IMPUY (METALS play)this stock just broke out of it's recently formed base, and has major major upside.
this move is expected to take place along side platinum's breakout move
IMPUY trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of IMPLATS(IMP)Impala Platinum Holdings (IMP), commonly known as Implats, is the world's third-largest producer of platinum group metals (PGMs). The company has faced significant challenges over the past seven years, primarily due to aggressive union action and legislative uncertainty in South Africa. The CEO has indicated that Implats is focused on developing a portfolio of long-life, low-cost, shallow, modern, mechanized mining assets, similar to the strategy pursued by Anglo American Platinum over the past decade.
The market for platinum itself has been adversely affected by a reduction in demand for auto catalysts, particularly for diesel trucks. While palladium and rhodium continue to have strong markets, platinum has been oversupplied on global markets, leading to downward pressure on prices. Implats has been working to diversify and grow its production, particularly from its operations in Zimbabwe, where it expects a 14% increase in production with the Mupani shaft coming on stream in 2022. The company's recent acquisition of Canadian operations is also expected to contribute to increased production.
On 20th July 2023, Implats announced that it had acquired 56.52% of RB Plats as a result of its mandatory offer. Northam Platinum subsequently decided to sell its 34.5% holding in RB Plats to Implats, further consolidating Implats' position. On 28th June 2022, the company reached a significant milestone by securing a 5-year wage deal with its major union, the Association of Mine Workers and Construction Union (AMCU), for an average wage increase of 6.6% per annum.
However, the company faced a tragic incident on 28th November 2023, when 11 people died, and 75 were hospitalized following an incident at its No. 11 shaft in Rustenburg. This incident highlighted the ongoing challenges in ensuring safety in deep-level mining operations.
In its results for the year ended 30th June 2024, Implats reported a significant decline in financial performance, with revenue down 18.9% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 87.8%. The company attributed these results to significantly weaker US dollar sales revenue, which offset the benefits of strong operational performance during the fiscal year. The sharp drop in average palladium and rhodium prices, despite higher sales volumes, compressed operating margins and free cash flow.
Technically, Implats' share price was in a downward trend from March 2022 to March 2024, driven by lower PGM prices, increased operational costs, and the impact of loadshedding. Although the share price has recovered somewhat since March 2024, it remains highly volatile, reflecting the inherent risks associated with commodity shares, particularly in the PGM sector.
Impala Platinum new target now UP to R126.27M Formation is now turning into a W Formation
We never had the break down and now it is looking up, along with the platinum price.
So we need to adjust course.
Now we are waiting for a breakout above the Neckline of the W Formation then the next target will be around R126.27
Nature: High Probability
Price>20
Price>200
UPDATE: IMP continues to disappoint with the commoditiesM Formation is easily turning into a Triple Top
Price<20
Price>200
Need to wait for breakout for the confirmation. Then the first target will be at R38.07.
It's a bearish outlook for platinum and is a downer for the commodity, but hopefully we get a stock market run up to counter for the drop.
IMP low probability for IMP but still more likely to break downM Formation turning into Triple Top with IMP.
I am hesitant making this analysis as the JSE is showing strong upside to come along with international markets.
But the charts are still saying the price is likely to test demand to the upside and if it's weak this thing can drop big time down to R38.00.
We definitely need to wait for the breakout and a strong down candle. But that's what the analysis says.
Price<20
Price>200
Need to wait for breakout
Target R38.07
Impala Platinum showing downside to come to R53.22M Formation seems to be forming on Implats as well Anglo AMerican PLats.
Platinum is showing downside to come and so it will bring down the companies with it.
We just need to wait for the breakout to the downside for extra conformation.
Price<20
Price>200
Target R53.22
Impala PLatinum fantastic for upside to R170.35With the PLatinum price running up very nicely and setting it's for a rally - JSE PLatinum stocks are looking almost perfect to buy.
We have a Cup and Handle with a breakout above and confirmed. We'll need to wait for Monday's Open price to confirm above the Breakout.
NATURE: HPT (High Probability Trade)
Price>20
Price>200
Target R170.35
Great trade analysis for the system!
