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CytoDyn Inc.

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CYDY trade ideas

CYDY fiddling at apex of corrective wedge - Now or New Year?The previous pop back to old purple bottoms line predicted here in September fizzled a bit at the top peaking early around $2.55 instead of the expected $2.75-3.00. Now we're filling in leg E of the giant corrective wedge since July 2020 $10 high. While the shareholder vote this morning did not meet its quorum requirement, the good news is this morning's retest of C bottom $1.25 does mean leg E has met minimum fractal requirements for finishing the 5-wave orange wedge. However, we can see that the orange wedge apex does have room for more little oscillations in this area down as low as $1 into the end of 2021. CYDY said they will file the Breakthrough Designation application for TNBC cancer next week, which should support price with some speculation during 60-day FDA response window. Negative FDA response would naturally finish the wedge with spike down to $1, or positive FDA response would break out towards double digits.
OTC:CYDYLong
by pythagoras
2
Cytodyn due for a pop into OctoberCYDY performance has been dismal since the out-of-protocol "hold your horses!" FDA letter in late May, continuing down in a withering C wave. A great article posted by our friends KenChowder and ohm on Democrat blog dailykos.com yesterday was angrily removed by complainers conditioned to treat any good news on therapeutics as crazy Trumpist propaganda from the horse dewormer crowd. None of the great results coming in on cancer or NASH or COVID in Philippines is priced in. I think we've wallowed in bad news long enough and this week will have marked a slow rounded bottom at $1.23 with a pop to test the $2.75 apex of the purple wedge in October BEFORE the shareholder meeting and 13D standoff completes.
OTC:CYDYLong
by pythagoras
1
Cytodyn still stuck in corrective triangle from July $10 spikeThe FDA explanatory letter this week dropped Cytodyn to $1.77 Wednesday, lower than March $2 low but higher than November $1.63 low. We have a nice clean 5-wave impulse up off the lows back to $2.19 to end the week. It's tiny so far but at least a sign that Wednesday was washout low. So I'm sticking with the year-long 5-wave triangle correction as main thesis with 60% probability. The trip to $4 in April was another sloppy fakeout with this week's new low below $2 extending the C leg of the triangle from March to May. Next week we can test $1.90 again, then see a D-leg rally to $5-5.5 area upon long-haulers phase II trial results in June (lower than $6 prior D leg prediction, as the upper triangle resistance continues to come down). Then a final E-leg correction back into $2 range mid-summer, with final launch of wave III into double digits upon Brazil critical phase III interim results end of summer.
OTC:CYDYLong
by pythagoras
1
CYDY Finishing the big consolidation triangle?CYDY has rallied strongly from the $2 floor the past week, doubling to $4.2 this morning on recent understanding that results of CD12 study were hampered by the FDA's 2-dose limitation. With 4-doses spread over the 4-week patient evaluations, more severe patients would likely have been saved. If we conservatively stick to the consolidation triangle idea coming down from $10, we may see this week's rally leg peak out around $4.5 tomorrow, followed by consolidation above $3.5, and a retest as high as $6 in coming weeks before cooling off again. Given the enormous potential of Leronlimab against COVID and cancer, we consider this the most conservative guidance, with a breakout past $6 resistance quite possible too under grant of emergency authorization by any country.
OTC:CYDYLong
by pythagoras
CYDY update: still looks promising to me.There was a disappointing drop in price after my first posting. (see link below). Since then there has been very encouraging news on one of its drugs. The good news: Although in small trials, the drug appears to be very helpful in assisting treatment in severe infections with Covid-19. Bad news: multiple law firms are suing CYDY as these opportunistic firms do. Remember: small biotech often quit volatile and risky, i.e. not for everyone. Process your way. Take care. Have a good week.
