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Palladium (XPDUSD)

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PALLADIUM trade ideas

The anatomy of an Asset bubble (PALLADIUM)As shown in the chart, ive been talking about a palladium bubble for a very long time now. Now we can see the result of investor greed and momentum investing gone sour. At section #1, the BIG parabolic move indicating we are close to the top. #2, the loss of momentum, smart money has sold into the strength, the new high is created by greedy investors. #3 A quick flash crash followed by a ''return to normal''. This final section were seeing now also reffered to as a ''bulltrap'' tends to fool many investors and for good reason, the volatility is astounding. Be careful has as the retrace is mostly over, get ready to continue shorting as another down leg (#4) is almost sure to ensue.
TVC:PALLADIUMShort
by MysteriousPersian
Palladium Looks Done (trendlines, MAs, and Fib)First is simple support and resistance. The black line is currently acting as resistance and there was a clear rejection from our that trendline. This trendline over 20 years old, it is not to be taken lightly. The purple trendline is a mere three years old but intersects the price action at the same wick. There are also the orange support lines and I am looking for each of them to turn from support to resistance. If that should happen it would be a clear indication to go short. Much like the green circle, we could see price action struggle there for some time so tunneling down for some lower time frame structure and divergences would be a good idea. You want to think several moves ahead but only put your order one one or two steps ahead so your money isn't too tied up. This move was extraordinarily impulsive and this over-performance should lead to extended under performance. Expect the 20M SMA to offer almost no protection/support when this thing gets moving and so far the 50M looks like a pace we will consolidate before moving lower. After this move I would expect a massive amount of giveback. Palladium has given back over 78% of a move before and I would not be surprised to see it do the same again. The interesting thing is in the last two recessions Palladium continued upward and had a blow off top while the S&P was already in decline. So, either this time is different and people are taking their profits early, or we might have one final up leg. Now, we have a short trading week and a couple of days to end off the year so I don't see much happening to reverse the monthly candle on Palladium is going to improve much. Finally, I am not looking to trade this. I am doing this post because I am looking at the "Everything Bubble" versus the "Almost Everything Bubble" debate. Lots of people are looking for precious metals to be a store of value in potential hard economic times and the charts are showing a serious potential that precious metals are in a bubble that hasn't corrected yet. I have made the case in other posts that I think Gold is about to perform is C Elliot Wave, Silver is half way through the A wave, and bitcoin is part way through the C wave. Palladium looks like it is done with wave 5 and about to start its ABC, which is why I am looking for support lines to become resistance. We are in a set of circumstances where precious metals have schizophrenic divergences between the charts and traders expectations. Look at silver. People are calling for all time highs, and I certainly see the case for it, but it certainly looks like we are in a fractal were we head lower, not higher. And this is on silver, which so many people are expecting to outperform gold based on a higher beta and the gold/silver ratio being an all time high favor of gold. The chart below looks like silver is going to drop to hell. Look at Silver/Palladium. It looks like silver is going to gore palladium like a bull at this point, but the silver chart itself has some serious bearish problems. Silver looks like if you want to hold your metals while they drop in value it is the metal do to it in.
TVC:PALLADIUMShort
by This_Guhy
16
Palladium Resting At The 50 Simple Moving AveragePalladium has seen a strong rise since August 2019 with nice trends ranging from 18% to 38% following periods of pullbacks. This has been an overall growth of 106% over a period of 7 months. As with every trend, there will be pullbacks along the way and we are experiencing another one at the moment. When price pulls back, we always want to look for areas of support that price may come towards. Price usually bounces off areas of support but if support levels are broken it may indicate further weakness to come. Price has pulled back to the 50sma which is currently holding and helping to keep price up. The last time price hit the 50sma was in November 2019 and we saw a strong trend that followed. If price can do the same going forward then we need to see momentum to the upside which can push price above the $2,500 round number. Followed by that we need price to break and close above the current high at $2,875 and the $3,000 round number. If these levels are broken then we should continue to see Palladium soar to even greater heights. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by Sublime_Trading