Our opinion on the current state of IMPLATS(IMP)Impala Platinum Holdings (Implats), ranked as the world's third-largest producer of platinum group metals (PGMs), has faced numerous challenges over the past seven years, including aggressive union action and legislative uncertainty. The company's strategic focus, as stated by the CEO, is on developing a portfolio of long-life, low-cost, shallow, mechanized mining assets, echoing a shift similar to that of Anglo American Platinum over the past decade.
The demand for platinum, particularly in auto catalysts for diesel trucks, has waned recently, contributing to an oversupply in the global market. However, the markets for palladium and rhodium remain robust. In an effort to boost production, Implats is expanding its operations in Zimbabwe with the Mupani shaft expected to increase production by 14% from 2022. Additionally, the company's acquisition of a Canadian operation is anticipated to further increase its output.
Recent significant developments for Implats include the acquisition of a 56.52% stake in RB Plats, following a mandatory offer, with Northam opting to sell its 34.5% holding to Implats. This acquisition marks a strategic move to consolidate its position in the industry.
Labor relations have shown signs of stabilization with the company reaching a five-year wage agreement with the Association of Mine Workers and Construction Union (AMCU) in June 2022, securing an average annual wage increase of 6.6%.
However, the company has also faced severe setbacks, such as the tragic incident at its No. 11 shaft in Rustenburg in November 2023, where 11 people died and 75 were hospitalized, highlighting ongoing operational risks.
Financially, Implats reported a decline in its latest results for the six months ending 31st December 2023, with revenue falling by 24.9% and HEPS plummeting by 77.9%. Despite an 18% increase in Group 6E production to 1.9 million ounces and a 12% rise in sales volumes, the substantial drop in PGM prices severely impacted profitability. The company emphasized that while production and sales volumes have seen notable gains and cost controls have been effective, the dramatic decline in PGM prices has significantly affected interim profitability.
In the first quarter update of 2024, Implats reported a 16% increase in 6E production volumes but noted that margins remain compressed. The company is actively pursuing measures to ensure each operation is capable of generating sustainable free cash flow throughout the PGM cycle.
Technically, the share price of Implats has been in a downward trend since March 2022, driven by the lower PGM prices, rising costs, and challenges related to load shedding. This trend underscores the volatility of the commodity sector and the high-risk nature of investing in PGM stocks like Implats.
IMP.JSE Impala Platinum Trend Cloud and FIB Study.Impala Platinum's last 1 Month recovery has been stellar to say the Least.
Just goes to show that CONVICTION does Work for those that are Patient.
I've plotted the Fibonacci Levels to see where we could encounter possible Resistance.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Regards Graham.
PV=FV/(1+r)^t Present Value = Future Value / (1 + R Rate of Return ) ^ Time.
IMP: counter-testing the bearish trend.Remains a very risky trade.
The insert is the angle of the trend since the start of 2023.
The last part of the price action crossed above the angle trend line, hinting at a possible counter-testing.
Furthermore, a price action above 6800 supports such a bullish trend.
Further bullish confirmation for a break above 7300.
The target price is set at 7900 (its 50% Fibonacci retracement level).
The stop-loss price is set at 6300.
Our opinion on the current state of IMPImpala Platinum Holdings (Implats) ranks as the world's third-largest producer of platinum group metals (PGMs), navigating challenges including aggressive union actions and legislative uncertainties over the past seven years. The company's strategy, as stated by its CEO, focuses on developing a portfolio of long-life, low-cost, shallow, modern, mechanized mining assets, mirroring the approach Anglo American Platinum has adopted for a decade. The demand for platinum, particularly for use in auto catalysts for diesel trucks, has recently diminished, leading to a surplus of platinum on global markets despite strong markets for palladium and rhodium.
Implats plans to increase its production in Zimbabwe by 14% with the Mupani shaft becoming operational in 2022, and expects production boosts from its newly acquired Canadian operation as well. On 20th July 2023, the company announced its acquisition of a 56.52% stake in RB Plats following a mandatory offer, with Northam also deciding to sell its 34.5% holding to Implats. A significant development occurred on 28th June 2022 when Implats secured a 5-year wage agreement with the Association of Mine Workers and Construction Union (AMCU), settling on an average annual wage increase of 6.6%.