OTC:CYDYLong
by goodguy
2
CYDY fizzled rally leaves long triangle consolidationThough CYDY managed to rally over the winter from 1.85 to 7.4 on COVID trial results speculation, the 1,2,i,ii,iii nesting sequence we spotted in December never materialized into the expected sequence of higher highs iv,v,4,5 into $8 and $9. The rally stretched and distorted in time ending as a 5-wave B-wave fakeout to $7.4 in February. A sharp C-wave correction ensued as shareholders learned that the 392 patient Phase III severe/critical COVID trial had not reached clear statistical significance overall, despite promising measures on certain internal subgroups. The interim FDA head Janet Woodcock just stated that the FDA now realizes that 400-500 patient trials are just not big enough given the COVID symptom variability, something neither FDA nor Cytodyn management knew when the trial launched a year ago. So far the C-wave correction stopped on strong volume at $2 without a new low, and it doesn't have to if we consider the additional delays putting us in an extended triangle consolidation with similar, smaller D and E waves to follow into the summer. The long awaited wave III successor to the June 2020 $10 rally can then start this fall or winter.
OTC:CYDYLong
by pythagoras
CYDY: Another biotech that looks promising. Cytodyn Inc. (CYDY) is another biotech. It uses viral immunology to develop treatments for HIV, Covid-19 treatment, and NASH (nonalcoholic steatohepatitis). NASH is greatly on the rise. The Price action from 2006 to 2020 could be seen as an irregular "W" base. Price has gone the major resistance line (1) now twice on a big upswing in volume. There is a positive reversal the daily RSI. Watch for a up break above the current daily short term downtrend line. The ".2" if a .62 correction of ".1" so the current short term correction may be over. We'll see. IFFFF this count is correct there is major possible gain ahead. All small biotechs are volatile and risky. Process your way. Best to ya.
OTC:CYDYLong
by goodguy
Complete Fractal labeling of CYDYCYDY is following last week's projection well, spiking parabolically higher to $7 instead of $6 but coming back to $4.5 support area as indicated. Here are my longer-term CYDY wave labels. Interestingly we're once again approaching the original central pitchfork channel started in November 2019 at $.26. That may provide some immediate resistance around $8 but if we can penetrate it a bit in mid-January gets us to $10-12 on COVID trial results. Then we can imagine a 2,3,4,5 of III path taking us into the $20s (for a retest of the upper 2019-$1 to July-$10 trend line) upon actual FDA approval for COVID.
OTC:CYDYLong
by pythagoras
2
CYDY bullish again waiting 4-6 weeks for COVID trial resultsCytodyn appears to be the "last man standing" amongst pharmaceutical treatments intended to stop the Cytokine storm that consumes severe COVID patients. It's Leronlimab trial is still anticipated to significantly reduce mortality and quickly get severe patients off ventilators when all competing drugs have fallen short of proving more than a few days reduced hospital stay. Other monoclonal antibodies like Regeneron's that attract the virus directly must be given within a few days of infection, and cannot help if given too late once patients reach severe state and enter hospital. Leronlimab interrupts the immune system's overreaction by blocking a key CCR5 receptor involved in signaling immune cells to migrate and inflame the lungs and other major organs. Cytodyn's trial finally completed enrollment of 390 patients this week, but the market must wait 4-6 weeks for patients to finish treatment and data to be analyzed. Price movement may be wholly anticipatory during this time and thus exhibit clean psychology and fractal dynamics. CYDY built a huge, 5-wave bullish wedge flag correcting from $10 at end of June back to $1.62 in early November. With a bullish trend well underway since the II bottom in early November, we can begin to flesh out how the near-term fractal structure is likely to play out assuming nested linear channels for wave 1 of III. (Parabolic movements are more likely to play out next year as waves 3 and 5 of III after announcement of results or FDA approval). In this bullish scenario, corrections over the next several weeks are expected to stay above $4 as the $5-8 range is explored again.
