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PALLADIUM (US$/OZ)

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PALLADIUM trade ideas

Sell opportunity arises - PalladiumNot a lot specific believe or view behind this post, apart from technicals. Over the last few weeks we were trading inside a triangle, mostly shaped by a huge collapse early in march and recovering afterwards. We broke out of the triangle last week. Palladium tends to trade down in a weakening economy, which is where we are heading given all the recent news. We had lower highs, higher lows, then breakout of the triangle, trading down and setting now low, retesting upside now and we have some EMA's hanging, together with the falling trendline. Wait till Palladium enter's the red zone, and sell with your own prefered SL/TP. Trading is not about copying but about forming your own opinion.
PShort
by pptw
Palladium demand destructionThanks for viewing, Some view platinum and palladium not as investment petals for various reasons, others disagree. I prefer (in rank) 1. gold (bullish), 2, silver (neutral), platinum (bearish). Platinum makes the list because I can purchase it in small increments - while palladium was only available in a minimum of 1oz coins (which had high premiums - as coins in general do). That said, I expect platinum to also show future weakness - potentially going sub $350ish - which is okay as it is a strategic metal that is relevant to defence applications among other things. The reasons I expect weakness in demand for Platinum (currently oversupplied) are the same as for Palladium (under-supply); Palladium has had a huge run since 2008 - peaking at 16.5x and now at 10.5x over that time period. The major driver was a supply demand mis-match caused from strong demand from auto-catalysts for petrol vehicles. All that has changed dramatically in a short period. Demand has been destroyed for new motor vehicles. Light vehicle sales were down 34.6% in March www.marklines.com and that drop will be over-shadowed by the April drop. Hopefully, these drops are short-term and will bounce back shortly - like vehicle demand in China did - although estimates vary on the time-frame. I suspect we will see near-term demand reduced from 2019 levels for all of 2020. Medium and long term factors are both negative for those expecting internal combustion light vehicles production levels to bounce bank to new highs. The most major impact will come from an unfolding de-leveraging. For those that blame the health crisis for 100% of the economic woes, please cast your eye a few months back when we had; - an inverted yield curve, - downgrades of global and regional GDP growth announced by the IMF, World Bank, BOJ, ECB, Fed etc etc, - Cautions on the level of sovereign, corporate, and household debt levels, - Interest rates in the US repo market spiking to over 11%, - The Fed started QE4, or what they called "definitely not QE4", - Large investment banks were announcing they were advising their clients to sell US equities because they saw limited upside remaining, - The US continued on its longest and weakest economic expansion in history. My general view is that this health crisis with its associated economic contraction brought forward (and exacerbated) what was already just around the corner - a recession. Any deleveraging event was always going to have to be more significant than 2008-9 simply because debt levels are so much greater now - while incomes have stayed flat. So this will necessarily impact on discretionary consumer demand (and availability of consumer credit) for some time. Price targets; 1300 should provide some support, stronger support at the $1140, and $1100 levels. 1:1 extension of the recent steep drop at $1060. This level may cause a strong bounce in 6 - 12 months (depending on industrial demand pick-up) - but after that who knows. The trajectory now seems to be away from diesel vehicles, especially since the VW scandal (which hasn't yet fully unfolded to reveal just how wide-spread the massaging of emissions results among the industry as a whole). Medium to long-term, there is every possibility that Palladium's new home will be below $1100. Protect those funds everyone
TVC:PALLADIUMShort
by flyinkiwi10
1