For the year ending 30th June 2023, Implats reported a 2% increase in group 6E production but saw refined production decrease by 4% and sales drop by 6%. Revenue per 6E ounce in rand terms fell by 4%, with the company citing load curtailment at its South African and joint venture operations and severe load shedding across Zimbabwe's national grid in March 2023 as significant factors. This resulted in an estimated loss of 36,000 6E ounces of production across its southern African operations.
In the quarter ending 30th September 2023, the company reported a 21% increase in 6E production, attributing volume gains as a counter to persistent inflationary pressures and minimizing the operational impact of load curtailment. However, tragedy struck on 28th November 2023 when an incident at its No. 11 shaft in Rustenburg resulted in 11 fatalities and 75 hospitalizations.
Looking ahead to the six months ending 31st December 2023, Implats anticipates a significant decrease in headline earnings per share (HEPS), estimating a fall of between 76% and 83%. This projection is largely due to a 37% reduction in US dollar revenue per 6E ounce sold, although somewhat mitigated by an 8% depreciation in the rand's value. The share price trend of Implats has been downward since March 2022, primarily due to declining PGM prices, rising costs, and the impact of loadshedding, highlighting its status as a volatile commodity share.
$JSEIMP - Impala Platinum: 6430 Invalidated, Now What?See link below for previous analysis.
The bears re-emerged and took price below 6430.
My conviction was not great that this would be thee bottom.
This is the beauty with the EWP, you know when you are wrong.
An update of the wave count shows the decline from 10129 to 6430 as an ending diagonal for wave of wave 3 and the bounce as wave 4.
The entire decline from 23889 is an extended impulse which is now in its fifth and final move in wave 5.
Caution: in commodities, fifth waves can be very large, even larger than third waves. I do not see that being the case here as wave 3 is extremely over-extended.
How much lower the stock can go is anyone's guess but at current levels I believe the stock could be very close to a bottom so I will not look for shorts.
Our opinion on the current state of IMPmpala Platinum Holdings (IMP), commonly referred to as Implats, holds the distinction of being the world's third-largest producer of platinum group metals (PGM). Over the past seven years, the company has grappled with challenges stemming from aggressive union actions and legislative uncertainty.
The CEO has articulated a strategic focus on the development of a portfolio of mining assets characterized by qualities such as long life, low cost, shallow depth, modernity, and mechanization. This strategic direction aligns closely with the approach adopted by Anglo American Platinum over the past decade.
However, the market for platinum itself has been adversely affected by a recent decline in demand for autocatalysts, particularly in the context of diesel trucks. In contrast, palladium and rhodium continue to thrive in robust markets, while platinum faces oversupply issues in global markets.
In response to these dynamics, Implats has laid out plans to boost its production from Zimbabwe by 14%, driven by the Mupani shaft's commencement in 2022. Additionally, the company's newly acquired Canadian operation is poised to contribute to increased production.
A significant milestone occurred on July 20, 2023, when Implats announced its acquisition of 56.52% of RB Plats through a mandatory offer. Simultaneously, Northam announced its decision to sell 34.5% of its holdings to Implats.
On June 28, 2022, Implats reached a pivotal labor agreement, securing a five-year wage deal with its major union, the Association of Mine Workers and Construction Union (AMCU). This agreement entails an average wage increase of 6.6% per annum.
In its financial results for the year ending on June 30, 2023, Implats reported a 2% increase in group 6E production. However, refined production witnessed a 4% decline, and sales experienced a 6% decrease. Additionally, the company noted a 4% decline in Rand revenue per 6E ounce. The company attributed some of these challenges to load curtailment at South African managed and joint venture operations during the period. Furthermore, severe load shedding was experienced across the Zimbabwean national grid in March 2023, leading to an estimated loss of 36,000 6E ounces of production across southern African managed and JV operations during that period.
In a production report for the three months ending on September 30, 2023, Implats reported a substantial 21% increase in 6E production. This growth was driven by volume gains that helped offset persistent industry-wide inflationary pressures, and the operational impact of load curtailment was also minimized during this period.
However, on November 28, 2023, Implats reported a tragic incident at its No. 11 shaft in Rustenburg, resulting in the loss of 11 lives and hospitalization of 75 individuals.
