$BABA with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $BABA after a Positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 75%.
BABAF trade ideas
Alibaba Breakout upsideAlibaba is in a descending triangle pattern. We expect that after the breakout the price will increase.
Entry level, Stop loss and Target price in the chart.
caught inside range 80 -124caught inside range 80 -124...add at bottom sell at top...for holding buy above 125 long term
Alibaba Group Holding Limited - Risk Assessment ReportAlibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) shares gained over 7% in pre-market trading August 4 after posting good results for its difficult first fiscal quarter. Both sales and earnings per share were higher than expected. For the June quarter, revenue was $30.7 billion, similar to the previous year. Even though it was the weakest rate of growth on record, investors welcomed it because consensus had previously predicted a fall for the very first time in Alibaba's history owing to sweeping city-wide lockdowns in April and May. Earnings for the June quarter also above consensus projections by $0.19 per share, coming in at $1.75, highlighting smart cost reductions in the face of inflationary pressures and the higher expenses of navigating through COVID interruptions.
However, sentiment toward Alibaba shares remains shaky. All of its gains from the May to July rise have been erased in recent weeks, with the stock now down over 22% since the start of the year. The broad theme for Alibaba stock remains volatility, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy have been shattered in recent weeks by news of heightened concerns about a faltering domestic economy and renewed regulatory concerns. The market's scepticism over Alibaba shares is underscored by the limited gain in pre-market trading following a favourable earnings surprise this morning.
However, sentiment toward Alibaba shares remains shaky. All of its gains from the May to July rise have been erased in recent weeks, with the stock now down over 20% since the start of the year. The broad theme for Alibaba stock remains volatility, as optimistic uptrends bolstered by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, improved COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to sustain the Chinese economy have been shattered in recent weeks by news of heightened concerns about a faltering domestic economy and renewed regulatory concerns. The market's scepticism over Alibaba shares is underscored by the limited gain in pre-market trading following a favourable earnings surprise this morning.
Although Alibaba's valuation seems reasonable at present levels, given its strong balance sheet and continued dominance in e-commerce and cloud-computing services in China, the stock is nonetheless overshadowed by dangers that are in flux. The instability of Alibaba's comeback over the last year demonstrates that the fundamental dangers to the stock continue to overshadow any advantageous valuation. With all of Alibaba's key underlying concerns continuing in a very volatile condition with no structural signs of change, the stock has practically nothing to stand on its own against the extra challenge of brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba might fall in the short term as its primary Chinese market and surrounding overseas markets battle with a weakening macroeconomic environment, making it a high-risk investment decision despite what appear to be good pricing compared to rivals in a comparable company.
Risk Factors
The decline in Alibaba shares occurred in late 2020, when rising regulatory worries prompted a valuation adjustment in U.S listed Chinese securities. Since then, the condition has deteriorated as regulatory obstacles began to have an impact on Alibaba's basic performance. Subsequent macroeconomic challenges, like COVID interruptions in China and a deteriorating local and global economy, have only worsened the bad outcomes.
Despite recent optimism emanating from the conclusion of high-profile inquiries, such as the cybersecurity inquiry into DiDi Global (OTCPK:DIDIY) and the announcement of fresh gaming license permits, regulatory concerns remain apparent, and investors' trust is eroding. Markets continued to penalise the stock at the first indication of regulatory shortcomings, as seen by recent drops in response to reports that Alibaba was fined $375,000 in early July for breaking state guidelines on past acquisition disclosures. Its cloud division was being probed for its possible involvement in one of the country's greatest ever data breaches.
Regulatory probing of Alibaba's operations has had additional negative effects on its core performance. Due to growing national security concerns in the public sector, the company's cloud-computing business, Alicloud, is gradually declining in market share to its state-backed counterparts. In China, the unit's market share plummeted from 45.9 percent in 2019 to 36.7 percent in 2021, while state-backed rival Huawei's cloud market share more than quadrupled during the same period. Despite remaining China's top public cloud service provider, Alicloud is no longer the favoured option as the CCP intensifies efforts for data security within government entities. As a result, the Chinese government has eliminated foreign PCs and has accelerated the transition from private clouds like Alicloud to governmental cloud platforms, jeopardizing Alibaba's unified bottom-line performance. This is supported by a slowdown in Alibaba's highly successful cloud business in the first quarter, when sales increased by only 9% year on year, the weakest rate on record.