PALLADIUM 1D DESCENDING TRIANGLEDescending Triangles are repeatable trading chart patterns. Descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend. Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern. Whatever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart). Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place. Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement. When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern. Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close. 1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line). a - Breakout candle must be 100% of the average volume for a full position size. b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+) 2 - Enter two trades. 3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR. 4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR. 5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price. 6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven. 7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price. *8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade *9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open. a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size. b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open. c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade. d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
OANDA:XPDUSDShort
by Tradingstrategyguides
3-DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS CONTINUATION 3We will continue from the last post. Putting it all together, I would like to remind us that The diagonal of a square = 1.4142 x the value of the side The diagonal also represents the next energy level or the side of the next square in the growth spiral. In 2-dimensional view, the next Vector value is measured from the midpoint of the previous diagonal or energy level. Please check the snapshot for the description Also, the area of a triangle = 1/2 x Base x Height By Pythagoras, Hypotenuse² = Base² + Height² Now, the first Cycle ABC completed in 1072 days If we square out 1072 by 1072 sides the diagonal will be = 1072 x 1.4142 1072 x 1.4142 = 1516 units That means the side for our next square which is also the diagonal of the lower energy square is equal to 1516 units for time and 1516 units for price Point E was 1560 days and point F completed in 1507 days Next square is 1516 by 1516 Diagonal = 1516 x 1.4142 = 2144 units To measure the price level for this units, we measure from the price midpoint of the original square 1072 by 1072 1072 / 2 = 536 536 + 158 = 694 The original square has bottom at 158 and top at 1233. The midpoint from 158 to 1233 is 694 price level. If we measure 2144 points from the midpoint = 694 + 2144 = 2838 This is exactly the level where price made a high on 27th February and that is the top of the complete growth process 1072 x 2 = 2144 To further show that the first growth process was completed Area of triangle = 1/2 x Base x Height For triangle ABC, Base BC = 394 units. 394/2 = 197 By Pythagoras, Height = root( 1140² - 197²) = 1122.85 Then Area ABC = 1/2 x 394 x 1122.85 = 221201.45 units For triangle DEF, Base DE = 663, 663/2 = 331.5 Height = root(2839² - 331.5²) = 2819.57 Area DEF = 1/2 x 663 x 2819.57 = 934690.62 units From observation its clear that area DEF is 4.236 times the size of area ABC 221201.45 x 4.236 = 937009.34 units 4.236 ratio expansion shows completed growth. The correction FG is 0.618 retracement of the 2144 square 2144 x 0.618 = 1324.992 High, 2838 - 1324.992 = 1513 (Price made a low at 1496) Now this are the critical points to consider, We may recall from the previous analysis where the 3rd base FG was 1386 units and we calculated its sides to be 5740 units Notice the order of expansion in the Palladium structure Base 1 = BC = 394 Base 2 = DE = 663 (394 x 1.667 ) Base 3 = FG = 1386 ( 663 x 2.09) so the order here is 1 - 1.667 - 2 For the sides AC = 1140 (1st square of 12) EF = 2839 (this is the face-value same as 288 or 2nd square of 12) GH = calculated to be 5740 ( 288 + 288 = 576, the face-value for 3rd square of 12) so the order here is then, 144 - 288 - 576 Though the sides for the 3rd triangle are yet to form, the base has given a clue as to the magnitude of the vector to expect. Since the vector is a function of price and time, it means that if time stretches then price will have a small margin to move, otherwise we will have a bull run over a short period of time. The clue for time range is 2144 - 1507 = 637 days Currently we took our trade at 1550 price level and expecting a double top and then higher towards 3650 level if we break the current high. At the current price level, the price may move further down to correct 0.618 retracement of the recent swing high. Best entry for new trades is to wait for the retracement to complete for a reduced risk of margin. If you have any further questions for clarifications just post it in the comments and will be explained in detail. Any additions and contributions are also highly welcome