In a trading statement for the six months ending on December 31, 2023, the company estimated that its headline earnings per share (HEPS) would decline by at least 20%. From a technical standpoint, the company's share price has been on a downward trend since March 2022, primarily influenced by lower PGM prices, increased operational costs, and issues related to load shedding. Notably, Implats remains a volatile commodity share, susceptible to market fluctuations and external factors affecting the PGM industry.
Impala Platinum Daily 70% Incoming!This stock is in a good position to give us some healthy gains. First we need to gain the internal structure going higher than 8400 at least, then hold 7700 to continue the move to 12000, else it will fail and create a new low, local to a higher time frame. But this spot is key at the moment, keep a close eye from tomorrow morning open...
$JSEIMP - Impala Platinum: 6430 The Key Level To WatchSee link below for previous analysis.
Impala traded below 7002 as anticipated from the last analysis.
The stock caught a strong bid at 6430, down 79% from the March 2022 high.
The move from 6430 looks impulsive even though it is relatively small but it can be wave (i) of a bigger correction or start of a new bull trend.
I am neutral to bullish on this one and I will be watching the 6430 price level closely.
UPDATE: Impala Platinum ready to break out of bear channel?Implats has been on a downtrend for years.
Recently it's formed a falling Wedge. But it looks like the support level remains to be very strong for the bulls.
The price is back to the top of the channel and now we need a strong breakout.
The PLatinum market is looking bullish and if it follows through it will send many companies up. But we need that confirmation and stronger signals of upside to come before we take action.
Then first target for Implats will be at R120.00
$JSEIMP - Impala Platinum: 7002 Giving Ominous VibesSee link below for previous analysis
Impala has traded lower as forecasted and I have updated the wave count.
I am not convinced that 7002 is the low and with an alternative count, the entire move from 19068 to 7002 could be wave 3 as the current wave 4 looks very small.
I will not be surprised if Impala continues lower but I will sit on my hands and allow price to play its hand.
Our opinion on the current state of IMPImpala Platinum Holdings (IMP), or Implats, is the world's third largest platinum group metals (PGM) producer. It has been suffering over the past 7 years from aggressive union action and legislative uncertainty. The CEO says that they are focused "...on developing a portfolio of long-life, low-cost, shallow, modern, mechanised mining assets". This is similar to what Anglo American Platinum has been doing for the past 10 years. The market for platinum itself has been damaged by a reduction in auto catalyst demand recently, especially for diesel trucks. Palladium and Rhodium still have strong markets, but platinum has been oversupplied on world markets. The company plans to grow its production from Zimbabwe by 14% due to the Mupani shaft coming on stream in 2022. Its newly acquired Canadian operation should also increase production. On 20th July 2023 the company announced that it had acquired 56,52% of RB Plats as a result of its mandatory offer. Northam also announced its decision to sell its 34,5% of its holding to Implats. On the 28th of June 2022, the company announced that it had reached a 5-year wage deal with its major union, the Association of Mine Workers and Construction Union (AMCU) for an average wage increase of 6,6% per annum. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported group 6E production up 2%, but refined production down 4% and sales down 6%. Rand revenue per 6E ounce declined by 4%. The company said, "In addition to load curtailment at South African managed and JV operations during the period, severe load shedding was experienced across the Zimbabwean national grid in March 2023. In total, Implats estimates 36 000 6E ounces of production were foregone across southern African managed and JV operations during the period". In a production report on the 3 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported 6E production up 21%. The company said, "Volume gains offset persistent industry-wide inflationary pressures and the operational impact of load curtailment was also minimised in the period". On 28th November 2023 the company reported that 11 people had died and 75 were hospitalised following and incident at its No. 11 shaft in Rustenburg. Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022 mainly as a result of lower PGM prices, increased costs and loadshedding. It remains a volatile commodity share.
Implats support in check and ready to break up to R128.76Impala Platinum has clearly been moving in a down channel.
It's failed to break the support level at R72.29.
This means, we could be getting some buying momentum and demand, which will drive the price up.
I would wait for a solid breakout above the channel, which will signal a more promising buy.
Then my next target will be R128.76
IMP.JSE Impala Plat Possible IH&S Seen.Impala Platinum could be printing an Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern as seen on this simple line Chart.
