3️⃣ Altseason and the US "Crypto-Reserve"3️⃣ Altseason and the US "Crypto-Reserve"
❗️ Disclaimer: This idea is only a part of an article with a forecast for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market for 2025-2028. To fully and completely understand what is being discussed here, please refer to the root idea via the link:
1️⃣ Main Idea: Analysis of US Treasury Documents
TradingView recently added an interesting new ticker: $CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSBTC. It represents the ratio of the total market capitalization of the top-125 cryptocurrencies, excluding the top-10 by capitalization (OTHERS), to the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC).
What does it measure?
OTHERS (Total capitalization of other altcoins): This is the aggregated market capitalization of cryptocurrencies that are not in the top-10 by capitalization. In other words, it's a metric that allows tracking the dynamics of "small" and "medium" altcoins, excluding the influence of the largest players (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other large altcoins in the top-10).
BTC (Bitcoin Market Capitalization): This is a standard metric showing the total value of all circulating Bitcoins.
Thus, OTHERSBTC shows how "small" and "medium" altcoins generally relate to Bitcoin in terms of market capitalization. Why is this needed? This ticker is an important indicator for assessing the "altcoin season" and the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market:
⬆️ Growth in OTHERSBTC: Means that the market capitalization of "other" altcoins is growing faster than Bitcoin's market capitalization (or falling slower). This often indicates the beginning or continuation of an "altcoin season," when investors start shifting funds from Bitcoin to riskier but potentially more profitable altcoins. This can be a sign that the market is becoming more risk-on.
⬇️ Decline in OTHERSBTC: Indicates that Bitcoin is growing faster (or falling slower) than "other" altcoins. This may suggest that investors prefer safer assets, or that Bitcoin's dominance is strengthening. This often happens during market corrections or when investors seek refuge in Bitcoin.
📈 Analysis of the main chart: OTHERSBTC
The fact that the OTHERSBTC index has been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2022, I think, is not difficult to understand:
A decline in OTHERSBTC directly means that the "altcoin season" has not fully arrived or has been absent since the beginning of 2022.
For a full-fledged "altseason," OTHERSBTC should show sustained growth, meaning that "small" and "medium" altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin in terms of capitalization growth. This is not happening yet.
Current market state: The decline in OTHERSBTC since 2022 confirms that the market has been in a bear phase, and after that – in a recovery phase where Bitcoin leads, and altcoins (especially those not in the top-10) are recovering slower or not at all.
Thus, the decline in OTHERSBTC since the beginning of 2022 is a direct reflection of the bear market, decreased risk appetite, and increased Bitcoin dominance during a sideways period for the rest of the crypto market. For a potential "altseason," we will need to observe a change in this trend, when CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSBTC begins to show sustained growth.
✴️ The Concept of a US "Crypto-Reserve": Not Exclusion, but Absorption
In the face of an impending economic storm and the inevitable "cleansing" of the crypto market, it becomes clear that the US government does not intend to completely destroy digital assets. Instead, a multi-step strategy is being developed for their integration and subordination under its control. This involves not just a set of rules, but the formation of a full-fledged "National Crypto-Reserve."
This concept is not new. The history of finance shows that "private currencies" that do not meet reliability requirements always lead to instability and ultimately are either absorbed or replaced by regulated government equivalents. (As TBAC notes, "history shows that 'private money' that does not meet the requirements of NQA leads to financial instability and, as such, is highly undesirable" – DA&TM, p. 3). When Bitcoin collapses under the pressure of a global economic crisis and massive liquidations in 2025, and "high-beta" altcoins bleed out, the US government and its affiliated institutions will begin to buy them up at a discount. The goal is not to destroy digital assets, but to accumulate them in this "National Crypto-Reserve" .
And here lies another, deeper meaning: this process is not just about buying assets; it's about testing and mastering new technologies on "live hamsters," meaning the current participants of the crypto market. This entire "Wild West" of decentralized finance, DeFi, NFTs, and rapidly changing altcoins serves as a giant laboratory. It is here, under real market conditions and the pressure of huge capital, that the system studies how blockchains, smart contracts, consensus mechanisms work, how quickly "digital" infections spread, and how effectively to manage liquidity in decentralized environments. All these experiments are, in essence, paid for by the crypto- hamsters -enthusiasts themselves, while the state and the global establishment receive invaluable data for building their future digital economy.