OTC:CYDYLong
by pythagoras
1
CYDY's FDA string-along scenarioSo far we haven't seen any indication that FDA or other agencies are in a hurry to approve Cytodyn's Emergency Use Authorization request or otherwise accelerate their trial and manufacturing process, despite Cytodyn's strong Phase II blind trial results and leadership in the race amongst pharmas to convincingly prove out a strongly safe and effective COVID treatment. Suppose this situation continues with Cytodyn publishing good Phase III interim results in October yielding retest of $10 in B , yet FDA continues to stall requesting more data or Phase III final results, and November's elections results flounder in turmoil. It would be sad but conceivable that FDA approval is delayed all the way to December or January, causing extended oscillation in $3-$10 range as shown here. Then the duration of wave II correction since July $10 high might rival duration of wave I run up from mid-December 2019 until July 2020. This week ended with a drop back into $3s in what looks like a minor wave iv correction with a wave v into mid-$5s expected next week or so, to be followed by another correction toward $4. For the good of the country, we all hope for quicker action by the government to prove out the promise of leronlimab with lives saved this fall and a quicker path to double digits, but it's not clear whether rational actors are still at the helm.
OTC:CYDYLong
by pythagoras
💸 CYDY Trade Plan 8/31-9/11 💸 (Penny Stock)Current Price @3.40 Found support @2.86 and 2.68 Long -Holding above @3.60 bullish , PT @3.81, @3.98 (hard resistance), and @4.90 above that. -Unless we gap over @4.01 and break over the daily resistance trend line we will most likely see CYDY get shorted to the ground. Most likely into the @2.1 to @1.5 gap fill range. Short -Leaning Bearish as the market naturally wants to fill in any gaps. -Watch the resistance trendline to hold on the daily. -Breaking under @3.20 bearish , PT @3.03, @2.63, and 2.13 - Holding @2.73 under we'll most likely see the gap filled from @2.1 to @1.5
OTC:CYDYShort
by Kindredd
1
CYDY correction baked w/5 micros down in 4.25-4.45 region. CYDY has completed 5 micro waves down from i 6.8 area to ii 4.4 area. This should be launching point towards teens from next week's topline efficacy report for Phase II mild/moderate COVID trial. Nader has already hinted that statistically significant positive results will be presented for several meaningful secondary endpoints, if not the loosely defined fever+cough at 14 days primary endpoint. Nader has repeatedly explained to bashers that Phase II trials are exploratory in the sense of looking broadly for ways (endpoints) in which the drug is efficacious, normally to be followed by more stringent Phase III re-examination of a newly selected primary endpoint. After reveal and public dissemination of these Phase II efficacy findings, which nervous nellies have doubted will ever come, will be another period of handwringing over whether FDA will be willing to grant emergency approval for statistically significant results from a small 85-person Phase II study. This handwringing should play out in our wave iv retest of $10 region to be followed by a wave v to at least $16 upon positive resolution.
OTC:CYDYLong
by pythagoras
Did CYDY $10 run set pace for even larger bullish trend channel?After it's 10-day run to $10, CYDY did not hold expected support at $4.6. That turned out to be just A wave in ABC correction to $2.8 on unexpected FDA-imposed delay in HIV Combo BLA application. That was our most glaring miss in this series of CYDY projections. At least we see strong A=C proportionality suggesting the correction completed Monday the 13th: A=$10-$4.6=5.4 and C=$8-$2.86=5.14, though perfect proportionality would have taken price down to $2.6 CEO Nader said on Friday that data from Phase II mild/moderate COVID blind trial of 87 patients on leronlimab had been entered and locked but will take a few days to analyze. Assuming: 1) results are released late this week or early next, and 2) results are sufficiently positive to cause widespread speculation about FDA emergency approval in August, Here's a bullish fractal path resuming strong share price growth at the pace set by the parabolic run to $10 -- which may have been just wave 1 of III towards $16-20. It's not possible to create this projection from chart technicals alone -- we're combining the expected timing and bullish bias of upcoming news events with experience of how bullish fractal patterns evolve. Take this with a grain of salt -- if results are weaker than expected price may yet retest $2.6. On the other hand, none of us has seen how traders react to solid evidence of a highly effective treatment for an 8-month old worldwide pandemic. There could be crazy spikes into much higher double digits.
OTC:CYDYLong
by pythagoras
1