I trust this plays out for those Invested, as we all look for some good news.
Use your own discretion when Investing and get Expert Advice.
Smash that Rocket Boost Button to show your Appreciation for my Study.
Regards Graham.
Implats down channel fooled us all but not again!To think that in January 2023, IMplats was trading at R235.52.
Today, in November we're looking at R73.12.
And yet, it's been an imperceptible downward journey, that even I am too embarassed to realise today.
Hindsight is a Biscuit!
Well anyway, the new downward channel is showing more downside to come with volatile (jumpy) highs and lows which can easily stop out any trader along the way.
But all in all, the target seems to be going to R44.00
I'm bearish...
Our opinion on the current state of IMPImpala Platinum Holdings (IMP), or Implats, is the world's third largest platinum group metals (PGM) producer. It has been suffering over the past 7 years from aggressive union action and legislative uncertainty. The CEO says that they are focused "...on developing a portfolio of long-life, low-cost, shallow, modern, mechanised mining assets". This is similar to what Anglo American Platinum has been doing for the past 10 years. The market for platinum itself has been damaged by a reduction in auto catalyst demand recently, especially for diesel trucks. Palladium and Rhodium still have strong markets, but platinum has been oversupplied on world markets. The company plans to grow its production from Zimbabwe by 14% due to the Mupani shaft coming on stream in 2022. Its newly acquired Canadian operation should also increase production. On 20th July 2023 the company announced that it had acquired 56,52% of RB Plats as a result of its mandatory offer. Northam also announced its decision to sell its 34,5% of its holding to Implats. On the 28th of June 2022, the company announced that it had reached a 5-year wage deal with its major union, the Association of Mine Workers and Construction Union (AMCU) for an average wage increase of 6,6% per annum. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported group 6E production up 2%, but refined production down 4% and sales down 6%. Rand revenue per 6E ounce declined by 4%. The company said, "In addition to load curtailment at South African managed and JV operations during the period, severe load shedding was experienced across the Zimbabwean national grid in March 2023. In total, Implats estimates 36 000 6E ounces of production were foregone across southern African managed and JV operations during the period". In a production report on the 3 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported 6E production up 21%. The company said, "Volume gains offset persistent industry-wide inflationary pressures and the operational impact of load curtailment was also minimised in the period". Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022 mainly as a result of lower PGM prices, increased costs and loadshedding. It remains a volatile commodity share.
Our opinion on the current state of IMPImpala Platinum Holdings (IMP), or Implats, is the world's third largest platinum group metals (PGM) producer. It has been suffering over the past 7 years from aggressive union action and legislative uncertainty. The CEO says that they are focused "...on developing a portfolio of long-life, low-cost, shallow, modern, mechanised mining assets". This is similar to what Anglo American Platinum has been doing for the past 10 years. The market for platinum itself has been damaged by a reduction in auto catalyst demand recently, especially for diesel trucks. Palladium and Rhodium still have strong markets, but platinum has been oversupplied on world markets. The company plans to grow its production from Zimbabwe by 14% due to the Mupani shaft coming on stream in 2022. Its newly acquired Canadian operation should also increase production. During the corona pandemic the share dropped to as low as R55.50 but is now trading at R176.42. On 20th July 2023 the company announced that it had acquired 56,52% of RB Plats as a result of its mandatory offer. Northam also announced its decision to sell its 34,5% of its holding to Implats. On the 28th of June 2022, the company announced that it had reached a 5-year wage deal with its major union, the Association of Mine Workers and Construction Union (AMCU) for an average wage increase of 6,6% per annum. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported group 6E production up 2%, but refined production down 4% and sales down 6%. Rand revenue per 6E ounce declined by 4%. The company said, "In addition to load curtailment at South African managed and JV operations during the period, severe load shedding was experienced across the Zimbabwean national grid in March 2023. In total, Implats estimates 36 000 6E ounces of production were foregone across southern African managed and JV operations during the period". In a production report on the 3 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported 6E production up 21%. The company said, "Volume gains offset persistent industry-wide inflationary pressures and the operational impact of load curtailment was also minimised in the period". Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since March 2022 mainly as a result of lower PGM prices, increased costs and loadshedding. It remains a volatile commodity share.
