BTI Flash ViewThursday 06-December-2023, 06h30 British American Tobacco (BTI, 53198c). BTI's market update saw it's share lower by almost 11% on the day - it's biggest daily decline since 2019. There's plenty of opinion and commentary, so to differentiate, I'll present my brief manual view as well as the reading from the Tactical Trading Guide as of yesterday's close. Testing the lower boundary of parallel channel. The upper and lower boundaries of the channel connect the highs and lows of the price trend to reflect key accumulation and distribution levels.
BTAFF trade ideas
BTI: Bouncing Off Wedge SupportLooking at USD, that is positively correlated to British American Tobacco, there is scope for price to move towards the wedge resistance. Since price is within timing for a weekly low we can expect such a move to close above the resistance line on a weekly basis. This idea should be read in conjunction with the USD trade idea here linked.
Time for a breather for BTI? BTI has been in a descending channel. Is it time for a breather before further downside? Remains a risky trade. RSI signaling a bullish divergence.
Direction: Buy
Target: R617.42
Stop loss: R549.82
Risk/Reward: 2
Traders/Investors should always make their own analysis, the idea posted is just a guideline. Risk management is always your number one priority.
$JSEBTI - British American Tobacco: Vuse Ban Adds To Bear TrendThe US health regulator on Thursday blocked the sale of six flavours of British American Tobacco’s (BAT) main vape brand, Vuse Alto, in the market including the menthol flavour that makes up a large portion of its sales.
This bad news comes at a time when the share price has long been in a downtrend and as can be seen by todays candle and volume, sellers came in strong.
I maintain the bearish outlook from the previous analysis, see link below.
My new price target is now 53000
BTI Weekly in Potential Reversal ZoneBTI has recovered the falling wedge support, now above the 200 week moving average as well. The convergence of the 200WMA & wedge support represents a strong support that should guide price upwards & confirm a weekly low price by closing above the pink resistance. On a daily timeframe we see price seeking a half cycle correction. Worth noting on daily time frame the pink resistance coincides with the 200DMA. This resistance can send price into a daily cycle low, if that is set above price of R595.38 it presents a good buying opportunity with high confidence that 15 June is a weekly low.
BTI safer covered call with dividendBTI loves to oscillate between 32$ and 45$. A simple strategy would be to enter around not spot and hold through a quarterly dividend. Jet fuel in calls could also be applied to lever the bet. A >8% dividend is nice these days in this uncertain market. The company has heavily pivoted to vaping and does not need to rely on American markets.
British-American Tobacco Ending UptrendBTI has hit upper blue resistance where it was rejected, price can be expected to find support around current price level, however any swing highs from then on are worthy of a short entry. The pivot that forms will guide re-entry after taking profits. If price breaks below R634.01 (29 September low) then the downtrend should persist into 2023 & gives confidence to hold a higher short position.
The lower pink trendline is a price objective for fully exiting short position.
$JSEBTI - British American Tobacco: There Is Smoke, But No FireThe last coverage of BTI was on 10.02.2023 and the outlook has not changed, link below.
BTI is the only rand hedge stock which had share price weakness despite the rand blowing out most recently, further evidence that the stock has no real bidders.
The only question is how much lower can the bears take the price as there is no clear support levels and price action from 2019 has been wild and choppy.
Short the rallies towards 56000
British-American Tobacco Now BearishBTI has price has gone below 11 November low, this represent failure of a daily cycle and price turning bearish. Not far from current low is 29 September low of R634.01, if this is breached the bearish extends to the weekly price action further confirmation of a bearish trend ensuing.
For traders who were not short, the pink declining resistance line is a possible entry point as well as the 200 day MA that turned resistance. Places of interest to close short positions:
1. The green trendline
2. the black trendline
3. The pink trendline which would also be realistic point to go long
BTI Breakout with Back TestIf history rhymes then British American Tobacco has broken out & did a back test of the trendline that has constricted it from April 2020 (see previous breakout & move in 2019). I would expect it to move up nicely & take partial profit 20-30% move, buy back on strategic pullbacks. An ambitious move would target 44% from breakout level.
BATS... Time to buy the bottom of the Dip?!Here we see BATS on the daily, there are three factors indicating the price may have found a bottom...
1) The RSI has formed a divergence, the RSI MA has hit the oversold 30 bar (which is a rarity).
2) The MACD has had a crossover, albeit in the lower half.
3) the share price has hit a key level, in it being the major resistance level prior to the breakout in 2021.
Also, let us note that BATS has a "buy" rating, and price target of £35 to £41, and is currently yielding over 8%.
Obviously there might be something happening with the company behind the scenes, but I think that is unlikely as we can see insiders have been doing nothing but buying...
www.lse.co.uk
Therefore, if I had sold out, which I should have done at £36, I would more than be happy buying back in now. However I didn't sell any, as my average was only £28, so I will top up on this drop and more so if we are lucky to see £26 again.
Thanks!
BTIBRITISH AMERICAN TOBCCO (BTI, 62568c) | In the short term, I’m seeing a megaphone formation and if it trades at support, it should likely be in a short term oversold range. In the words of Carter Worth: ‘Trend Line Touches, To The Penny!’. Provisional buy between 61300c - 61900c, with a target of 64000c - 64500
$JSEBTI - British American Tobacco: Where There Is Smoke, ......BAT released its annual results for FYE 31.12.2022 yesterday.
There are some highlights and I recommend investors and traders read for themselves.
Seeing that the share traded lower on the news, it can be concluded that Mr. Market is not that excited.
Looking at BAT from an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like the share price is going nowhere excruciatingly slowly.
Let's take a look at some EWP patterns;
Wave (2) unfolded as an expanding flat.
The impulsive move from 49111 to 73124 from March 2020 would have given any Elliottician hope that the uptrend was back.
The decline from 73124 to 50757 is a zigzag.
The rally from 51051 to 74444 is an ending diagonal making the entire move from 50757 to 74444 a zigzag.
The bigger picture is that BAT is probably forming a larger flat correction of wave 1 which peaked at 73124.
The implication is that the stock is now in wave ((c)) of 2 and price could move lower, back towards the 51000 region.
BRITISH TOBACCO - Resistance Ambush Zone- BTI presented a great short opportunity intraday off the back of negative news.
- Consequently, price was in the ambush zone of the last leg down.
- If bulls don't reclaim R686 in the today or tomorrow, we could likely see the 200dma tested or even swing low.