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JPN225 trade ideas

Jamie Gun2Head - Selling NikkeiTrade Idea: Selling Nikkei Reasoning: Targeting 78.6% Fibonacci, price breaking below support Entry Level: 26708 Take Profit Level: 25893 Stop Loss: 26871 Risk Reward Ratio 5:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:JP225Short
by Signal_Centre
Japan offers an avenue in a violent global value rotation2022 has marked a turn of events for Japan. The once regarded safe haven yen, has declined the most (-11.3%) among G101 currencies this year2. A large part of the Yen’s decline is rooted in the widening of policy divergence between the US and Japan. China, alongside Japan, is the only real major economy easing policy in 2022. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) also recently announced unlimited buying of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to stem any movement higher in long-term borrowing costs above 25 basis points (bps). This divergence in policy stance is even more apparent with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plan to reduce its large balance sheet through a “fast runoff” that might pressure the long end of the US yield curve higher. Historically very low interest rates in Japan made borrowing in Yen attractive. But now with other currencies in a similar position of offering zero (or negative) rates on the currency many years out, the Yen lost its competitive edge on the famous carry trade. Hedging costs are now rising along with global short-term rates, particularly in the US. This could cause even more Yen selling as investors’ demands for US dollars increase, and they seek the higher levels of interest rates available in the US markets without hedging the currency’s movements. The weaker Yen bolsters the case for Japanese exporters The weaker Yen has widespread implications for the Japanese equities since Japan is a market that generates a large portion of its revenue from global markets. So, a weaker Yen supports its profit outlook, thereby making Japanese exporters more competitive than global peers. This theory was validated on March 25, in an address to the Japanese parliament by the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who said, “There is no change in the basic structure that a weaker yen has positive effects on the Japanese economy by pushing up the overall economy and prices.” A January report from the BOJ estimated that a 10% depreciation in the yen would push up Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 1%3. Japan’s energy sector to witness a shift to nuclear power While much of the attention remains on the weaker Yen’s impact on exporters, it’s important to note that a weaker Yen also raises the costs of imports. Japan’s trade deficit widened to US$3.2Bn in March largely due to soaring energy costs. However, Russia’s war in Ukraine strengthens the case for Japan to shift its energy policy in favour of restarting nuclear power. During a speech in London on May 5, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that Japan would turn to its nuclear reactors to help reduce the country’s dependence on Russian fuel. He asserted Japan’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050 and the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 46% by 2030 while ensuring a stable energy supply. Growth in Japanese dividends lure investors Inflation has remained worryingly high in the US and Europe and surprisingly low in Japan. Owing to which, high dividend paying strategies have thrived in 2022. Interestingly, since the pandemic, Japanese dividends have grown more than major regions from the US to Europe and emerging markets. While European dividends have contracted more than 10%, Japanese dividends have grown almost 18%, measured in local currency terms. Given the conservative pay-out ratios of Japanese companies—which helped buffer dividend cuts in 2020—Japan tends to have a lower dividend yield than Europe, where dividend payments can be more cyclical. Adopting a hedged Japanese exposure Amidst rising geopolitical risks, Japanese equity markets performance have withstood the ensuing volatility better than most of its developed market peers in 2022 in local currency terms. However, when measured in foreign currency terms i.e., the US dollar or EUR terms the losses are magnified on the downside due to the weakness of the Yen (as shown below). This goes to a point we often make - currency changes do not need to impact your foreign return, and you can target that local market return by hedging your currency risk. A hedged Japanese dividend paying equity exposure could enable an investor to hedge their exposure to the Yen. Valuations remain attractive both historically and compared to developed markets. US equity earnings multiples are trading at a 20% premium while Japan is priced at a 15% discount to its historical medium . The ensuing rotation from growth to value remains an attractive environment for value-oriented cyclical and industrial companies which are dominant in Japanese equity markets. Sources 1 The Group of Ten or G10 is a group of 11 industrialized nations that have similar economic interests. 2 Bloomberg from 31 December 2021 to 11 May 2022. 3 “Outlook for Economic Activity and Price,” Bank of Japan, January 2022. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
INDEX:NKY
by aneekaguptaWTE
Historic bull failure signal - 1990Here's where the big breaking of the bull trend came in the Nikkei of 1990. Here's where the big breaking of the bull trend came in the DJI of 1929. The breaking of this 161 level has been the best leading signal of major market failure. DJI Nikkei SPX? Here we always bounce from the 161 to just over the 127 fib. If this signal is in play, someone would be able to make a forecast of the hard crash coming from around 4150. Historically markets top when they reject the 161 of the last big drop, and they capitulation when they break the 161 of the topping swing. We have both of these now.