OANDA:XPDUSDLong
by Fairmont-Markets
3-DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS CONTINUATIONPlease ignore the first 2 posts that the values in the root brackets were missing. Sorry for the multiple posts. We will continue from the last post, we already established the vectors for triangle DEF in the previous analysis as Cycle DEF: Vector DE = root(498² + 438.32²) = 663 units DE is the base of triangle DEF and is 1.667 expansion of the first base BC 394 x 1.667 = 657 units (short of 6 units) Vector DF = root(1968² + 2005²) = 2809 units Vector EF = root(1507² + 2405.94²) = 2839 units DF and EF are also two sides of equal length and the base length DE as 663 units. Vector FG is the correction after the completion of the 2nd growth and also forms the base for the next triangle FG = root(1385.69² + 18²) = 1385.81 units Now we can see that the 3 triangle bases show successive growth Base 1 = BC = 394 units Base 2 = DE = 663 units (394 x 1.667 = 657, that is 1.667 expansion of BC) Base 3 = FG = 1386 units (663 x 2.09 = 1386, that is also 2.0 expansion of DE) Also the ratio of base to side for each successive triangle shows a growth pattern For triangle ABC, base to side = 1 : 3 Base BC = 394 Sides AB = 1103.36, and AC = 1140.35 394 x 2.9 = 1142 ( Approx. 1 : 3) Triangle DEF, base to sides = 1 : 4.236 Base DE = 663 Sides DF = 2809 and EF = 2839 663 x 4.236 = 2809 ( ratio = 1 : 4.236) Now the 3rd base FG which is 2.0 expansion of 663 has completed but the sides GH and GI/FH are yet to form in time. Our projections are that if the growth process continues then we can expect sides GH and GI/FH to be 5 times the value of the base vector AC or AB to maintain the 1,1,2,3,5,8... Fibonacci series AC = 1140 5 x 1140 = 5700 units (for GH and GI/FH) The ratio of Base to sides must also be maintained at 1 : 4.236 to match the vector expansion. ( Preferably 1 : 4.142) Triangle base = FG = 1386 units 1386 x 4.142 = 5741 ( approx = GH =5700) (The value 4.142 would be explained in next post) Please check next post for continuation... thanks
OANDA:XPDUSDLong
by Fairmont-Markets
PALLADIUM LONG TERM 3-DIMENSIONAL ANALYSISONE FROM OUR PRIVATE TRADES Today we would discuss the current price structure of the Palladium market. We would break the analysis into 3 parts in 3 different posts to make it simpler. All our calculations will be in 3-Dimensional to reveal the composite geometric figures in motion To begin with, lets remind ourselves that a golden triangle which is also an Isosceles triangle has two sides equal in length and a 3rd side which is the base. Radius Vector of a swing = Square root(Price ² + Time²) For Cycle ABC: Vector AB = root(703.5² + 850²) = 1103 units Vector BC = root(225² + 323²) = 394 units Vector AC = root(1075² + 380.5²) = 1140 units Notice that radius vectors AB and AC have approximately the same lengths and they form 2 sides of the golden triangle or an Isosceles triangle. Vector BC is the base of the triangle and is approximately 3 times the sides AB and AC . 394 * 2.9 = 1142 units Vector CD = root(373.22² + 1062²) = 1126 units CD is also approximately the same length with AB and completes the harmonic AB=CD pattern. Vector CD also defines the origin of the next growth phase or triangle DEF For Cycle DEF: Vector DE = root(498² + 438.32²) = 663 units DE is the base of triangle DEF and is 1.667 expansion of the first base BC 394 * 1.667 = 657 units (short of 6 units) Vector DF = root(1968² + 2005²) = 2809 units Vector EF = root(1507² + 2405.94²) = 2839 units The chart for DF and EF would be shown on next post but notice that vectors DF and EF are also two sides of equal length and the base is 663 units 663 * 4.236 = 2808.47 = DF 663 * 4.272 = 2832.24 = EF Now, this shows clearly that the sides of the 2nd triangle, DEF is 3 times the sides of the 1st triangle ABC and the base DE is 1.667 expansion of base BC . (Base DE and BC are shown in blue on the chart) AB = 1103 units AC = 1140 units DF = 2809 units EF = 2839 units The numbers 1, 2 and 3 are successive numbers in the Fibonacci series and the next number is 5. The base expansion is 1 : 1.667 and the next base should have a value of 2 for a complete growth spiral. Please check next post for continuation.
