocks are un-investable, and I learned that through $SE. Even though NYSE:SE is not directly related to China, but for some reason due to Tencent being one of the major shareholder for NYSE:SE , I had an unrealized loss of 50% as of today :(
I still believe in NYSE:SE , and I have my own reasons. NYSE:SE is my second largest stock in my investing portfolio, and I am currently looking to slowly collect more NYSE:BABA shares.
Truth be told, the share price is too cheap for NYSE:BABA to be currently valued at roughly $70 per share. Based on my intrinsic value, NYSE:BABA should be easily at least $150-$180 per share, a potential upside of 114%-157%.
However, a dilemma that I currently have as of now is that, should I invest or trade NYSE:BABA ? Current share price of $70 promise a very low downside with a huge upside potential. All eyes would be on the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on 5 March 2024 whereby they will be expected to discuss the nation's crucial economic and political issues.
To me, I would give them a benefit of doubt for one last time to prove me wrong that China stocks are un-investable, I will gradually collect more NYSE:BABA shares for the price around $70-$72 while I can and I believe the fallen Giant will emerge stronger again one day.
BABA AnalysisPrice played out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a -4.96% move to the downside before the bullish retracement. No changes to my expectations, I'm expecting price to continue lower to take out the clean lows at 70.08 and mitigate the bullish order block below before continuing higher.
BABA long trade ideaHigh probability trade with a good risk to reward ratio. You can aim for more and I might drag the TP higher if things go as planned
Alibaba - 80% drop from the peak, what are you doing about it ?Sell, sell , sell. Much like the panic and frustration in the China property market, from Tier 1 to Tier 3 and beyond, you read up about more and more news about home owners selling their properties 30-60% off their purchase price.
The stock market is no better. Once , the darlings of China Tech industry, Alibaba is soon reaching its 80% lowest point from its peak at 300.
Trillions of dollars have wiped out the entire market, consumers' confidence are ultra low, job market prospects are bleak as graduates continue not able to find jobs and thus have to force save whatever money that they have coming. Already a saving nation, we are witnessing a much higher savings rates than before as people are afraid and uncertain of the economy prospects , seeing no light at the end of the tunnel. Their main investment holdings - properties are now facing the biggest threat in their lifetime.
2024, it is highly likely that we see the government continue to lower interest rates and come up with even more attractive policies to attract first time and 2nd time buyers to snap up the properties as these developers are facing high debts that are too high to pay off without some form of government's assistance. The whole world is watching China now !!!!
Revenue for Alibaba remain strong and Jack Ma has announced he will not be selling his shares for now and has recently written a memo to his staff to pull up the socks.
However, many investors are very concerned about the China's goverments as their moves can wipe out their investment returns. Many have sold off their stocks, ETFs, etc and focus on US/Europe and Asia.
I am not buying aggressively nor buying any new stocks from China/HK as yet but continue to watch closely. It could be another 3-6 months before we see a possible turnaround on the China's equities market. With the 30 days free visa that China has signed with several countries, this initiative should boost consumers to spend more, though still a far cry from pre Covid times.
Be patient now.....do not let the negative news affect you too much
BABA might be ready to goBABA is massively discounted, showing a nice R/R down here. Possibility of one more marginal low in the high 60's, which would print a nice divergence on the RSI. Targets $80+ to fill first gap then $100+
$BABA - Double bottom?NYSE:BABA formed a double bottom with a bounce from the trendline and closed above the fib. I still think it is one of the best catch up play in the market.
If the stock can close above $79, it will validate double bottom and channel breakout.
I added more on the morning dip. Let's hope that I am right. 🙏
The price targets from Jan 2nd is not changed.
Alibaba - BABA long with $120 targetYesterday the community entered a long on BABA after we backtested a key level of significance and the falling wedge as support.
The chart is prettty good, a completed harmonic below support, spring and break of the falling wedge to get above support before backtesting that level as support once again, whilst at the same time showing bullish divergence... No need for anything else.
We entered with 5x leverage at 83.43 and the profit taking levels are defined. Tomorrow is earnings and so this is a risky trade, earnings is like the lottery and does take your edge away as we witnessed with Spotify. However, we follow the charts, and they suggest upside.
120$ THIRD TARGET -- LETS GO