This "soup-kit" of digital assets for the US Crypto-Reserve will include, first and foremost, Bitcoin as the primary "digital gold" – an asset that TBAC itself already calls a "store of value." This will allow the government not only to control a significant portion of Bitcoin but also to use it in future "tokenized" financial products. In addition to BTC, the reserve will include carefully selected altcoins under US jurisdiction or of strategic importance for the new, controlled digital landscape. Theoretically, these could be assets that have clear issuers or are centralized enough for easy "absorption" and regulation. This list may include: ETH, XRP, SOL, HBAR, XCH, LINK, UNI, DOGE, OP, AVAX, MATIC, AAVE, LDO, BAT, NEAR, SUI, ALGO, ADA, and others that may be deemed "best of the best" in their understanding.
Thus, the "crypto-reserve" will become the foundation for a new digital financial system , where control and stability will first be ensured by the "nationalization" of key digital assets. This will allow the state not only to manage significant volumes of digital funds but also to use them for future "tokenized" financial products that will be issued on "private, permissioned blockchains managed by central banks" (see DA&TM pp. 7 and 14). This is how "wild" crypto will be tamed and integrated into the traditional system, losing its decentralized essence but gaining "legitimacy" under state supervision.
📈 Analysis of the chart: OTHERS
In this capitalization index, the value of the top-10 coins was removed from the top-125. It is also quite informative and convincing, showing that the capitalization is -50% below its 2021 highs.
I will also add a few altcoin charts here, namely: DOT, NEAR, ETH. For all charts, a further decline of another -70% from current levels is expected, approximately by early 2026.
📈 ETH Chart. Forecast 2025-2028
📈 NEAR Chart. Forecast 2025-2028
📈 DOT Chart. Forecast 2025-2028
📊 General chart description
Ethereum and NEAR behave very similarly, only CRYPTO:NEARUSD is more volatile and does not hold up as well as ETH. INDEX:ETHUSD today is -47% below its ATH, while NEAR is -88%. Nevertheless, they are at least roughly in the middle of the trading range since 2021, whereas CRYPTO:DOTUSD look much weaker than the top coins, and have been languishing at the bottom for about two years.
Moreover, after a thorough analysis of current prices and historical highs of 2021-2022 for coins from the top-100 that existed during that period, very few of them are trading today above or near their 2021-2022 peaks. List of coins from the top-100 that existed in 2021-2022 and whose current price has updated the ATH of that period:
XRP (Ripple): Its current price of $2.2 exceeds its 2021 ATH (~$1.96).
UNUS SED LEO (LEO): Price $8.65 exceeds its 2022 ATH (~$8.14 in Feb. 2022).
TRON (TRX): Price $0.266 exceeds its 2021 ATH (~$0.18).
BNB (Binance Coin): Price $660 is very close to its 2021 ATH (~$690).
SOL (Solana): Because the list is so small, I had to partially count Solana, as it indeed updated its 2021 high at $260, but today trades at -45% lower, around $160.
Thus, if we strictly adhere to the criterion of "trading above 2021-2022 highs," then out of the top-100 that existed during that period, it's only five, again, FIVE alts! The bottom line is that Bitcoin, two native exchange tokens (BNB, LEO), the "Ethereum killer" TRON, the Trojan horse XRP, and let's include SOL, have updated their 2021-2022 ATHs and are trading above or near their historical highs out of ALL TOP-100 coins. Only some alts from the top-100 are somewhere in the middle of the three-year trading range, and the rest have been looking for the bottom for two years.
While influencers have been talking about some altcoin season for the third year, ATOM today is -90% below its 2022 ATH! And NEAR is -88%, DOT is -92%, and CHIA is -99% from its ATH, and this list can go on and on. That's all you need to know about the so-called "alt season" and "bull market" in crypto over the last three years.
❗️ Disclaimer: This idea is only a part of an article with a forecast for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market for 2025-2028. To learn more, refer to the root idea via the link:
1️⃣ Main Idea: Analysis of US Treasury Documents