OANDA:XPDUSDLong
by Fairmont-Markets
PALLADIUM LONG TERM 3-DIMENSIONAL ANALYSISONE FROM OUR PRIVATE TRADES Today we would discuss the current price structure of the Palladium market. We would break the analysis into 3 parts in 3 different posts to make it simpler. All our calculations will be in 3-Dimensional to reveal the composite geometric figures in motion To begin with, lets remind ourselves that a golden triangle which is also an Isosceles triangle has two sides equal in length and a 3rd side which is the base. Radius Vector of a swing = Square root For Cycle ABC: Vector AB = root = 1103 units Vector BC = root = 394 units Vector AC = root = 1140 units Notice that radius vectors AB and AC have approximately the same lengths and they form 2 sides of the golden triangle or an Isosceles triangle. Vector BC is the base of the triangle and is approximately 3 times the sides AB and AC . 394 * 2.9 = 1142 units Vector CD = root = 1126 units CD is also approximately the same length with AB and completes the harmonic AB=CD pattern. Vector CD also defines the origin of the next growth phase or triangle DEF For Cycle DEF: Vector DE = root = 663 units DE is the base of triangle DEF and is 1.667 expansion of the first base BC 394 * 1.667 = 657 units (short of 6 units) Vector DF = root = 2809 units Vector EF = root = 2839 units The chart for DF and EF would be shown on next post but notice that vectors DF and EF are also two sides of equal length and the base is 663 units 663 * 4.236 = 2808.47 = DF 663 * 4.272 = 2832.24 = EF Now, this shows clearly that the sides of the 2nd triangle, DEF is 3 times the sides of the 1st triangle ABC and the base DE is 1.667 expansion of base BC . (Base DE and BC are shown in blue on the chart) AB = 1103 units AC = 1140 units DF = 2809 units EF = 2839 units The numbers 1, 2 and 3 are successive numbers in the Fibonacci series and the next number is 5. The base expansion is 1 : 1.667 and the next base should have a value of 2 for a complete growth spiral. Please check next post for continuation.
OANDA:XPDUSDLong
by Fairmont-Markets
PALLADIUM LONG TERM 3-DIMENSIONAL ANALYSISONE FROM OUR PRIVATE TRADES Today we would discuss the current price structure of the Palladium market. We would break the analysis into 3 parts in 3 different posts to make it simpler. All our calculations will be in 3-Dimensional to reveal the composite geometric figures in motion To begin with, lets remind ourselves that a golden triangle which is also an Isosceles triangle has two sides equal in length and a 3rd side which is the base. Radius Vector of a swing = Square root For Cycle ABC: Vector AB = root = 1103 units Vector BC = root = 394 units Vector AC = root = 1140 units Notice that radius vectors AB and AC have approximately the same lengths and they form 2 sides of the golden triangle or an Isosceles triangle. Vector BC is the base of the triangle and is approximately 3 times the sides AB and AC . 394 * 2.9 = 1142 units Vector CD = root = 1126 units CD is also approximately the same length with AB and completes the harmonic AB=CD pattern. Vector CD also defines the origin of the next growth phase or triangle DEF For Cycle DEF: Vector DE = root = 663 units DE is the base of triangle DEF and is 1.667 expansion of the first base BC 394 * 1.667 = 657 units (short of 6 units) Vector DF = root = 2809 units Vector EF = root = 2839 units The chart for DF and EF would be shown on next post but notice that vectors DF and EF are also two sides of equal length and the base is 663 units 663 * 4.236 = 2808.47 = DF 663 * 4.272 = 2832.24 = EF Now, this shows clearly that the sides of the 2nd triangle, DEF is 3 times the sides of the 1st triangle ABC and the base DE is 1.667 expansion of base BC . (Base DE and BC are shown in blue on the chart) AB = 1103 units AC = 1140 units DF = 2809 units EF = 2839 units The numbers 1, 2 and 3 are successive numbers in the Fibonacci series and the next number is 5. The base expansion is 1 : 1.667 and the next base should have a value of 2 for a complete growth spiral. Please check next post for continuation.
OANDA:XPDUSDLong
by Fairmont-Markets
2