Alibaba annual report FY22
Chinese stocks are still kept captive by the HFCAA, as the US SEC ramps up efforts to guarantee that all securities on the United States stock market are governed by the same regulations and regulatory procedures, particularly complying with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Investors' worries about the prospect of the company being delisted have recently returned as Alibaba was recently added to the list of delinquent firms whose auditors have disobeyed PCAOB inspection requirements. This essentially starts a countdown for Alibaba, putting it at risk of delisting from the NYSE if Chinese officials are unable to achieve a settlement with the SEC and PCAOB on giving up the books of its domestic firms for scrutiny.
The global economy's slowdown threatens to undermine Alibaba's recent change in focus to expanding its overseas e-commerce platforms. During the June quarter, Alibaba's foreign commerce retail sector sales fell by 2.7% year on year, while order volumes fell by 4.1% year on year. Rising inflation and restrictive central bank policies in Alibaba's key abroad markets, like the United States and Europe, have resulted in lower consumer discretionary spending, complicating Alibaba's efforts to compensate for domestic commerce slowdown with worldwide growth.
In the long run, we anticipate that the combined business will expand at a moderate five-year CAGR of 5.7 percent, with Alicloud serving as the catalyst. As noted in the preceding study, Beijing's regulatory makeover of the private sector over the last two years has fundamentally altered the exponential growth that Chinese big tech previously enjoyed. we anticipate that any long-term revival in Alibaba's business would be modest. However, given the macro uncertainties in both domestic and international markets, Alibaba's share price could possibly hit $70-75 range
BABA long term trend. (OUTBREAK) looking at the long term trend. we recently broke out of an 18 month downward channel. now doing a retest. probably bouncing up in the coming months.
Chinese Stocks Inverse H&S reversal? BABA had strong earnings and beat earnings expectations.
The stock popped and retraced back however it is showing nice support on that right shoulder along with XPEV and & NIO.
I like these stocks as a buy here and think they can easily reach the neckline resistance by the end of the month. They
They have all broke their respective downtrends.
XPEV & NIO have earnings this month and with many people converting to electric vehicles they could surprise us in a good way.
Im still skeptical on SPY at current levels so I would like to see how these stocks react on the next retracement/correction/continuation.
lovely chart going into its ER tomorrow 🚀higher lows / perfect bounce from RSI support and on verge of breaking this local downtrend.
amzn recently broke out on a decent earnings report, baba is commonly called the amazon of china. Will they also rally on earnings though? lets see!
goodluck, please dont forget to drop a heart and follow for more. Thanks ❤
Safer way to Be long BABA DOTM 80 PutHi everyone,
China this am came out with a better tone toward their tech industry and markets.
Assuming that geo political events do not get worse between the USA vs China.
I am making a Long term asset accumulation bet on Alibaba
1) I discuss straight stock asset ownership
vs
2) Getting an income by selling the deep out of the money 80 strike September put for $9.15 resulting in a
11.43% ROI as of this writing, also providing us a safety of margin from current $97 price to 70.85 assignment cost
2 Outcomes
a) stocks goes up and stay above the 80 strike by the September Expiration date we pocket the 11.43% or $9.15
b) Stocks tank below 80 get called and I own Alibaba stock the asset, at a price I already decided was a comfortable and good support around (assignment price $80-9.15)=70.85
Hope it helps this strategy is only valid with two things in mind
1)buy asset you love and want to keep for the long term
2)be prepared to hold if it goes below 70.85 and be confident enough of the long term 5-20 years for the underlying stock as an asset in this case Alibaba
Hope it helps
Marc
$BABA Is Alibaba Ready To Be Treasured In Our Portfolios?Traders, Speaking to my of my investor friend in the US around a year ago, I predicted alibaba to fall below 100 and that's when we could get a chance to buy back again. Alibaba $BABA Has been consolidating at the current levels for few months under 100 dollars. Now as it has created a very good pattern inside the bollinger band, this can become a speculative buy in our portfolio again. The risk is limited i.e. stop loss will be below last lowest low and the target much higher giving us very good Reward to Risk.
