PALLADIUM LONG TERM 3-DIMENSIONAL ANALYSISONE FROM OUR PRIVATE TRADES
Today we would discuss the current price structure of the Palladium market.
We would break the analysis into 3 parts in 3 different posts to make it simpler.
All our calculations will be in 3-Dimensional to reveal the composite geometric figures in motion
To begin with, lets remind ourselves that a golden triangle which is also an Isosceles triangle has
two sides equal in length and a 3rd side which is the base.
Radius Vector of a swing = Square root
For Cycle ABC:
Vector AB = root = 1103 units
Vector BC = root = 394 units
Vector AC = root = 1140 units
Notice that radius vectors AB and AC have approximately the same lengths and they form 2 sides of the golden triangle or an Isosceles triangle. Vector BC is the base of the triangle and is approximately 3 times the sides AB and AC .
394 * 2.9 = 1142 units
Vector CD = root = 1126 units
CD is also approximately the same length with AB and completes the harmonic AB=CD pattern.
Vector CD also defines the origin of the next growth phase or triangle DEF
For Cycle DEF:
Vector DE = root = 663 units
DE is the base of triangle DEF and is 1.667 expansion of the first base BC
394 * 1.667 = 657 units (short of 6 units)
Vector DF = root = 2809 units
Vector EF = root = 2839 units
The chart for DF and EF would be shown on next post but notice that vectors DF and EF are also
two sides of equal length and the base is 663 units
663 * 4.236 = 2808.47 = DF
663 * 4.272 = 2832.24 = EF
Now, this shows clearly that the sides of the 2nd triangle, DEF is 3 times the sides of the 1st triangle ABC
and the base DE is 1.667 expansion of base BC . (Base DE and BC are shown in blue on the chart)
AB = 1103 units
AC = 1140 units
DF = 2809 units
EF = 2839 units
The numbers 1, 2 and 3 are successive numbers in the Fibonacci series and the next number is 5.
The base expansion is 1 : 1.667 and the next base should have a value of 2 for a complete growth spiral.
Please check next post for continuation.
PALLADIUM trade ideas
After a huge run!Palladium is in a bearish and high volatility mood. In my opinion, it is in wave C from a high of 31 march.
It has been correcting 6 of April in a typical corrective channel. I would like to see a breakdown out of this channel with high momentum, then the accelerating fall would come which should drive the price of palladium below 1500 near to 1000
Waiting for the break
Palladium may still drop a bit, but best believe it is bullishDemand will resume soon which means price will go up. Exactly when is hard to say, but it is sound logic. Palladium is needed for your car, when factories open up again, it is obvious what is going to happen. We have touched the first Fib. level and now appear to be going sideways. We could still drop to the Golden ratio but this could be an accumulation phase.
Palladium (XPDUSD): The end of its parabolic rise.Palladium has been rising non-stop for 4 years (since January 2016), a rise that after 2019 turned parabolic. This parabola has broken down this March as the pull back exceeded the 0.382 Fibonacci level that has been holding in the previous two cyclical pull backs (August 2018 and May 2019).
The 1W chart is on a neutral state (RSI = 53.141, MACD = 105.160, ADX = 39.528) as it has recovered 50% of the March sell-off, however the danger is far from over. Until the 2,900 High breaks, Palladium (XPDUSD) will most likely remain under selling pressure and the Higher Low trend line (red line) which has been supporting the 4 year uptrend may be tested. This test involves the 1W MA200 (orange line) both of which (HL trend line and MA200) can 'meet' on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (of the whole 4 year move). This (0.618 Fib) is at 1,390. If that breaks to then the next Support and potential sell target will be on the 0.786 Fib at 980 where Palladium can again start looking like a strong investment.
Keep in mind that we have been strong Palladium supporters for quite some time:
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PALLADIUM PointersTrading in middle of 1 - 1/2 Gann structure, a bullish scythe can be observed however it doesn't look that strong, do divergences continue through price lines? just curious. Clear fractal can be observed with these bearish divergences. Best to go long in this scenario, major precious metals will see large increases with global uncertainty rising.
XPDUSD | More DownsidePlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
Price was rejected by Resistance Node (50 MA, Ichi Cloud and the Resistance Trendline of the Descending Channel). It's more likely to continue the decline and retest the 200 MA
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advice.
Maybe toppingBreaking the support zone, and a structure wave B seems to be ready. Not crystal clear, but maybe ready.
So I expect to see a five-wave falling and the acceleration come.
There is a huge expectation because a would like to see a new low somewhere 1500, but I could compromise in a double bottom.
Palladium Rests Before It Makes Its Next MovePalladium trended really well from May 2019 to February 2020 and was set to reach the $3,000
round number but the current pandemic had other plans for the economy.
We soon saw a sharp decline in price, falling 47% in under 3 weeks, wiping out 6 months of gains
in a fraction of the time.
We are now seeing a different kind of behaviour in this commodity and price has become
unpredictable. This may be due to the fact that price may be entering consolidation following
the strong bullish trend.
During the trend, price used the 50sma as support to help it gain momentum to the upside, but now
the 50sma has turned to resistance which may help to force price down.
If we continue to see weakness then the next area of support is the $2,000 round number followed
by the 200sma.
Because we are seeing uncertainty in Palladium, the safest option is to wait for a break and close
above the current all-time high at $2,875 followed by the $3,000 round number.
While this commodity sets up for its next trend, which may take a while, we are focusing our attention
on forex pairs that are trending and we are also potentially looking for shorting opportunities in the stock market.
We will be looking at some shorting opportunities in our free Facebook group and we also cover this in our
4-Part series from the link below.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Palladium - showing the way forward?I'm interested in what is going on at the moment in this metal due mainly to it's decent correlation to the Nasdaq. Is there another leg up coming some time soon? The background chart is the Nasdaq 100.
Palladium - deeper correction before resuming uptrendPalladium has rallied strongly since a swift A wave down and I reckon this could be shaping up for a classic zigzag as this count suggests. Palladium has a decent correlation with the Nasdaq so if this count turns out to be right then we might also expect a good showing the US equities once again some time soon.
The anatomy of an Asset bubble (PALLADIUM)As shown in the chart, ive been talking about a palladium bubble for a very long time now. Now we can see the result of investor greed and momentum investing gone sour.
At section #1, the BIG parabolic move indicating we are close to the top.
#2, the loss of momentum, smart money has sold into the strength, the new high is created by greedy investors.
#3 A quick flash crash followed by a ''return to normal''. This final section were seeing now also reffered to as a ''bulltrap'' tends to fool many investors and for good reason, the volatility is astounding.
Be careful has as the retrace is mostly over, get ready to continue shorting as another down leg (#4) is almost sure to ensue.