BTI - long triggeredA long position has been triggered on JSE:BTI based off of the turning of the MACD and the stochastic as well as the crossing of the 2 EMAs.
BTAFF trade ideas
BTI at my buy value areaI have calculated a buy value at roughly $36 (fair value based on earnings forecast minus 20% margin of security).
Now we are at this price.
Chart is in the main volume cluster but is falling like the entire sector (PM and MO have the same beta - volatility - at the moment)
BTI is plus affecting now by the fear of american investors due to the falling of pound sterlin and voices are telling about a possible cut in USD dividend.
Maybe usd dividend could return from 7% to the 5% which is the tobacco sector's dividend avarage. MO offers higher dividend at the moment but its economics and fair value are not in line with my strategies.
Looking the history, escluding the 80s, BTI did not performe bad during the falling of pound sterlin, and never a cut of its dividend in a big shot.
Tobacco sector is my preferred in line with the actual economic cycle, drop is good for buying lower, cash flows are strong and people will continue to smoke even during the recession.
British American Tobacco OUTLOOKLet's start from the fact that we all see a diamond shape (reversal pattern) in the bottom after major drop from 2018.
Most popular target for BTI is just above $50 where mid-term supply zone is.
Confident growth of the last two months hints at the prospects for an upward exit from the three-year side-trend.
The main risk is the high debt level. The ratio of debt to assets of the company is 54%, which is significant, but not deadly.
As the US enters a cycle of tightening monetary policy and raising the Fed's rate, bond quotes are falling to match key rate forecasts in yields. The stock market as a whole is also declining to provide a risk premium over notional risk-free US Treasuries. But repricing affects individual stocks differently. January showed growth stocks reacting more negatively than stocks with strong cash flows and high dividends.
The S&P 500 has lost more than 4% since the start of 2022, with British American Tobacco shares gaining more than 15% in value.
Shares are generating a high dividend yield of 6.9% per annum, higher than the industry average of 3%.
BTI does not look overbought, with EV/EBITDA of 9.44 versus an industry average of 8.53, and a P/E of 9.35 versus an industry average of 14.59
BTI can play a role of a defensive asset, can be in high demand against the backdrop of another wave of market decline.
BTI at an area of valueJSE:BTI setting for a long opportunity, note resistance on a higher time frame.
NYSE:BTI has been playing around this level for a while now, close above R714 trigger a long position. However, a clear bullish setup is above R730, where it'll have cleared the R720-ish resistance level that's on the weekly time frame.
R714 is like a low cheat entry, in anticipation to a breakout above R730. It can fail, manage risk accordingly.
BAT (BATS.l) bearish scenario:The technical figure Rising Wedge can be found in the UK company British American Tobacco plc (BATS.l) at daily chart. British American Tobacco plc is a British multinational company that manufactures and sells cigarettes, tobacco and other nicotine products. The company, established in 1902, is headquartered in London, England. As of 2019, it is the largest tobacco company in the world based on net sales The Rising Wedge has broken through the support line on 06/07/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 27 days towards 3 194.00 GBp. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 3 645.00 GBp if you decide to enter this position.
The board of British American Tobacco p.l.c. has announced that it will be increasing its dividend on the 17th of August to UK £0.54. The announced payment will take the dividend yield to 6.0%, which is in line with the average for the industry. While it is always good to see a solid dividend yield, we should also consider whether the payment is feasible. The last payment made up 73% of earnings, but cash flows were much higher. This leaves plenty of cash for reinvestment into the business.
The next year is set to see EPS grow by 11.5%. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 69% by next year, which is in a pretty sustainable range.
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BRITISH TOBACCO - Monthly Observation British Tobacco is one of the few charts that is still printing green candles on the monthly and holding up in these volatile markets
Chart remains sold while we keep closing above R650 on the monthly time frame.
-- MANAGE YOUR RISK - -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
British Tobacco- Trade UpdateBti reaches a swing high after launching from the accumulation zone mentioned on the 14th Apr
Now to see if momentum continues, we could possibly consolidate here before the next leg .
Previous link below
-- MANAGE YOUR RISK - -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
looks ready to break back above, on the watchlist next week 🦉 46.62-47.79 was a strong support area for BTI during 2012-2018, now after 3-4 years of consolidation it looks like its ready to break back above?!
If it does break back above look for a rally to 54.34-65.71-77.08
like and follow for more! 💘