BABA AnalysisPrice has been doing exactly as analyzed since my call on 08 July 2022. We are at the bullish POI at 90.17. Potentially we will see a bullish retracement to take out the buy-side liquidity from here.
Aiming 180 first for AlibabaThe speculation continued for the world renowned Company, Alibaba about its founder, Jack Ma being "blacklisted" to being "heavily watched by CCP" and thus he was punished for saying anti-China topics in his last convention.
Of course, there are different camps sitting on this matter, with some believing it is a political move and others saying Alibaba is made as the black sheep for the other Tech giants to see (mess with the CCP and the result is clear).
Yesterday, 9% rise of this stock sent glimmers of hopes to its loyal fans and investors who were disappointed time and time again as they witnessed this stock plummet 65% from its peak at over 310 dollars to its current price of 123.60.
It's fundamentals remain strong , witnessed by the latest Singles Day revenue and compared to its global competitor, Amazon, it is deeply undervalued. Surely, this is not a hit and miss kind of stock , you definitely need patience and a longer time frame before you see your harvest.
Will be buying more later from the HK side (especially now the US is delisting the Chinese Tech companies)
Long on AliBaba I am long on NYSE:BABA ; because of technical reasons as well because Berkshire Hathaway is in a long position with 300 000 shares still long.
Trade Metrics :
- Position:
1 Aug 2022
Entry $88
SL $74
TP $135
-RR:
1:3.3
-Risk % / P / $:
1.5%
137 P
-12 $
-Reward % / P / $:
4,5%
461 P
-47 $
-Confluences:
88,60 FIB on monthly
Heavy Support zone
4 months of rejection on the block
78.6% on weekly
SHORT BABA IDEA GOT SUM PUTS FOR OCTsup dudes, here a decent short idea. pretty bearish on china rn in general since they wana invade places lol. long term leverage might be smart for this one or options if u can afford em. Bulls are struggling to keep above 100 when S&P having whole green days... anyways u can see where rsi got hammered and a huge loss of bullish moment came in so we basically going side ways till another leg down to fibo support. GL :). Also heres my trade 5, 21oct22 puts with a strike of 100$ fairly cheap atm. any option less that 1k will do ya right with the right time frame....
BABA may retest 87 zone if 100 fails; upsides are 110/120/130If BABA fails to hold the psychological 100 yellow zone, the the green 87 zone may be retested due to low volume below 100. Breaking 100 will also mean breaking below the red uptrendline as well as the Ichi Cloud in daily chart.
However if BABA holds 100 & the uptrendline, then we may see upside targets at 110, 120 & even 130. Last July there was a 2-day false BO above 120 resistance before BABA reversed down back inside the downward Fib Channel to retest 100. Breaking ma200 above 120 will be bullish.
Not trading advice
alibaba stockas price heading to our POI I do expect price will rally at that zone so lets wait and see how price will react after tapping our POI
time for break of support? 🙌has held this support area for over a month now so we should wait for break of 97, after that we can target 94-87.6-81.1
Forecast № 29 BABA (ALIBABA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD) NYSEForecast for price reduction. Earlier, the forecast No. 20 for price reduction was published. The downtrend continues
BABA AnalysisNo changes to my analysis from last week. Price is on a downtrend. Price has played according to my analysis from last week. Price is unable to close above 124.11, took liquidity and went down to take out the sell-side liquidity. I'm expecting price to hit the bullish POI at 90.17 before we see any retracement to the upside.
$BABA short idea Alibaba $BABA is a Chinese E-commerce platform that flourished during COVID but is now struggling due to currency exchange, supply chain, and lockdowns in China.
Bearish technicals show a bear flag with price right at the breakdown levels here. Downside levels are 94, 92, 89, 84. Stop loss 105.
OptionsSwing Analyst
Daniel Betancourt
BABA wait for itAfter gapping down on July 11 we see a steady down trend. Price recently closed under the (weekly) trend line and the .23 Fibonacci level.
On balance volume confirms the down trend, as does the Force Index. I am looking for a bounce off the 0 fib level or $94 which has acted as support on the monthly time frame.
I will consider adding to a long term position in the highlighted range.