TVC:NI225Short
by holeyprofit
3
Jamie Gun2head - Selling JPXJPYTrade Idea: Selling JPXJPY Reasoning: Breaking trendlines, looking for an extended selloff Entry Level: 27753 Take Profit Level: 27029 Stop Loss: 27923 Risk/Reward: 4.26:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:JP225Short
by Signal_Centre
How we made 7.26% in May with 63% win rate while markets fell Last month when markets took a beating, we were able to make 4% within 11 days of trading using trading view to help track our trades. The month of May was a really volatile month and it took some courage to get back to where we are today. As you can see from our equity curve, we were down about 7% midway through the month and staring down a gun barrel. teenfxtrader.wordpress.com Here are some very important lessons that we learnt from our trading from the month of May. 1) Do not get into markets that you don't understand before testing them out thoroughly. - We started getting into indexes and especially the JPN225. What we didn't realize is that this pair moves really fast and can either wipe you out and make you lots of money. We lost 4% on the first trade but made 12% on the next. Still not sure whether we should trade this but if a good opportunity comes up why not? Just keep your positions super small. 2) Risk control is so important even if you are losing - - It is so easy to lose your marbles when you are down 7% in the first 15 days. However we need to accept that losing trades will happen and the only way you can control it is by not risking too much. Your account will ebb and flow. Some weeks are just flat. Sometimes you can have a quarter where you are totally flat and I am sure that will happen for us soon as well. 3) Winning percentages means nothing - We have always been taught in school that you are a loser if you do not get 80% and above. In trading, losing 40% of your trades is still okay as long as you lose with dignity. This month we lost 37% of our trades but yet made 7.26% by holding on to our winners. Where do we see the market going in June 2022? The past 2 weeks has been bullish. This is not the end of the market crash unfortunately. It is call a bear rally or a bull trap and we are likely to see the markets being pushed down to the previous lows. We still believe the target for DJIA is 26,000 and the S&P will reach 3600 within the next 3-4 months. In the meantime, we plan to take small trades to help us grow our equity as we have done in the last 45 days. In the meantime, we are looking at a sell of JPN225 at the level marked out but it is an uptrend so we may go long until this price is reached for the sell. Good luck!
BLACKBULL:JPN225Short
by JD_TeenTrader
NIKKEI A great opportunity to invest. 7 years recurring pattern.The Nikkei index (NI225) has been on a strong correction phase since its September Highs. Despite the early March rebound just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), it was rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) pulling the index back towards the lows. Notice on this chart, however, that the March rebound was performed on a Higher Lows trend-line that is holding for almost 10 years, since October 2012. It was on that trend-line that Nikkei made the bottoms of June 2016, December 2018 and August 2019 and rebounded. Interestingly enough on all cases that was on or marginally around the 1W MA200. The only exception to that was the global asset crash of March 2020 due to the COVID pandemic, which of course is classified as a Black Swan event, and was the only time that the Higher Lows trend-line broke. As a result, we have a 7 year sample of corrections that end with a bottom on the 1W MA200 and/or the Higher Lows trend-line. At the same time, when the 1W RSI makes Higher lows following an (near) test of the 30.00 oversold level, it indicates that the bottom of the correction is in and the index starts a new Bull Phase. This indicates that the current level is a confirmed long-term buy opportunity on Nikkei. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:NI225Long
by TradingShot
5